I'm not sure that pricing logic makes sense. I'm sure research is needed on the matter but the casual gamer or family/kid orientated console purchase to me seems more likely to demand a disc compared to early adopters and the tech savy lot. I don't think Sony or MS will go out of their way to make the disc based system any more expensive then it needs to be, considering its also the most "accessible" version of the console. In short they won't put disc drives behind a truly premium system ("$100 worth of difference).
I'm also not sure they need a premium system so I think it'll be closer to $399 (2tflop system, discless), $449 (1tflop Disc based system). HDD and Discdrive upgrades being sold separately for a nice margin.
1. I don't think $399 or under is mandatory. It's been the price for the last decade, but the decade before $299 was the norm. Sony will likely launch first and have the freedom to set the market price. I see PS4 having longevity in 3rd party support so PS5 being a premium $449-499 for its first 12months isn't out of the question. I think it very could do well with that price tag.
2. Even still I'm confident that $399 can produce a pretty capable next gen system. Pro and X1X aren't priced as competively as if they were a mainline systems, neither sony or MS are giving figures but neither is passing that 15m mark before the arrival of next gen. Respectively PS5/X4 will pack more bang for buck than Pro or X1X because of economies of scale and better prices from AMD. Performance wise I think hardware based 4k s& Ray traycing solutions and new CPU's will be what afford next gen systems a huge boost over Pro/X1X. And we should consider those upgrade systems untapped to be honest because they're just receiving quick PS4/X1 ports, so I don't think Next Gen need to blow XB1X out the water with raw specs to be seen as a big leap.
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