Makes me think a PSX in December would be a good place to announce it. As at least black friday is over so the damage is mitigated. 3rd December 2019 is exactly 25 years after the PS1 launched. A big event to celebrate and announce the next PlayStation seems like a good way to celebrate 25 years.

But yeah, maybe a February event like they did with the PS4 makes more sense.

If the console is revealed in H2 2019 it could well launch around March 2020. PS4's reveal to release window was a welcome improvement and I doubt they'd want to stretch things out further, but a November fallback date would make sense in case supply issues hold things up.

You honestly dont do so.
Switch proved it.

First year, you always have limited stock..... when you launch in the holidays your basically wasteing your first holiday push effect.
It makes more sense to launch early, and make proper use of your first holiday.

I doubt they’ll release it before the big games like GoT, TLOU2 or Death Stranding are out on PS4.

Why would that be the dumb thing? They're making more profit than they ever have before, the PS4 is still selling great and the technology available to them for a 2020 launch over a 2019 launch may make a big difference. They are going to be stuck with whatever they put out for at least a few years after all. Lack of patience would be the dumb thing.

The twilight years of a console are when you rake in the cash.

If they launch late 2020, the next xbox will be ready too. There won't be a year's headstart or anything, it will most likely be an aligned launch like this gen.

Sony can't go a year without any shows or any announcements of any sort. If TLOU 2 is a holiday 2019 game, I can see the next ps5 launching early 2020 giving them a 6 months head start on the next xbox.

I see zero chance that MS releases a $500 Xbox, unless they have more than one SKU.  In that case, there might be something at $500, if there's another one cheaper. They just saw how that $500 price tag affected sales at the beginning of this generation. inflation, at least in the dollar, has been relatively low. So that $500 is still $500. If they make that same mistake again, that would be one of the stupidest moves in the history of business.

Similarly, I see zero chance that they really say less powerful console than Sony, unless they truly are caught off guard. That's another mistake they just made, and certainly will have learned from. they have extremely deep pockets, and have  shown lately that they are willing to spend and do intend to be a player in the gaming space. If anything, I expect them to be willing to take a hefty loss on console sales if necessary, in order to stay ahead of Sony in the next generation. Microsoft has a lot more ability to sustain losses for a long time if necessary, if they have a long-term goal in mind.  It looks to me that they are pulling out all the stops to compete.

There is always a possibility that these are co-releases.  Although GoT and TLOU2 had such good graphics that I would not be surprised if they were planning on making these PS5 games all along.

Well the PS2 was the best selling console of all time.  And because of this massive success, Sony underestimated the competition when they released the PS3.  (They underestimated by Microsoft and Nintendo.)  A smart company learns from its mistakes.  If they are wise they will get the PS5 out as soon as possible to compete with the Switch.  Of course, if they are dumb, then they will not learn from past mistakes and underestimate the competition again.

PS4 isn't in direct competition with Switch and neither will the PS5 be. They're too different and have minimal impact on each other. If you want an example of this PS4's peak year by far was the year Switch launched, clearly Switch didn't have a negative affect on it's sales despite having a strong start selling 13.5m that year.

Xbox/PS are in direct competition because the systems are very similar and the vast majority of software sold is multi-platform available on both and almost identical versions on both.

The direct competition between PS4/Switch is minimal because they appeal to different people as they have very different software libraries.

I've been saying 2020 at the earliest for years even when most were convinced of 2018 and 2019. Hopefully I'm right.