Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii vs Switch vs 3DS vs PS4 : shipment accumulation by declared fiscal quarter result

Amnesia said:
DonFerrari said:

That is the issue when comparing with few Qs systems that launched in different Qs.

Yes but the initial few first Q results differences tends to become neglectable after 2-3 years.

Watching the curves for Wii/3DS/PS4 is fair after 4 years even if the 3DS has not started at the same Q.

Yep, totally agree.

All we can say is that so far Switch have been trending similar to sucessful platforms Wii and PS4 (with only this Q being low and not yet demonstration of change of pace).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

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They should propose a "Switch fit". This shit would sell like hell exactely like so many 30-40 years old mother bought it to lose weight and at the end, the Wii and the Wii fit stayed unused for years with dust under the TV. I have seen so many like this. This is how I got my Wii for free : my grand sister was never using it.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

Switch is doing well now, but it's final sales curve is going to look like the DS. The DS did pretty well in its first couple of years, but then it really took off to unprecedented levels. Expect to see that from Switch next year. The people who don't think the Switch will clear 80m are in for a huge surprise.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
  • Switch is doing well now, but it's final sales curve is going to look like the DS. The DS did pretty well in its first couple of years, but then it really took off to unprecedented levels. Expect to see that from Switch next year. The people who don't think the Switch will clear 80m are in for a huge surprise.

How did you reach that conclusion. Not saying you are wrong just curious. 



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Qwark said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
  • Switch is doing well now, but it's final sales curve is going to look like the DS. The DS did pretty well in its first couple of years, but then it really took off to unprecedented levels. Expect to see that from Switch next year. The people who don't think the Switch will clear 80m are in for a huge surprise.

How did you reach that conclusion. Not saying you are wrong just curious. 

The long version of my thoughts are here:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234359&page=1


The short version is with Switch, Nintendo is using their prowess in the handheld market to also claim the home market.  Right now it is mostly selling to the handheld market, but once it's library gets larger, then the home market will start buying Switches too.  It usually takes third parties a couple of years or so to make games, so I expect a pretty good amount of third party games to come out next year (and even more in 2020 and so on).



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Switch is doing well now, but it's final sales curve is going to look like the DS. The DS did pretty well in its first couple of years, but then it really took off to unprecedented levels. Expect to see that from Switch next year. The people who don't think the Switch will clear 80m are in for a huge surprise.

I actually agree, my prediction is 70M, I think that there won't be any Switch Pro, because the Switch is already the "Wii U Pro" of the 8th gen. Nintendo is preparing a next device which will be certainly a hybrid system as powerfull as the PS4 Pro for 2022-2023. Around 2020, there won't be anymore new third party AAA game developed for the too weak hardware of the Switch, Nintendo will keep in stable health the consolde with only Nintendo AAA games until the end, and only very few 3rd party small games. So 70-75M is my expectation.

But hey, that's fine ! 18 months ago everybody was thinking that beating the Wii U would be already a good thing. My expectation at this period was 30-35M max.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Qwark said:

How did you reach that conclusion. Not saying you are wrong just curious. 

The long version of my thoughts are here:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234359&page=1


The short version is with Switch, Nintendo is using their prowess in the handheld market to also claim the home market.  Right now it is mostly selling to the handheld market, but once it's library gets larger, then the home market will start buying Switches too.  It usually takes third parties a couple of years or so to make games, so I expect a pretty good amount of third party games to come out next year (and even more in 2020 and so on).

I can see the logic behind it though you have not factored in the PS5 an X2. In my opinion the handheld market has declined quite a bit and I doubt that many third parties will start developing or porting to Switch. The power difference between the PS5 and Switch will be massive. So while I guess it will sell good primairy on indies and exclusives I doubt third parties will be a big factor.

My estimate is that the Switch will either peak in 2019 or 2020 and will steadily declined to 100-110 million units till the Switch 2 releases in 2023 or 2024. But I don't see the Switch selling more than the DS or PS2)(long reaction). 



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Amnesia said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Switch is doing well now, but it's final sales curve is going to look like the DS. The DS did pretty well in its first couple of years, but then it really took off to unprecedented levels. Expect to see that from Switch next year. The people who don't think the Switch will clear 80m are in for a huge surprise.

I actually agree, my prediction is 70M, I think that there won't be any Switch Pro, because the Switch is already the "Wii U Pro" of the 8th gen. Nintendo is preparing a next device which will be certainly a hybrid system as powerfull as the PS4 Pro for 2022-2023. Around 2020, there won't be anymore new third party AAA game developed for the too weak hardware of the Switch, Nintendo will keep in stable health the consolde with only Nintendo AAA games until the end, and only very few 3rd party small games. So 70-75M is my expectation.

But hey, that's fine ! 18 months ago everybody was thinking that beating the Wii U would be already a good thing. My expectation at this period was 30-35M max.

Ugh ?

Wii U doesn't exist in Nintendo's mind, i don't think Switch being a "Wii U pro" (which doesn't make sense since the concept is literally the other way around from the Wii U) will affect Nintendo into not making a revision like they did with almost all their handhelds. I just think they will wait for the release of the PS5/Xbox and release something pretty big so it can share the spotlight. 

Also, not having big third party AAA games didn't stop the Wii and DS to surpass the 100 and 150 million units. We are actually seeing more of it already on Switch so that argument is irrelevant. Games like Skyrim, Fifa 18, Octopath and Mario + Rabbis are doing really really good numbers on Switch and i don't think they will drop that market. I actually think we have seen nothing in term of third party support for Switch and that Squeenix, Ubisoft, capcom etc will have pretty big games coming in the future.

I don't think the Switch could end up performing like the 3DS while it's doing better with double the price, no deals and droughts while 3DS had a big boom in it's first year with price cut, MK7 and cie. Switch managed to surpass it without a new mario kart and no price cut with a price already higher than the 3DS BEFORE the price cut. 

That leaves a huge margin of deals for the Switch in the coming years seeing how it is performing with no games and no deals. It will skyrocket during Q4 if they promote it even just a little with a small discount.



Amnesia said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Switch is doing well now, but it's final sales curve is going to look like the DS. The DS did pretty well in its first couple of years, but then it really took off to unprecedented levels. Expect to see that from Switch next year. The people who don't think the Switch will clear 80m are in for a huge surprise.

I actually agree, my prediction is 70M, I think that there won't be any Switch Pro, because the Switch is already the "Wii U Pro" of the 8th gen. Nintendo is preparing a next device which will be certainly a hybrid system as powerfull as the PS4 Pro for 2022-2023. Around 2020, there won't be anymore new third party AAA game developed for the too weak hardware of the Switch, Nintendo will keep in stable health the consolde with only Nintendo AAA games until the end, and only very few 3rd party small games. So 70-75M is my expectation.

But hey, that's fine ! 18 months ago everybody was thinking that beating the Wii U would be already a good thing. My expectation at this period was 30-35M max.

You are in for a big surprise.  If you ever thought Switch would only sell 30-35m, then you need to seriously reevaluate your assumptions.  Sales are not just about fitting data to a best fit curve.  Sales are a reflection of human behavior.  To understand how the Switch will perform, you need to know why people are enthusiastically buying the Switch, while most people gave the Wii U a pass.

 

Qwark said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The long version of my thoughts are here:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234359&page=1


The short version is with Switch, Nintendo is using their prowess in the handheld market to also claim the home market.  Right now it is mostly selling to the handheld market, but once it's library gets larger, then the home market will start buying Switches too.  It usually takes third parties a couple of years or so to make games, so I expect a pretty good amount of third party games to come out next year (and even more in 2020 and so on).

I can see the logic behind it though you have not factored in the PS5 an X2. In my opinion the handheld market has declined quite a bit and I doubt that many third parties will start developing or porting to Switch. The power difference between the PS5 and Switch will be massive. So while I guess it will sell good primairy on indies and exclusives I doubt third parties will be a big factor.

My estimate is that the Switch will either peak in 2019 or 2020 and will steadily declined to 100-110 million units till the Switch 2 releases in 2023 or 2024. But I don't see the Switch selling more than the DS or PS2)(long reaction). 

It's true that the handheld market has declined a lot, but that ignores that it had grown to unprecedented levels during generation 7.  The 3DS+ Vita market is still about 90m.  The 3DS already has 1297 games.  (A lot of those are digital though.)  When you look at physical 3rd party games it's still over 500.  That is a lot of third party games, and the Vita has a good chunk too.  All of those developers are going to be making games for the Switch.  Switch will have plenty of third party games even if you don't also add in the ports from bigger home developers like Bethesda.

I have taken PS5 and X2 into account as well.  Historically powerful consoles are at a disadvantage.  If you go back since the beginning there have been 8 home generations and 5 handheld generations.  The more powerful console has only won twice (SNES and PS4).  The powerful console loses 11/13 times.  That is not a good track record for power.  Power and cost go hand in hand, and most consumers just go with the cheaper console over the powerful one.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

It's true that the handheld market has declined a lot, but that ignores that it had grown to unprecedented levels during generation 7.  The 3DS+ Vita market is still about 90m.  The 3DS already has 1297 games.  (A lot of those are digital though.)  When you look at physical 3rd party games it's still over 500.  That is a lot of third party games, and the Vita has a good chunk too.  All of those developers are going to be making games for the Switch.  Switch will have plenty of third party games even if you don't also add in the ports from bigger home developers like Bethesda.

I have taken PS5 and X2 into account as well.  Historically powerful consoles are at a disadvantage.  If you go back since the beginning there have been 8 home generations and 5 handheld generations.  The more powerful console has only won twice (SNES and PS4).  The powerful console loses 11/13 times.  That is not a good track record for power.  Power and cost go hand in hand, and most consumers just go with the cheaper console over the powerful one.

Actually even just once, since there was a thing called Neo Geo during the SNES era that obliterated SNES specs before breakfast. The PC Engine SupergraphX was also more powerful than the SNES and one of the biggest flops in Videogame history