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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch passed 7m sold units in Japan

PAOerfulone said:
Shiken said:

I have my reservations about Switch catching the DS/3DS as well, but it is still too early to tell.  We still have the next mainline Pokemon game and Animal Crossing, so I think after year 3 will be a good point to draw some more accurate predictions.

 

However 20-25 mil seems like a reasonable guess in my book.  It is likely we will see a Switch 2 being announced in year 4 and dropping in year 5, since eventually they will need to get closer to the PS5.  When that happens, sales will slow as people wait for the new device to drop.

The DS is out of reach in my view. It'll be a while before we see another system reach those numbers, maybe the Switch 2 can do it if Nintendo makes it fully backwards compatible and does exactly the same things they're doing with the Switch now, only double down on the marketing and support. But that won't be until waaay down the road, so I digress.

I do think it has a good chance to catch the 3DS. The 3DS is pretty much finished. It's not going to grow much more than where it is now. I'm thinking somewhere around 24.5 million will be its final tally. The Switch can reach that. As I stated in an earlier comment, it may be falling behind the 3DS in Japan right now, but the 3DS peaked very early. If fact, we just passed the 3DS' peak year, it's 2nd year (2012) whereas the Switch's peak years have yet to come. So, I think starting in 2020 is when it'll noticeably start to close the gap with the 3DS and eventually, once it gets close to the end of its cycle, it will overtake the 3DS.

And I highly doubt that we will get Switch 2 in 2022 (Switch's 5th year). Especially if the Switch continues to track well ahead of the 3DS' global sales like it has. The Switch was released in March 2017 and by that point, the 3DS had been on the market for about 6 years. So anything shorter than 6 years for the Switch would be cutting its legs off from underneath and, in my opinion, a big mistake on Nintendo's part.

As far as the PS5 and its potential effect on Switch sales are concerned, I side with Kerotan in that I don't see how one could effect the other. By the time the PS5 comes out, more than likely in late 2020, Nintendo will have made the adjustment, or start doing so by that point, of marketing and selling the Switch as a handheld device that can be played like a console. Right now, they are marketing the Switch primarily as a console you can take on the go like a portable and its price point of $300 has a lot to do with that, I feel. By that point, it will be at either $250, or even $200 if we get a revision of sorts that helps bring it down to that price. From that point onwards, they'll market the Switch as a handheld capable of HD quality games you can play on your TV. All the while, they'll be drawing in more and more of their handheld/portable audience who were waiting for the Switch to get to that handheld price range for them to make the purchase. Plus, there's the Switch Pro/X/i, whichever you prefer, that will fill the niche for those who want stronger, upgraded hardware.

Meanwhile, the PS5 will be launching at probably $400; At most, $500. And at those launch prices, the vast majority of people who will by the system are the early adapters and/or diehard, loyal PlayStation fans who are eager to get the newest system while the mainstream audience will wait for a price cut to a more affordable range and for its library to build and grow over time. Sony and Nintendo will be going for totally different audiences here and one company's performance and success will have little to no effect on the other's. 

The Switch has the advantages of being their first ever hybrid. So the benefits of a console but with portability. It also has the full force of Nintendo games development focused on one platform instead of two. 

 

I don't think a switch 2 will have the same effect. It will sell well but not as well imo. 



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Kerotan said:
Miyamotoo said:

US represents biggest part of Americas, I at least have some numbers, you didn't give anything.

Lol, I didnt want to bet because I know there is possibility that X360 sold more, but I wanted proof for that, proof that you couldnt provide.

 

Tnx.

The burden of proof is on you. You wanted proof. I already knew it sold more and needed motivation to do your digging. 

 

And don't take solace in the fact you gave numbers for the Americas. It would be like me providing Asian numbers when talking about Japan. It would be Ludicrous. 


It doesn't works like that, if you claiming something than you provide something to backup your claims, especially when we comparing sales numbers and no one provided sales number or any proof that X360 did sold better.

Again, I at least gave some official numbers and from Americas number is to easy to make statement that US are around 90% sales of Americas, on other hand you didnt provide even America's number for X360 not to mention US.



Kerotan said:
peachbuggy said:

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/games.php?name=&keyword=&console=NS®ion=Japan&developer=&publisher=Nintendo&goty_year=&genre=&boxart=Both&banner=Both&ownership=Both&results=50&order=Sales&showtotalsales=0&showtotalsales=1&showpublisher=0&showpublisher=1&showvgchartzscore=0&shownasales=0&shownasales=1&showdeveloper=0&showcriticscore=0&showpalsales=0&showpalsales=1&showreleasedate=0&showuserscore=0&showjapansales=0&showjapansales=1&showlastupdate=0&showlastupdate=1&showothersales=0&showothersales=1&showshipped=0

 

Please tell me in what universe half of these are ports.

Ports and sequels to Wii U games. The point I'm making is that anyone who bought the Wii U will find the Switch extremely attractive. So why say only 3ds and Vita bases are buying the Switch and not Wii U. That's what is being discussed and I feel my point is valid. 

It's a massive stretch to say half of those are ports though. It was about 20 titles that weren't to 7 that were ports when i had a count up.



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Kerotan said:
PAOerfulone said:

The DS is out of reach in my view. It'll be a while before we see another system reach those numbers, maybe the Switch 2 can do it if Nintendo makes it fully backwards compatible and does exactly the same things they're doing with the Switch now, only double down on the marketing and support. But that won't be until waaay down the road, so I digress.

I do think it has a good chance to catch the 3DS. The 3DS is pretty much finished. It's not going to grow much more than where it is now. I'm thinking somewhere around 24.5 million will be its final tally. The Switch can reach that. As I stated in an earlier comment, it may be falling behind the 3DS in Japan right now, but the 3DS peaked very early. If fact, we just passed the 3DS' peak year, it's 2nd year (2012) whereas the Switch's peak years have yet to come. So, I think starting in 2020 is when it'll noticeably start to close the gap with the 3DS and eventually, once it gets close to the end of its cycle, it will overtake the 3DS.

And I highly doubt that we will get Switch 2 in 2022 (Switch's 5th year). Especially if the Switch continues to track well ahead of the 3DS' global sales like it has. The Switch was released in March 2017 and by that point, the 3DS had been on the market for about 6 years. So anything shorter than 6 years for the Switch would be cutting its legs off from underneath and, in my opinion, a big mistake on Nintendo's part.

As far as the PS5 and its potential effect on Switch sales are concerned, I side with Kerotan in that I don't see how one could effect the other. By the time the PS5 comes out, more than likely in late 2020, Nintendo will have made the adjustment, or start doing so by that point, of marketing and selling the Switch as a handheld device that can be played like a console. Right now, they are marketing the Switch primarily as a console you can take on the go like a portable and its price point of $300 has a lot to do with that, I feel. By that point, it will be at either $250, or even $200 if we get a revision of sorts that helps bring it down to that price. From that point onwards, they'll market the Switch as a handheld capable of HD quality games you can play on your TV. All the while, they'll be drawing in more and more of their handheld/portable audience who were waiting for the Switch to get to that handheld price range for them to make the purchase. Plus, there's the Switch Pro/X/i, whichever you prefer, that will fill the niche for those who want stronger, upgraded hardware.

Meanwhile, the PS5 will be launching at probably $400; At most, $500. And at those launch prices, the vast majority of people who will by the system are the early adapters and/or diehard, loyal PlayStation fans who are eager to get the newest system while the mainstream audience will wait for a price cut to a more affordable range and for its library to build and grow over time. Sony and Nintendo will be going for totally different audiences here and one company's performance and success will have little to no effect on the other's. 

The Switch has the advantages of being their first ever hybrid. So the benefits of a console but with portability. It also has the full force of Nintendo games development focused on one platform instead of two. 

I don't think a switch 2 will have the same effect. It will sell well but not as well imo. 

Actualy Switch 2 could have even bigger popularity and sales because Switch 2 could have much stronger 3rd party support than current Switch has, current Switch coming after Wii U that was disasster and plenty of 3rd parties didn't want to release games for new Nintendo console after Wii U, but Switch 2 that would essentially be improved Switch and that coming after very successful Switch means 3rd parties can be much more confident in Switch 2 success and what they could expect for it. And whats more important, hybrid concept is here to stay, hybrid concept is not same thing like for instance Wii motion controls that was only current novality and popularity, hybrid concept can only be even more popular in future.

 

Kerotan said: 
The_Liquid_Laser said: 

In Japan?  Doesn't really matter.  The Wii U is even more niche than the PS4.

Well if Vita matters the Wii U matters in the context of this conversation. And considering half the switches 1st party line up are Wii U ports I'd say it definitely should be included. 

From list of VGHz list, around 1/4 of games are ports, so you are not even close with yours half of Switch games are ports.



Kerotan said:
Shiken said:

I have my reservations about Switch catching the DS/3DS as well, but it is still too early to tell.  We still have the next mainline Pokemon game and Animal Crossing, so I think after year 3 will be a good point to draw some more accurate predictions.

 

However 20-25 mil seems like a reasonable guess in my book.  It is likely we will see a Switch 2 being announced in year 4 and dropping in year 5, since eventually they will need to get closer to the PS5.  When that happens, sales will slow as people wait for the new device to drop.

They may do a switch Pro but noway do they do switch 2 so soon. Switch didnt stop ps4 doing good sales and ps5 won't stop switch doing good sales. 

I am talking about year 5 when it comes to Switch 2.  Nintendo typically comes out with new Hardware after 5 years.



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Miyamotoo said:
Kerotan said:

The burden of proof is on you. You wanted proof. I already knew it sold more and needed motivation to do your digging. 

 

And don't take solace in the fact you gave numbers for the Americas. It would be like me providing Asian numbers when talking about Japan. It would be Ludicrous. 


It doesn't works like that, if you claiming something than you provide something to backup your claims, especially when we comparing sales numbers and no one provided sales number or any proof that X360 did sold better.

Again, I at least gave some official numbers and from Americas number is to easy to make statement that US are around 90% sales of Americas, on other hand you didnt provide even America's number for X360 not to mention US.

So in your case when you are burdened to prove you provide numbers not relevant to the case at all. Ok Gotcha. 



Acevil said:
DonFerrari said:

Holy moses, I thought Wii or PS2 still had it. Congrats Switch.

Ya, the wording was recorded history, which includes both of those. However I wonder how SNES did. 

Well I did great, but market at that time was a smaller and slower as far as I can tell. So it is even possible that for the first year or two even PS4 was ahead of SNES (can't prove and won't bother on being wrong).

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

And on gaming ofering for the japanese Vita probably had a lot more than PS4 as well.

I'm not so sure about that, PS4 has Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Metal Gear Solid, Tekken, Gran Turismo, Resident Evil, God Eater, Dynasty Warriors, Hot Shots Golf, Street Fighter, Persona, Star Ocean, Tales of, Dragon Ball and soon to be Kingdom Hearts.

Basically all the big Japanese properties not by Nintendo/Level 5 and these were the franchises that pushed PS1/PS2/PSP to ~20 million sales in Japan.

Well you are probably right. If PS4 as a console outsold a handheld in Japan then it probably had more games to their taste.

PAOerfulone said:
Shiken said:

I have my reservations about Switch catching the DS/3DS as well, but it is still too early to tell.  We still have the next mainline Pokemon game and Animal Crossing, so I think after year 3 will be a good point to draw some more accurate predictions.

 

However 20-25 mil seems like a reasonable guess in my book.  It is likely we will see a Switch 2 being announced in year 4 and dropping in year 5, since eventually they will need to get closer to the PS5.  When that happens, sales will slow as people wait for the new device to drop.

The DS is out of reach in my view. It'll be a while before we see another system reach those numbers, maybe the Switch 2 can do it if Nintendo makes it fully backwards compatible and does exactly the same things they're doing with the Switch now, only double down on the marketing and support. But that won't be until waaay down the road, so I digress.

I do think it has a good chance to catch the 3DS. The 3DS is pretty much finished. It's not going to grow much more than where it is now. I'm thinking somewhere around 24.5 million will be its final tally. The Switch can reach that. As I stated in an earlier comment, it may be falling behind the 3DS in Japan right now, but the 3DS peaked very early. If fact, we just passed the 3DS' peak year, it's 2nd year (2012) whereas the Switch's peak years have yet to come. So, I think starting in 2020 is when it'll noticeably start to close the gap with the 3DS and eventually, once it gets close to the end of its cycle, it will overtake the 3DS.

And I highly doubt that we will get Switch 2 in 2022 (Switch's 5th year). Especially if the Switch continues to track well ahead of the 3DS' global sales like it has. The Switch was released in March 2017 and by that point, the 3DS had been on the market for about 6 years. So anything shorter than 6 years for the Switch would be cutting its legs off from underneath and, in my opinion, a big mistake on Nintendo's part.

As far as the PS5 and its potential effect on Switch sales are concerned, I side with Kerotan in that I don't see how one could effect the other. By the time the PS5 comes out, more than likely in late 2020, Nintendo will have made the adjustment, or start doing so by that point, of marketing and selling the Switch as a handheld device that can be played like a console. Right now, they are marketing the Switch primarily as a console you can take on the go like a portable and its price point of $300 has a lot to do with that, I feel. By that point, it will be at either $250, or even $200 if we get a revision of sorts that helps bring it down to that price. From that point onwards, they'll market the Switch as a handheld capable of HD quality games you can play on your TV. All the while, they'll be drawing in more and more of their handheld/portable audience who were waiting for the Switch to get to that handheld price range for them to make the purchase. Plus, there's the Switch Pro/X/i, whichever you prefer, that will fill the niche for those who want stronger, upgraded hardware.

Meanwhile, the PS5 will be launching at probably $400; At most, $500. And at those launch prices, the vast majority of people who will by the system are the early adapters and/or diehard, loyal PlayStation fans who are eager to get the newest system while the mainstream audience will wait for a price cut to a more affordable range and for its library to build and grow over time. Sony and Nintendo will be going for totally different audiences here and one company's performance and success will have little to no effect on the other's. 

If Switch by 2020 is still 250 Nintendo will be ripping off customers and making a pretty dolar on it. 200 USD is more likely.

And about the point of kerotan and Switch 2 making less success because it won't be a novelty like Switch... PS2 sold much more than PS1 being just an improvement over the previous without nothing really changing dramatically.

So if Switch 2 can improve on key areas it can sell more than Switch 1 (although we have seem that the systems Nintendo made as just evolution of the previous didn't do that well compared to the predecessor NES->SNES, GB->GBA, DS->3DS, Wii->WiiU).

Kerotan said:
Miyamotoo said:


It doesn't works like that, if you claiming something than you provide something to backup your claims, especially when we comparing sales numbers and no one provided sales number or any proof that X360 did sold better.

Again, I at least gave some official numbers and from Americas number is to easy to make statement that US are around 90% sales of Americas, on other hand you didnt provide even America's number for X360 not to mention US.

So in your case when you are burdened to prove you provide numbers not relevant to the case at all. Ok Gotcha. 

And he won't own that he was wrong, and based his conclusion on wrong numbers.

And considering how long he have been on this site, to miss out all the threads and news made about X360 passing Wii at the end of the gen.

Better to brag that he at least got some numbers. Next time we discuss with he, maybe he will bring numbers from UK, and use some generic "USA sells like 3 times as much as UK, so this I multiply the sales on UK and get USA".



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DonFerrari said: 
Kerotan said:

So in your case when you are burdened to prove you provide numbers not relevant to the case at all. Ok Gotcha. 

And he won't own that he was wrong, and based his conclusion on wrong numbers. And considering how long he have been on this site, to miss out all the threads and news made about X360 passing Wii at the end of the gen.

Better to brag that he at least got some numbers. Next time we discuss with he, maybe he will bring numbers from UK, and use some generic "USA sells like 3 times as much as UK, so this I multiply the sales on UK and get USA".

Did you provided any source like a proof that X360 sold more than Wii? No you didnt, but if you did from start I could admit I am wrong. One user provided tweet from Mat from NPD that he confirmed that X360 sold more than Wii, and for me thats enough that I admit I am wrong. And no, I didnt saw all the threads X360 passing Wii in US or maybe I saw them and forget them. But I remember threads that PS3/360 will sell more than Wii world wide, and those were wrong.

Bragging? :D  Don't be silly, Its not point about braging, but when you claim something at least gave numbers and sources that supports your claims, Kerotan didnt do neither of those things.

 

Kerotan said: 
Miyamotoo said: 


It doesn't works like that, if you claiming something than you provide something to backup your claims, especially when we comparing sales numbers and no one provided sales number or any proof that X360 did sold better.

Again, I at least gave some official numbers and from Americas number is to easy to make statement that US are around 90% sales of Americas, on other hand you didnt provide even America's number for X360 not to mention US.

So in your case when you are burdened to prove you provide numbers not relevant to the case at all. Ok Gotcha. 

Saying that Americans numbers are not relevant to US numbers is wrong (because we know that around 90% of those numbers goes for US alone), same like it dont make any sense to arguing who sold more without providing any numbers for comparison or sources like you are doing.

But again, nothing new from you, like always you do similar things when comes to Nintendo, making claims without any arguments or source and very offten being wrong like you already done in this thread.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 14 January 2019

Kerotan said:
peachbuggy said:

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/games.php?name=&keyword=&console=NS®ion=Japan&developer=&publisher=Nintendo&goty_year=&genre=&boxart=Both&banner=Both&ownership=Both&results=50&order=Sales&showtotalsales=0&showtotalsales=1&showpublisher=0&showpublisher=1&showvgchartzscore=0&shownasales=0&shownasales=1&showdeveloper=0&showcriticscore=0&showpalsales=0&showpalsales=1&showreleasedate=0&showuserscore=0&showjapansales=0&showjapansales=1&showlastupdate=0&showlastupdate=1&showothersales=0&showothersales=1&showshipped=0

 

Please tell me in what universe half of these are ports.

Ports and sequels to Wii U games. The point I'm making is that anyone who bought the Wii U will find the Switch extremely attractive. So why say only 3ds and Vita bases are buying the Switch and not Wii U. That's what is being discussed and I feel my point is valid. 

 

Sequels to Wii U games? Sequels are not ports and have no bearing here at all then because you specifically said ports and sequels are completely different games.

 

But yes you are correct regardless.

Last edited by JSG87 - on 14 January 2019

DonFerrari said:
Acevil said:

Ya, the wording was recorded history, which includes both of those. However I wonder how SNES did. 

Well I did great, but market at that time was a smaller and slower as far as I can tell. So it is even possible that for the first year or two even PS4 was ahead of SNES (can't prove and won't bother on being wrong).

zorg1000 said:

I'm not so sure about that, PS4 has Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Metal Gear Solid, Tekken, Gran Turismo, Resident Evil, God Eater, Dynasty Warriors, Hot Shots Golf, Street Fighter, Persona, Star Ocean, Tales of, Dragon Ball and soon to be Kingdom Hearts.

Basically all the big Japanese properties not by Nintendo/Level 5 and these were the franchises that pushed PS1/PS2/PSP to ~20 million sales in Japan.

Well you are probably right. If PS4 as a console outsold a handheld in Japan then it probably had more games to their taste.

PAOerfulone said:

The DS is out of reach in my view. It'll be a while before we see another system reach those numbers, maybe the Switch 2 can do it if Nintendo makes it fully backwards compatible and does exactly the same things they're doing with the Switch now, only double down on the marketing and support. But that won't be until waaay down the road, so I digress.

I do think it has a good chance to catch the 3DS. The 3DS is pretty much finished. It's not going to grow much more than where it is now. I'm thinking somewhere around 24.5 million will be its final tally. The Switch can reach that. As I stated in an earlier comment, it may be falling behind the 3DS in Japan right now, but the 3DS peaked very early. If fact, we just passed the 3DS' peak year, it's 2nd year (2012) whereas the Switch's peak years have yet to come. So, I think starting in 2020 is when it'll noticeably start to close the gap with the 3DS and eventually, once it gets close to the end of its cycle, it will overtake the 3DS.

And I highly doubt that we will get Switch 2 in 2022 (Switch's 5th year). Especially if the Switch continues to track well ahead of the 3DS' global sales like it has. The Switch was released in March 2017 and by that point, the 3DS had been on the market for about 6 years. So anything shorter than 6 years for the Switch would be cutting its legs off from underneath and, in my opinion, a big mistake on Nintendo's part.

As far as the PS5 and its potential effect on Switch sales are concerned, I side with Kerotan in that I don't see how one could effect the other. By the time the PS5 comes out, more than likely in late 2020, Nintendo will have made the adjustment, or start doing so by that point, of marketing and selling the Switch as a handheld device that can be played like a console. Right now, they are marketing the Switch primarily as a console you can take on the go like a portable and its price point of $300 has a lot to do with that, I feel. By that point, it will be at either $250, or even $200 if we get a revision of sorts that helps bring it down to that price. From that point onwards, they'll market the Switch as a handheld capable of HD quality games you can play on your TV. All the while, they'll be drawing in more and more of their handheld/portable audience who were waiting for the Switch to get to that handheld price range for them to make the purchase. Plus, there's the Switch Pro/X/i, whichever you prefer, that will fill the niche for those who want stronger, upgraded hardware.

Meanwhile, the PS5 will be launching at probably $400; At most, $500. And at those launch prices, the vast majority of people who will by the system are the early adapters and/or diehard, loyal PlayStation fans who are eager to get the newest system while the mainstream audience will wait for a price cut to a more affordable range and for its library to build and grow over time. Sony and Nintendo will be going for totally different audiences here and one company's performance and success will have little to no effect on the other's. 

If Switch by 2020 is still 250 Nintendo will be ripping off customers and making a pretty dolar on it. 200 USD is more likely.

And about the point of kerotan and Switch 2 making less success because it won't be a novelty like Switch... PS2 sold much more than PS1 being just an improvement over the previous without nothing really changing dramatically.

So if Switch 2 can improve on key areas it can sell more than Switch 1 (although we have seem that the systems Nintendo made as just evolution of the previous didn't do that well compared to the predecessor NES->SNES, GB->GBA, DS->3DS, Wii->WiiU).

Kerotan said:

So in your case when you are burdened to prove you provide numbers not relevant to the case at all. Ok Gotcha. 

And he won't own that he was wrong, and based his conclusion on wrong numbers.

And considering how long he have been on this site, to miss out all the threads and news made about X360 passing Wii at the end of the gen.

Better to brag that he at least got some numbers. Next time we discuss with he, maybe he will bring numbers from UK, and use some generic "USA sells like 3 times as much as UK, so this I multiply the sales on UK and get USA".

Of course he won't admit he's wrong but that's nothing new. It's the equivalent of check mate in chess yet he'll still go on. We have nothing left to prove. He gave irrelevant numbers and in the it turns out the Wii came second. Nothing else to say really. 

JSG87 said:
Kerotan said:

Ports and sequels to Wii U games. The point I'm making is that anyone who bought the Wii U will find the Switch extremely attractive. So why say only 3ds and Vita bases are buying the Switch and not Wii U. That's what is being discussed and I feel my point is valid. 

 

Sequels to Wii U games? Sequels are not ports and have no bearing here at all then because you specifically said ports and sequels are completely different games.

 

But yes you are correct regardless.

Yes I should have said ports and sequels instead of just ports. I was too focused on the other point regarding who are potential switch buyers. Anyway glad you agree with that side of it as do most I believe.