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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

zorg1000 on 19 August 2018
SammyGiireal said:

I said 10-12 million on another thread, and no one seemed to agree. 20 mil are high expectations and 8 are too low. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

10-12 million is far too low, it did 15 million last year so this year should be higher than that, it might not hit the 20m goal but its not missing it by 8-10 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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pokoko on 19 August 2018

I don't really understand this thread. A lot of people have predicted that the Switch won't reach 20 million. Why is that "bold"?



Megiddo on 19 August 2018
zorg1000 said:
SammyGiireal said:

I said 10-12 million on another thread, and no one seemed to agree. 20 mil are high expectations and 8 are too low. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

10-12 million is far too low, it did 15 million last year so this year should be higher than that, it might not hit the 20m goal but its not missing it by 8-10 million.

Isn't it down YoY so far despite last year having massive supply issues/shortages?



HylianSwordsman on 19 August 2018

To people saying he's just extrapolating from the 1st quarter, that's still a dumb statement to make. If he wants to say 1st quarter was bad, just say it, don't say something that makes it sound like you think the historically worst quarter will be what the system sells all fiscal year.



zorg1000 on 19 August 2018
Megiddo said:
zorg1000 said:

10-12 million is far too low, it did 15 million last year so this year should be higher than that, it might not hit the 20m goal but its not missing it by 8-10 million.

Isn't it down YoY so far despite last year having massive supply issues/shortages?

By a whopping 80k



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 on 19 August 2018
pokoko said:
I don't really understand this thread. A lot of people have predicted that the Switch won't reach 20 million. Why is that "bold"?

There is a difference between saying it will miss its shipment goals and saying it will miss it by 12 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Jumpin on 20 August 2018
contestgamer said:
Pachter has been right with MOST o his predictions for the past 10 years I've followed him. Sure, he's not right 100% of the time, but he's usually accurate, so this seems likely.

He's famous for always being wrong.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin on 20 August 2018
Megiddo said:
zorg1000 said:

10-12 million is far too low, it did 15 million last year so this year should be higher than that, it might not hit the 20m goal but its not missing it by 8-10 million.

Isn't it down YoY so far despite last year having massive supply issues/shortages?

It's down in shipments by 80,000 but up in sales by nearly 700,000.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

nuckles87 on 20 August 2018

Given that Pachter, whether he’s positive or negative, tends to predict the opposite of what ends up happening...can’t say this really sways me much either way here. XD

Switch could certainly miss its forecast. It’s first quarter was basically the same as last year. But predicting 8 million seems a tad...overblown.

Nintendo has always made the bulk of its sales during the holiday season. Given that Nintendo didn’t lower their expectations after Labo floundered, I imagine they’ve always thought they’d make the bulk of their sales with Pokemon and Smash.



Megiddo on 20 August 2018
Jumpin said:
Megiddo said:

Isn't it down YoY so far despite last year having massive supply issues/shortages?

It's down in shipments by 80K, but up in sales by 1 million.

Wow, it's up that much in sales? Can you link your source to this information?