Some regions... Returning digital purchases is a consumer right protected under the law.

With that in mind... Just because a game is a digital purchase, doesn't mean that they can't buy a physical digital code, many PC games these days are just an empty DVD case when sold via physical sales channels.

A BD-XL is about $120 AUD.
So I would expect $50-$60 USD.

But that isn't the entire cost.

You have warranty costs (More parts, more failures, more costs and support), you have the power management, chipset and other pieces of logic, the engineering to shroud the system from vibrations and EM interference... I could go on.

It's not always "free". - Consequently, Microsoft and Sony have the advantage of shopping for a better deal and buying in bulk which helps.

I am all for a discless system, I won't own one personally though, but more choice is never a bad thing for the consumer.

I'm not sure that pricing logic makes sense. I'm sure research is needed on the matter but the casual gamer or family/kid orientated console purchase to me seems more likely to demand a disc compared to early adopters and the tech savy lot. I don't think Sony or MS will go out of their way to make the disc based system any more expensive then it needs to be, considering its also the most "accessible" version of the console. In short they won't put disc drives behind a truly premium system ("$100 worth of difference).

I'm also not sure they need a premium system so I think it'll be closer to $399 (2tflop system, discless), $449 (1tflop Disc based system). HDD and Discdrive upgrades being sold separately for a nice margin.

1. I don't think $399 or under is mandatory. It's been the price for the last decade, but the decade before $299 was the norm. Sony will likely launch first and have the freedom to set the market price. I see PS4 having longevity in 3rd party support so PS5 being a premium $449-499 for its first 12months isn't out of the question. I think it very could do well with that price tag.

2. Even still I'm confident that $399 can produce a pretty capable next gen system. Pro and X1X aren't priced as competively as if they were a mainline systems, neither sony or MS are giving figures but neither is passing that 15m mark before the arrival of next gen. Respectively PS5/X4 will pack more bang for buck than Pro or X1X because of economies of scale and better prices from AMD. Performance wise I think hardware based 4k s& Ray traycing solutions and new CPU's will be what afford next gen systems a huge boost over Pro/X1X. And we should consider those upgrade systems untapped to be honest because they're just receiving quick PS4/X1 ports, so I don't think Next Gen need to blow XB1X out the water with raw specs to be seen as a big leap.

I think they will also revolutionise how digital purchases are done in order to make them more retail and storage friendly i.e NFC cards printed with actual artwork and such.

There is hope for the human race yet lol. Was thinking the same thing

I think I won't buy any next-gen console at launch, but if I buy it, I'll definitely the one that has a disc drive. No way I'm going digital only at this point.

This is actually a really great Idea. Having a physical NFC activated card that is good for a one time digital use. So that way retail stores still are able to sell "physical" copies of games and do all their usual discount stuff. 

Only issue though is why would anyone buy the card if it only means they go back home and download the game anyways? The card will have to be cheaper somehow or something.

Again, not if the disc free SKU is marketed as the "budget" option. 

And in case you don't know, all games are installed onto the HDD currently. Disc or not. Having a 1TB base system without a drive will be the exact same thing as having a 500GB base system back in 2013.

As I said before, companies do these kinda margins tricks all the time. 

The recent cartridge post got me thinking, even though it looks to be about another SNY product instead. If PS did go back to carts, aside from the extra cost towards each individual game, that could solve some problems and open up doors next gen for them. What if they had a PS5 1080p hybrid SKU, and a PS5 4k home SKU? Forget about HDD's other than maybe for external storage. Have all future games on carts and be fully compatible. This also would give PS a reason to justify dropping 'native' BC for PS5 and just adding PS4 games to the PS Now service. It worked for PS4, just for different reasons. Otherwise an external optical drive would need to be offered, or physical games could be traded in for digital codes and downloaded to the external storage of your choosing.

Have a $199-$299 PS(5) 'Swap' that outputs 1080p/60 when docked. That would definitely mean the hybrid dock would need serious cooling capabilities, or it's own separate GPU (with PSVR built in possibly), which could be sold separate for $100 so the standard 'Swap' handheld was as cheap as possible. Maybe the handheld comes with a 'dummy' dock that allows it to play native 720p/60 upscaled on the TV? PSVR requires the separate additional GPU dock either way. Not too many bells and whistles, mostly gaming focused to keep the base price low.

Then have a $399-$499 PS5 home that outputs 4k/60. No disc drive and no HDD due to carts may be enough to get it to $399 retail. If PSVR is built into the console (assuming it's also built into the $100 'Swap' dock), then it'll probably end up $499.

New PSVR hardware at $299 including new PS Move controllers. Hopefully wireless.

This would allow PS a cheaper SKU (or two considering the boost dock), while having their full 4k powerhouse, and also remaining in the handheld space. They would have a full line up from the start, or earlier on with a pre-announced staggered launch, and could make the VR kit cheaper or have more value depending on their choice of hardware inclusion or continued separation.

*While this would cause some backlash with lack of native BC, it would solve any issues of a cheaper SKU and people wanting the more expensive model instead. If the cheaper model is designed as a hybrid, your no longer just getting a weaker cheaper console, your getting one that can do something the more expensive one can't, so not much reason to complain.