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Forums - Nintendo - Nintendo Q2 Report - Switch hardware total 22.86 millions - 50% of Online Users paid for the year

Miyamotoo on 31 October 2018
Wyrdness said:
I'd like to highlight how Splatoon is a monster franchise two games in and could cross 10m LT, that's COD level numbers for a shooter on a single platform, I wonder if NS can pull off a top 10 software of 10m sellers I think only the Wii and DS have pulled that off.

Arms against the odds has sold 2.1m more than the majority of fighting games out and everyone's villain 1-2 Switch is heading towards the 3m mark.

Its very possible, for now we have Zelda BotW, MK8D and Odyssey, and Splatoon2 is also safe bet, after that Smash Bros Ultimate, Animal Crossing, core Pokemon game, and probably even Pokemon Lets Go game. Thats already 8 games, add to that some 2D Mario (Mario Maker for instance or maybe even NSMBU), onother 3D Mario or onother 3D Zelda, onother Pokemon...and we shoud have 10 Switch games that have sale above 10m.



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Azzanation on 31 October 2018
Jranation said:
Azzanation said:

This is where the big bucks are earned. 11m gamers paid $20 for that year. 11m x 20 = $220m. Impressive results.

So Nintendo made $220m for locking MP behind a paywall. Its crazy logic but it works.

Where did you get that? From my understanding, More than Half of the Online Subscribers have paid the 1 year option. It did not say half of the Switch population. 

You might be right, however i am curious to know how they determine there online User base. Am i considered an online user since i played afew hours on Mario Kart 8 and Splatoon 2 online? And havnt played online for months?

I didnt know you can subscribe without paying, i havnt actually checked that yet. 

Either way.. even if its 1m users paying $20, its free cash earnt for basically limiting services rather than adding services.

Last edited by Azzanation - on 31 October 2018

x-blades12 on 31 October 2018
Wyrdness said:
I'd like to highlight how Splatoon is a monster franchise two games in and could cross 10m LT, that's COD level numbers for a shooter on a single platform, I wonder if NS can pull off a top 10 software of 10m sellers I think only the Wii and DS have pulled that off.

Arms against the odds has sold 2.1m more than the majority of fighting games out and everyone's villain 1-2 Switch is heading towards the 3m mark.

This! Splatoon 2 is easily gonna go on selling 10m units which is absolutely insane for any franchise that's only in its second iteration! HOLY EXPLOSIONS!



x-blades12 on 31 October 2018
Miyamotoo said:
x-blades12 said:
Like many people have already said here. Q2 and Q3 are up year and year. Last year's quarterly for the holiday season was at 7.24 million, if we follow the trend, q1+q2 sold 4.89m. Our current cumulative is sitting at 5.07m. That would be up roughly ~3.7% (I could be doing this all wrong) but if we just base it solely on trend then 7.24*1.037~7.51m. This is not factoring into account both Pokemon and smash. Top that off with all the games released in the past year plus available bundle,s makes switch a far more appealing system than it was 1 year ago.
Even if we kept the estimates low, we could assume the switch would sell 8m this quarter. I'd predict anything between 8-10m is more than feasible.
So with that said. if we say its sitting at 8m that would have it sitting at 13m. 7 m short. I can't find the q4 2018 report from January to March, but iirc it was at ~4m? so at 4m we would see sales sitting at 17m. I'd prop that up to about 5m or 18m.
Prediction:
min: 18m
max: 20m

This year in January-March period Switch sold 2.9m, saying that this FY Q4 same period will probably be quite stronger (3.5m+), it will have effect of Pokemon Lets Go, Smash Ultimate, NSMBU DX..

 

Haha thanks for this, but if its 2.9m that makes it a heck of a lot tougher. 3.5 is a good guess but it sets to about 16.5m. This makes 20m a hard sale. I still feel like it could happen though



Jranation on 31 October 2018
Azzanation said:
Jranation said:

Where did you get that? From my understanding, More than Half of the Online Subscribers have paid the 1 year option. It did not say half of the Switch population. 

You might be right, however i am curious to know how they determine there online User base. Am i considered an online user since i played afew hours on Mario Kart 8 and Splatoon 2 online? And havnt played online for months?

I didnt know you can subscribe without paying, i havnt actually checked that yet. 

Either way.. even if its 1m users paying $20, its free cash earnt for basically limiting services rather than adding services.

I think they count it by accounts who paid money to it. Its like how they track digital sales. So anyone who played online before but did not purchase the online service will not be in that data. 

 

But yeah. Its nice $$$$ for Nintendo. Just like with the other 2 companies.



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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Miyamotoo on 31 October 2018
x-blades12 said:
Miyamotoo said:

This year in January-March period Switch sold 2.9m, saying that this FY Q4 same period will probably be quite stronger (3.5m+), it will have effect of Pokemon Lets Go, Smash Ultimate, NSMBU DX..

 

Haha thanks for this, but if its 2.9m that makes it a heck of a lot tougher. 3.5 is a good guess but it sets to about 16.5m. This makes 20m a hard sale. I still feel like it could happen though

Switch could sell around 10m in next quarter and around 3.5-4m in quarter after, that would roughly put Switch at around 18.5-19m. For 20m they need 11m in holiday season quarter and 4m in quarter after that, it hard but it's achievable. I think even if they dont hit 20m, they will hit at least around 18m (so Holiday season around 9-10m and quarter after that 3-4m).



melbye on 31 October 2018

It's really exciting to see if Nintendo can reach their 20 million units sold this fiscal year, wonder what games other than Mario they have planned for Jan-March



Alby_da_Wolf on 31 October 2018

Well, maybe current numbers will give a yearly total slightly below Ninty's best expectations, but also surely above average expectations by most people and analysts, including many Ninty fans. And it could have been expected actually, as NS is one of the only two platforms that consistently managed to have high HW sales even in the slowest periods this gen.



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TheBraveGallade on 31 October 2018
x-blades12 said:
Miyamotoo said:

This year in January-March period Switch sold 2.9m, saying that this FY Q4 same period will probably be quite stronger (3.5m+), it will have effect of Pokemon Lets Go, Smash Ultimate, NSMBU DX..

 

Haha thanks for this, but if its 2.9m that makes it a heck of a lot tougher. 3.5 is a good guess but it sets to about 16.5m. This makes 20m a hard sale. I still feel like it could happen though

Not to mention fire emblem. A lot of FE fans held off on buying a switch so far because they told us a switch FE was on its way for switch 2018 two years ago.



x-blades12 on 31 October 2018
TheBraveGallade said:
x-blades12 said:

Haha thanks for this, but if its 2.9m that makes it a heck of a lot tougher. 3.5 is a good guess but it sets to about 16.5m. This makes 20m a hard sale. I still feel like it could happen though

Not to mention fire emblem. A lot of FE fans held off on buying a switch so far because they told us a switch FE was on its way for switch 2018 two years ago.

Originally I started commenting on your comment with  this -->I doubt this. Fire emblem awakening (fire emblem's biggest game to date) went on to sell (according to vgc 2.1m units) even if we factor in the whole shortage deficit that shifted many of its units to digital we would still be looking at roughly ~3m units. So lets do a quick analysis! (but after my analysis NVM)

FE awakening released in April 19th, 2012 and saw an increase in HW by 39%. 

It released in the US February 4th and saw an increase in HW by about 31%. While the rest of the world April 20th and saw a HW increase by 24%. With those numbers alone, the impact of FE is quite prevalent. But alas this isn't 2012-2013 no more. FE has had multiple games since then. So it's time to look at fates.

FE fates went on to sell just a lil under coming up at 1.98m. But its opening weeks were by and by larger. In Japan FE fates released in 2015 and saw a HW increase by 33%.

Due to some weird ass vgchartz sales data. For some reason randomly the 3ds sales went up 155% the week prior to FE so ignoring that week. FE fates in 2016 in US saw HW sales nearly double! While lastly worldwide release in may saw a drop by 6%. 

Focusing solely on FE in Japan and US and factoring into account the upward trend of RPG games (octopath traveller) as well as this being FE's first mainline home console game since 2007, it is safe to say that FE will have a big impact on switch sales. I feel like the FE warriors game despite its piss poor sales reminded the general public of the relevancy of FE. So now would be a perfect time to release it. Other titles withstanding during its release, FE should produce a MASSIVE ASS BUMP! SO EXCITED!