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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: Switch on track to sell only 8 million systems this Fiscal Year

Bofferbrauer2 on 20 August 2018
xMetroid said:
SammyGiireal said:

I said 10-12 million on another thread, and no one seemed to agree. 20 mil are high expectations and 8 are too low. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

10-12 is way too low. It did over 15 millions last FY why would it suddenly cut 5 millions with 2 huge system seller, no stock issues and probably a better holiday/Black friday presence.

13M in the FY, the 2.8M from launch month don't count

However, while the shipment was lower, actual sales were higher since there was nothing on shelves April first last year, while this year the Switch was overstocked a bit. According to VGC tracking the Switch actually sold about 500k Q1 this year than last year (FY Q1, meaning April-June)



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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curl-6 on 20 August 2018
thismeintiel said:

 Personally, I think it hits 17M-18M. 

Yeah I think so too.

If Smash was hitting in October and Let's Go was a full fledged next-gen Pokemon then 20 million would be a breeeze, but as things stand, it's not happening.

On the other hand though, 8 million is just absurd. Maybe if a meteor strikes the factories they're built in...



LipeJJ on 20 August 2018
Megiddo said:

Title needs to be updated as he only mentions that the Switch is tracking towards only shipping 8 mil this fiscal year, which is basically just saying that the first quarter was awful, which it was. Nintendo needs stronger quarters than that if it hopes to come even close to shipping 20 million this fiscal year.

We know it will almost solely come down the holiday quarter. I expect it to go down like this:  1.9m Q1 / 2.6m Q2 / 10m Q3 / 3.8m Q4 / Total: 18.3m. So a bit short of what Nintendo expects, but who knows... based on predictions from most people, maybe I'm being a bit pessimistic.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

KLXVER on 20 August 2018

How much has it sold between april 1st this year and now?



Bofferbrauer2 on 20 August 2018
KLXVER said:
How much has it sold between april 1st this year and now?

A bit over 2.3M between Week 13 and Week 29 (ending July 28) according to VGC



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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S.Peelman on 20 August 2018

So the math here is “Q1 x 4”. That makes no sense.



pokoko on 20 August 2018
zorg1000 said:
pokoko said:
I don't really understand this thread. A lot of people have predicted that the Switch won't reach 20 million. Why is that "bold"?

There is a difference between saying it will miss its shipment goals and saying it will miss it by 12 million.

He didn't say it would miss by 12 million.  I watched the video.  He said it would miss by a lot but he never gave a specific prediction.  I understand that some fans hate Pachter because he's mean to their favorite company but there is really no reason to be drama queens over each little word.  He didn't say that he thought it would end up selling eight million.  He might think that but he didn't say that in this video.  



KLXVER on 20 August 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
KLXVER said:
How much has it sold between april 1st this year and now?

A bit over 2.3M between Week 13 and Week 29 (ending July 28) according to VGC

Ok, so its not like an outrageous claim I guess.

The guy is an analyst though. Hes not going to take guesses. He just compares data with previous consoles in their second year, what the impact the last Smash and Pokémon game had on sales, the current rise and declines in sales etc...

Maybe he goes a bit "crazy", because if hes wrong, then its no big deal. But if hes right, then people go "wow, he was actually right" and his business expands.



Bofferbrauer2 on 20 August 2018
KLXVER said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

A bit over 2.3M between Week 13 and Week 29 (ending July 28) according to VGC

Ok, so its not like an outrageous claim I guess.

The guy is an analyst though. Hes not going to take guesses. He just compares data with previous consoles in their second year, what the impact the last Smash and Pokémon game had on sales, the current rise and declines in sales etc...

Maybe he goes a bit "crazy", because if hes wrong, then its no big deal. But if hes right, then people go "wow, he was actually right" and his business expands.

Ever heard of holiday season?

Pachter basically just took Nintendos FY Q1 results (April to June), multiplied by 4 and rounded up. But with the 1-2-3 Falcon! Punch!! of Super Mario Party, Pokémon and Smash alone should suffice to give Q3 (October to December) well over 8M alone, nevermind what Q2 and Q4 will bring.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Korvo_Attano on 20 August 2018

How many times does he have to be proven wrong before people stop listening to him? Is he expecting the Switch to sell the same on the last quarter with Black Friday and Christmas involved as with the previous 3?