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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 46 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 12-18, 2018

Barkley on 21 November 2018
RolStoppable said:
Pleasantly surprised by Switch numbers after seeing how many replies this thread had gotten in such a short span of time.

So Switch is back to being up year over year and the comparison going forward is Xenoblade Chronicles 2 vs. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. I think 2018 has a slight advantage, as tiny as it might be.

I expect sales for week 47-52 to be at least 25% higher than last year with Pokemon and Smash going forward, more than a slight advantage imo. I guess next week will be very telling.

Megiddo said: 
Mbolibombo said: 

Just a heads up, last year week before Christmas Switch sold 270k.

Another 10% on top of that during Smash-frenzy certainly is not out of possibility.

Correct, that's Christmas week. If it was Smash + Christmas there'd be no way I'd take that bet.

However after Pokemon + Smash bundle achieved 200k, seeing 100k increase from Smash alone is quite a stretch.

Smash bundle was never going to move many units when it launched. It's a digital code you can't even use for a month and you don't even get a discount. 300k won't be entirely due to smash, we're moving deeper into the holiday season where sales naturally increase regardless of releases. Last year for Week 49 (The week smash is launching) the Switch sold 165k with NO releases. Smash Release and the continued boost from Pokemon can push the Switch to be up 135k YoY for that one week.

Last edited by Barkley - on 21 November 2018

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Megiddo on 21 November 2018
Barkley said:
RolStoppable said:
Pleasantly surprised by Switch numbers after seeing how many replies this thread had gotten in such a short span of time.

So Switch is back to being up year over year and the comparison going forward is Xenoblade Chronicles 2 vs. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. I think 2018 has a slight advantage, as tiny as it might be.

I expect sales for week 47-52 to be at least 25% higher than last year with Pokemon and Smash going forward, more than a slight advantage imo. I guess next week will be very telling.

Yep, Last year it sold 142k in week 47. That will not be easy to match in my opinion.



Mbolibombo on 21 November 2018
Megiddo said:
Mbolibombo said:

Just a heads up, last year week before Christmas Switch sold 270k.

Another 10% on top of that during Smash-frenzy certainly is not out of possibility.

Correct, that's Christmas week. If it was Smash + Christmas there'd be no way I'd take that bet.

However after Pokemon + Smash bundle achieved 200k, seeing 100k increase from Smash alone is quite a stretch.

I see where you are coming from, but December is a big boost in itself, "smash week" had 165k last year with no software riding off of Odyssey and XC2 in to the holidays.

Pokemon and the highly anticipated Smash which will undoubtely sell more than 1M launch week is on another level. No less than 250k and I wouldnt rule out 300k either.

no less, it'll be interesting to see what's going down =)



Megiddo on 21 November 2018
Barkley said:
RolStoppable said:
Pleasantly surprised by Switch numbers after seeing how many replies this thread had gotten in such a short span of time.

So Switch is back to being up year over year and the comparison going forward is Xenoblade Chronicles 2 vs. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. I think 2018 has a slight advantage, as tiny as it might be.

I expect sales for week 47-52 to be at least 25% higher than last year with Pokemon and Smash going forward, more than a slight advantage imo. I guess next week will be very telling.

Megiddo said: 

Correct, that's Christmas week. If it was Smash + Christmas there'd be no way I'd take that bet.

However after Pokemon + Smash bundle achieved 200k, seeing 100k increase from Smash alone is quite a stretch.

Smash bundle was never going to move many units when it launched.

Going to stop you right there. The Smash bundle has been the top ranked Switch console SKU on Amazon.co.jp for almost 2 months now. This week's numbers is the culimination of all those Smash bundle pre-orders.



Megiddo on 21 November 2018
RolStoppable said:
Megiddo said:

Going to stop you right there. The Smash bundle has been the top ranked Switch console SKU on Amazon.co.jp for almost 2 months now.

Did I miss something? Since when does the Japanese branch of Amazon have a reputation of being a good indicator for Japanese hardware sales?

Relative to other hardware SKUs when looked at over a long duration of time (such as 2 months)? Since forever.



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kopstudent89 on 21 November 2018

Wow massively impressive. I wasn't expecting that much above 100k, this is crazy and we still have Smash to go!



OTBWY on 21 November 2018
Barkley said:
Megiddo said:

I'm not sure how that could be "easy". If anything would have been "easy" to reach those numbers it'd be this week's sales where the two big holiday bundles launched.

This seems like blind optimism like how Labo was treated.

Smash Bros week sales will be above 300k.

Now you've brought Labo up, I'll be glad when the holidays are over and we can say Labo failed without people going "But but... most of it's sales will come from the holidays!"

Didn't it sell well over a million? Maybe 1,5m? Combined with the higher price range it doesn't seem that much of a fail. Just another million seller for the Switch. If it failed to move hardware, then ok, but sf is not a bomba.



tbone51 on 21 November 2018
Megiddo said:
RolStoppable said:

Did I miss something? Since when does the Japanese branch of Amazon have a reputation of being a good indicator for Japanese hardware sales?

Relative to other hardware SKUs when looked at over a long duration of time (such as 2 months)? Since forever.

Your gonna be very surprised this holiday, switch going to destroy your expectations lol



Megiddo on 21 November 2018
OTBWY said:
Barkley said:

Smash Bros week sales will be above 300k.

Now you've brought Labo up, I'll be glad when the holidays are over and we can say Labo failed without people going "But but... most of it's sales will come from the holidays!"

Didn't it sell well over a million? Maybe 1,5m? Combined with the higher price range it doesn't seem that much of a fail. Just another million seller for the Switch. If it failed to move hardware, then ok, but sf is not a bomba.

It shipped well over a million. It hasn't come close to selling through that initial shipment though.

tbone51 said:
Megiddo said:

Relative to other hardware SKUs when looked at over a long duration of time (such as 2 months)? Since forever.

Your gonna be very surprised this holiday, switch going to destroy your expectations lol

I look forward to it!



Megiddo on 21 November 2018

Double post, please remove.