Wii vs Switch vs 3DS vs PS4 : shipment accumulation by declared fiscal quarter result

[Qwark]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Qwark said:

How did you reach that conclusion. Not saying you are wrong just curious. 

The long version of my thoughts are here:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234359&page=1


The short version is with Switch, Nintendo is using their prowess in the handheld market to also claim the home market.  Right now it is mostly selling to the handheld market, but once it's library gets larger, then the home market will start buying Switches too.  It usually takes third parties a couple of years or so to make games, so I expect a pretty good amount of third party games to come out next year (and even more in 2020 and so on).

I can see the logic behind it though you have not factored in the PS5 an X2. In my opinion the handheld market has declined quite a bit and I doubt that many third parties will start developing or porting to Switch. The power difference between the PS5 and Switch will be massive. So while I guess it will sell good primairy on indies and exclusives I doubt third parties will be a big factor.

My estimate is that the Switch will either peak in 2019 or 2020 and will steadily declined to 100-110 million units till the Switch 2 releases in 2023 or 2024. But I don't see the Switch selling more than the DS or PS2)(long reaction).