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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Is this community able to apologize ?

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Amnesia said:

No I did not think you were nuts, the idea was pertinent, but I was still sure that you were wrong, and I still believe it today. Zelda will never catch up the gap with only 6-7000 units more per week even during 6 years

I was including Switch + Wii U together for my BotW prediction.  When I checked the reported numbers last (Mar. 31, 2018) Zelda was only about 0.5m behind Mario.  So if it sells 6000 per week for 6 years that is 6000*52*6 = 1.872m.  That is more than enough to catch Mario and it isn't counting increased sales from holidays either.

Mario will be more advantaged for Christmas against Zelda, exactely for the same reason which makes Switch to be advantaged against PS4 :

Mario has more success to younger players, Zelda touches more adults. If I buy a Switch, I will buy Zelda for sure as my first game, but not Mario. I know a few other like me around 35 years old who wants this Zelda so much but not Mario. Most of the adults don't care about the period of the year to buy a video game. But younger with no money during the year have to wait Christmas.



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I know this is a little bit off topic, but it seems like a good enough place to say it...

Mario Odyssey is a very, very good game. I loved it. But, breath of the wild is an incredible, absolutely excellent game. It's a once in a generation kind of thing. I certainly hope that it out sells Mario Odyssey lifetime. That will encourage Nintendo, and possibly other people, to go for it, even with a franchise that might not be in there top-tier.



RolStoppable said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Ask and you will receive.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=235151&page=1

I remember that I read that thread, but I didn't comment in it. I didn't disagree with the prediction because it's a possible and realistic outcome, but your reasoning with a multiplier of 2.5 was and is bad, because it's so arbitrary and not backed up by anything other than it seeming to be right to you.

The 2.5 comes from the idea that BotW will sell like original Zelda, but it needs to be scaled up for the modern market.  PS2:NES has approximately a 2.5:1 ratio.  Obviously that is a rough estimate, but I felt it was a conservative one since the population has grown since generation 6.

 

I checked my own special thread to see how the shipment numbers have developed for both games in 2018.

Breath of the Wild has shipped 1.78m and 0.84m in the first two quarters of calendar year 2018.
Super Mario Odyssey has shipped 1.34m and 0.76m.

The bigger discrepancy of Q1 can be easily explained by slight overshipping of Super Mario Odyssey during its launch quarter, so Q2 should be considered more representative and the upcoming financial report on October 30th should confirm that. Things will probably develop in line with your prediction that it won't happen fast, but that it will happen. I think you'll be off on 16m at most for Super Mario Odyssey though, but that was more of a secondary part in your prediction, and predictions rarely play out 100% correct.

That is possible.  Putting a floor on BotW was easy.  Putting a ceiling on Odyssey was hard, mostly because I don't really know how high Switch will sell.  I still hold it will be the best selling console of all time, but by how much?  Will it just barely pass PS2 or will it go up to crazy 250m+ total?  If the Switch goes up to insane numbers then it will take Odyssey up there with it. 



Amnesia said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I was including Switch + Wii U together for my BotW prediction.  When I checked the reported numbers last (Mar. 31, 2018) Zelda was only about 0.5m behind Mario.  So if it sells 6000 per week for 6 years that is 6000*52*6 = 1.872m.  That is more than enough to catch Mario and it isn't counting increased sales from holidays either.

Mario will be more advantaged for Christmas against Zelda, exactely for the same reason which makes Switch to be advantaged against PS4 :

Mario has more success to younger players, Zelda touches more adults. If I buy a Switch, I will buy Zelda for sure as my first game, but not Mario. I know a few other like me around 35 years old who wants this Zelda so much but not Mario. Most of the adults don't care about the period of the year to buy a video game. But younger with no money during the year have to wait Christmas.

Your analysis sounds reasonable.  I don't agree with it, but it sounds reasonable.  I guess we'll just have to wait and see.



John2290 said:
jason1637 said:
I don't believe in apologies. You can admit you were wrong about something but apologising is too much.

I'm sorry you feel this way. 

Feel what way?



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John2290 said:
jason1637 said:
I don't believe in apologies. You can admit you were wrong about something but apologising is too much.

I'm sorry you feel this way. 

jason1637 said:
John2290 said:

I'm sorry you feel this way. 

Feel what way?

Sorry to butt in. Be careful questioning someone's feelings, they may very well expect you to apologize.



Maybe you just really have amnesia, after all.



This seems like a little bit of over dramatic response to what are just sales predictions.

I mean if this deserves apologising over, I wonder what must Splatoon deserve. 

Last edited by Green098 - on 17 October 2018

I'm kinda puzzled as to why people under Nintendo banner would fight to begin as to which of their most successful franchise will do better when in the end, combination is true strengh. I mean both games are/will respectively crush their previous record holders. I'd certainly be about that for now.



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