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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 46 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - November 12-18, 2018

nero said:
Megiddo said:

Expecting basically no drop in this week's MC numbers? Wow, that is quite bold.

The momentum is there, Smash is around the corner. If it keeps the stock going I think they will mantain it. If not, as rumour has it that it's having shortages ala 2017, it might drop 

7 SKUs consistently above any other console and all in the top 50 on Amazon Japan basically all through out the past  weeks as well. I second you in expecting another Switch landslide this week.



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NoCtiS_NoX said:
Miyamotoo said:

But that doesnt go against what I said, if Switch install base for Splatoon2 launch was higher, Splatoon2 would also had even higher sales than it did, same like Pokemon. There is no need for explanation, we talking about very clear logic, higher install base means higher number of potential buyers for any game, that means higher sales in any case if we talk about same game and same platform, if Switch had lower install base than it did, lower sales would be for Pokemon, if it did had higher install base, higher sales would be for Pokemon, its simply as that.

I dont see how I prove your point, that list just shows that Pokemon Lets Go had good launch compared to its install base and very similar compared to other Pokemon games.

It seems , I failed to explain it better.

What you fail to realize with comparison with Splatoon 2. It manage to sell 600k with 1m installbase. Yes you are correct that if the installbase is higher Splatoon 2 could have sold more than 600k so if we compare it directly with pokemon with 600k with 5m install base then Let’s go sales is not really that great because using your arguments Let’s go should have sold more. It’s on a higher installbase right? 

As for your examples yes, you didn’t notice you prove my point with it. Take a 2nd look with your examples. X&Y outsold S&M with less install base so using your logic. A higher installbase means higher sales but it didn’t happen with sun and moon.

hence proving my point that install base doesn’t really matter with Pokemon. 

 

This sucks. Posting in mobile is really a mess. :(

Well its obvious Splatoon2 that had much better debut than PLG, but that isnt point, point is that PLG would be sell better if Switch had higher install base (same goes for Splatoon2 or any other game really), and that's definitely point should be taken in consideration when we comparing it to sales of other Pokemon games, because this Pokemon game was launched on lowest install base, if Switch had install base few millions more than it did, PLG would definitely sell more in any case than it did.

No, thats not my logic, Its not same thing, I was talking about same game and same platform, both X&Y and S&M would again sell more than than they did if 3DS install base in that period was higher when those games were launched, and they would sell less if install base of 3DS was smaller.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 26 November 2018

Miyamotoo said:

Well its obvious Splatoon2 that had much better debut than PLG, but that isnt point, point is that PLG would be sell better if Switch had higher install base (same goes for Splatoon2 or any other game really), and that's definitely point should be taken in consideration when we comparing it to sales of other Pokemon games, because this Pokemon game was launched on lowest install base, if Switch had install base few millions more than it did, PLG would definitely sell more in any case than it did.

No, thats not my logic, Its not same thing, I was talking about same game and same platform, both X&Y and S&M would again sell more than than they did if 3DS install base in that period was higher when those games were launched, and they would sell less if install base of 3DS was smaller.

How is it obvious? Using your arguments. Higher install base equals higher sales so if we use Splatoon as an example then Let’s go sales should be higher correct? then why it didn’t sold more than Splatoon FW? 

and as for you examples  why didn’t sun and moon out sold X and Y with higher install base then can you please explain that to me?

why a 5 million install base limit a fw sales  of Pokemon when it didn’t limit Splatoon 2  in selling 600k with 1M install base?



NoCtiS_NoX said:
Miyamotoo said:

Well its obvious Splatoon2 that had much better debut than PLG, but that isnt point, point is that PLG would be sell better if Switch had higher install base (same goes for Splatoon2 or any other game really), and that's definitely point should be taken in consideration when we comparing it to sales of other Pokemon games, because this Pokemon game was launched on lowest install base, if Switch had install base few millions more than it did, PLG would definitely sell more in any case than it did.

No, thats not my logic, Its not same thing, I was talking about same game and same platform, both X&Y and S&M would again sell more than than they did if 3DS install base in that period was higher when those games were launched, and they would sell less if install base of 3DS was smaller.

How is it obvious? Using your arguments. Higher install base equals higher sales so if we use Splatoon as an example then Let’s go sales should be higher correct? then why it didn’t sold more than Splatoon FW? 

and as for you examples  why didn’t sun and moon out sold X and Y with higher install base then can you please explain that to me?

why a 5 million install base limit a fw sales  of Pokemon when it didn’t limit Splatoon 2  in selling 600k with 1M install base?

Great assessment. You really debunked his post with solid facts. 



NoCtiS_NoX said:
Miyamotoo said:

Well its obvious Splatoon2 that had much better debut than PLG, but that isnt point, point is that PLG would be sell better if Switch had higher install base (same goes for Splatoon2 or any other game really), and that's definitely point should be taken in consideration when we comparing it to sales of other Pokemon games, because this Pokemon game was launched on lowest install base, if Switch had install base few millions more than it did, PLG would definitely sell more in any case than it did.

No, thats not my logic, Its not same thing, I was talking about same game and same platform, both X&Y and S&M would again sell more than than they did if 3DS install base in that period was higher when those games were launched, and they would sell less if install base of 3DS was smaller.

How is it obvious? Using your arguments. Higher install base equals higher sales so if we use Splatoon as an example then Let’s go sales should be higher correct? then why it didn’t sold more than Splatoon FW? 

and as for you examples  why didn’t sun and moon out sold X and Y with higher install base then can you please explain that to me?

why a 5 million install base limit a fw sales  of Pokemon when it didn’t limit Splatoon 2  in selling 600k with 1M install base?

Simple, if we talk about same platform and same game, higher base means higher potential number of buyers for that game, and offcourse that with higher install base for same game on same platform higher sales would be for that game, its opposite with lower install base. Its not how that works, every game has different apealing and sales, point that Splatoon 2 had similar sales like PLG with much lower install base that doesnt go against my point, like I wrote, with higher install base both games would have higher launch numbers. I gave you simple question, PLG was launched on install base of around 5.5m, do you think that sales numbers for PLG would be same if install base was 10m or maybe 2m? Lets said that install base was just 1m higher than it was, do you think that not one single owner from that extra 1m wouldn't buy PIG game at launch? 

Because they didnt have same appealing, they are not same games, they were launched in different point of console life, different order...but again, that doesnt go against my point, that both those games would sell more if they install base was higher and less if install base is lower. Fact that Splatoon 2 was more popular than PLG on launch doesnt go against my point.

Thats a point and I already said several times to you, install base was limit for Splatoon 2 also, install base affecting on every game release not just on PLG or Splatoon2, and when you comparing PLG sales with other Pokemon games, and fact is that Switch has lowest install base on which some Pokemon game was launched and that should be one of points when we comparing sales with other Pokemon games. Also, PLG had attach rate of 12% (whithout digital sales) on install base of around 5.5m, and thats around 660k, same attach rate with install base of around 10m maybe could be around 1.2m.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 28 November 2018

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Miyamotoo said:

Simple, if we talk about same platform and same game, higher base means higher potential number of buyers for that game, and offcourse that with higher install base for same game on same platform higher sales would be for that game, its opposite with lower install base. Its not how that works, every game has different apealing and sales, point that Splatoon 2 had similar sales like PLG with much lower install base that doesnt go against my point, like I wrote, with higher install base both games would have higher launch numbers. I gave you simple question, PLG was launched on install base of around 5.5m, do you think that sales numbers for PLG would be same if install base was 10m or maybe 2m? Lets said that install base was just 1m higher than it was, do you think that not one single owner from that extra 1m wouldn't buy PIG game at launch? 

Because they didnt have same appealing, they are not same games, they were launched in different point of console life, different order...but again, that doesnt go against my point, that both those games would sell more if they install base was higher and less if install base is lower. Fact that Splatoon 2 was more popular than PLG on launch doesnt go against my point.

Thats a point and I already said several times to you, install base was limit for Splatoon 2 also, install base affecting on every game release not just on PLG or Splatoon2, and when you comparing PLG sales with other Pokemon games, and fact is that Switch has lowest install base on which some Pokemon game was launched and that should be one of points when we comparing sales with other Pokemon games. Also, PLG had attach rate of 12% (whithout digital sales) on install base of around 5.5m, and thats around 660k, same attach rate with install base of around 10m maybe could be around 1.2m.

It's simple as this. It's a pokemon game. Pokemon is popular with Kids and core fans a like. If this is gen 8. Even if the install base is 5.6 M it will  sell like X and Y and Sun and moon or even more because NSW is doing great.

Let's use FFXIII as an example it sold 1.5M on an install base of 4.7M.  Then FFXV sold 690K on an install base of 3.7M.  What's the difference of the 2?  Do you think another 1M will help FFXV's sales  to match FFXIII's sale? The simple answer is no. I will not explain it, I think you are old enough to understand.  

Now let's use your example. Sun and moon sold 1.9 on an install base of 20M compare it to X and Y that sold 2.1 on an install base of 13M.  Can you tell me straight on my face install base matters on a game like Pokemon? You are already ignoring this because it debunks  all of your arguments against me.  

As for Splatoon. Don't put words in my mouth. I already said with higher install base it will sell more, The key difference is when Splatoon was release it was limited by shortages of NSW but it manage to sell 600K so again with an install base of 5.6M Let's go sales is somewhat disappointing when install base is higher and not plagued with shortages. 

Anyway, we will see the charts soon. Hopefully it will have great legs not just in Japan but worldwide because the more I saw game play vids the more I am getting excited to play it. 

Last edited by NoCtiS_NoX - on 28 November 2018

NoCtiS_NoX said:
Miyamotoo said:

Simple, if we talk about same platform and same game, higher base means higher potential number of buyers for that game, and offcourse that with higher install base for same game on same platform higher sales would be for that game, its opposite with lower install base. Its not how that works, every game has different apealing and sales, point that Splatoon 2 had similar sales like PLG with much lower install base that doesnt go against my point, like I wrote, with higher install base both games would have higher launch numbers. I gave you simple question, PLG was launched on install base of around 5.5m, do you think that sales numbers for PLG would be same if install base was 10m or maybe 2m? Lets said that install base was just 1m higher than it was, do you think that not one single owner from that extra 1m wouldn't buy PIG game at launch? 

Because they didnt have same appealing, they are not same games, they were launched in different point of console life, different order...but again, that doesnt go against my point, that both those games would sell more if they install base was higher and less if install base is lower. Fact that Splatoon 2 was more popular than PLG on launch doesnt go against my point.

Thats a point and I already said several times to you, install base was limit for Splatoon 2 also, install base affecting on every game release not just on PLG or Splatoon2, and when you comparing PLG sales with other Pokemon games, and fact is that Switch has lowest install base on which some Pokemon game was launched and that should be one of points when we comparing sales with other Pokemon games. Also, PLG had attach rate of 12% (whithout digital sales) on install base of around 5.5m, and thats around 660k, same attach rate with install base of around 10m maybe could be around 1.2m.

It's simple as this. It's a pokemon game. Pokemon is popular with Kids and core fans a like. If this is gen 8. Even if the install base is 5.6 M it will  sell like X and Y and Sun and moon or even more because NSW is doing great.

Let's use FFXIII as an example it sold 1.5M on an install base of 4.7M.  Then FFXV sold 690K on an install base of 3.7M.  What's the difference of the 2?  Do you think another 1M will help FFXV's sales  to match FFXIII's sale? The simple answer is no. I will not explain it, I think you are old enough to understand.  

Now let's use your example. Sun and moon sold 1.9 on an install base of 20M compare it to X and Y that sold 2.1 on an install base of 13M.  Can you tell me straight on my face install base matters on a game like Pokemon? You are already ignoring this because it debunks  all of your arguments against me.  

As for Splatoon. Don't put words in my mouth. I already said with higher install base it will sell more, The key difference is when Splatoon was release it was limited by shortages of NSW but it manage to sell 600K so again with an install base of 5.6M Let's go sales is somewhat disappointing when install base is higher and not plagued with shortages. 

Anyway, we will see the charts soon. Hopefully it will have great legs not just in Japan but worldwide because the more I saw game play vids the more I am getting excited to play it. 

That again go against my point that with higher install base same game would sell more than it did (or less with lower install base).

You again comparing two different games, I talking about same game.

I was very clear about that, they didnt have same appealing, they are not same games, they were launched in different point of console life, different order...but again, that doesnt go against my point, that both those games would sell more if they install base was higher and less if install base is lower. You said Sun and Moon sold 1.9 on an install base of 20M, my point is that Sun and Moon would sell more than it did if install base was 30m , or less than it did if install was 10m. Same goes for  X and Y, it sold 2.1 on an install base of 13M, but it would sell more than it did if install base was for instance 20m and less than it did if install base was 5m.

How exactly I put words in your mouth? Again, I dont arguing that Splatoon 2 had much better launch than PLG, my point is that both Splatoon2 and PLG would have sold better than they did with higher install base.

Well we see sales update for PLG in 15 min, right? :)



Acevil said:
Megiddo said:
NS: 120k, 145k, 240k, 200k, 295k, 250k = 1.25m would end just above 3.5 mil for the calendar year.

PS4: 20k, 25k, 30k, 25k, 40k, 30k = 170k would end up just above 1.5 mil for the calendar year.

I'm actually more pessimistic on next weeks numbers, I can see going down to 100k, but the following weeks I am more positive than you. I can personally see it doing close to 3.6 million.

Also your numbers I think earlier correct I think, for some reason I was treating it as 7 weeks remaining. 200,000 is close to what it needs every week to get to 3.5.

Called it sort of! 108k. Now lets see how it goes up. 

Last edited by Acevil - on 28 November 2018