Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii vs Switch vs 3DS vs PS4 : shipment accumulation by declared fiscal quarter result

Comparison from start. In red the possible prevision (mine), to reach the current previsions for both Nintendo and SONY, but these red values are not on the graph.

 

Alternative comparison : this time we compare for all of them at the same first fiscal Q4 so the trimesters are aligned, the first Q3 of the Wii and PS4 are simply ignored :

Last edited by Amnesia - on 30 October 2018

Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Around the Network

Things are going very smoothly for the Switch in the sales department on the whole. Even if it wasn't to reach 20 million shipped this fiscal year, because its such a high target it wouldn't even fall too far behind the Wii to not be able to catch up and could keep pace with PS4 which did 17.7 million for its second full fiscal year.

Last edited by Green098 - on 03 August 2018

Could you add 3DS to this as well?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Could you add 3DS to this as well?

Sure. Give me 10min



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Switch is still looking very good. Since the launch quarters differ in such comparisons, the best way is to look at the LTD numbers after quarter 4, 8, 12 etc., because those intervalls of 4 mean that each console has covered all quarters of a year exactly once.

Switch was first after 4 quarters and will only fall behind Wii after 8 quarters, because shipping 10m+ units over the next two quarters is doable.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Around the Network

It all depends if this was just an unusual low month or if its sales curve will start to decelerate...

So far it seems very good



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

zorg1000 said:
Could you add 3DS to this as well?

First post updated. And the title of the topic too.

I wanted first a light green for the 3DS but probably someone will ask me to add the XBOX360...

We use to say that Wii and PS4 have 1 more Q3 in advance on Switch, but their first Q3 was poor actually...It is better to say that Switch only have 1 Q3 and the 2 others have 1,5 Q3. When a console launches in Q3, it is a small Q3 at the end.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 03 August 2018

Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Green098 said:

Things are going very smoothly for the Switch in the sales department on the whole. Even if it wasn't to reach 20 million shipped this fiscal year, because its such a high target it wouldn't even fall too far behind the Wii which shipped 20.77 million its second full fiscal year and PS4 which did 17.7 million.

Pretty sure Wii shipped 25.95 its second (full) fiscal year. That was also the system's peak, it would be all downhill after that, dropping to 20 the next fiscal year, then 15 the following year, and then finally faltering to 9 mill. 

As long as Switch stays on pace with the PS4 more or less, that's fine, everything else is gravy. Wii was driven by fad-like trends, Switch is a more sustainable type of system that may not peak as high but won't be held at the mercy of a wishy washy audience that craters later on. 3DS also took a hit in its middle years due to not having enough differentiation from the booming smartphone gaming market. Switch can play console-style games so that will always keep it cushioned from the impacts of mobile gaming. 

PS4 is going to crush 100 million easily and probably hit 120+ mill ... long term that's a better platform to aspire towards, the challenge for Nintendo is going to be to not have heavy declines in year 4/5/6, which I think can be mitigated by a Switch Pro model. But PS4 did 17.7 in its second full fiscal year, Nintendo should be able to match/exceed that, if they can do even 18.5, that's a good result. 



I could bet you now 200$ that the Switch makes 18,5 lol.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Soundwave said:
Green098 said:

Things are going very smoothly for the Switch in the sales department on the whole. Even if it wasn't to reach 20 million shipped this fiscal year, because its such a high target it wouldn't even fall too far behind the Wii which shipped 20.77 million its second full fiscal year and PS4 which did 17.7 million.

Pretty sure Wii shipped 25.95 its second (full) fiscal year. That was also the system's peak, it would be all downhill after that, dropping to 20 the next fiscal year, then 15 the following year, and then finally faltering to 9 mill. 

As long as Switch stays on pace with the PS4 more or less, that's fine, everything else is gravy. Wii was driven by fad-like trends, Switch is a more sustainable type of system that may not peak as high but won't be held at the mercy of a wishy washy audience that craters later on. 3DS also took a hit in its middle years due to not having enough differentiation from the booming smartphone gaming market. Switch can play console-style games so that will always keep it cushioned from the impacts of mobile gaming. 

PS4 is going to crush 100 million easily and probably hit 120+ mill ... long term that's a better platform to aspire towards, the challenge for Nintendo is going to be to not have heavy declines in year 4/5/6, which I think can be mitigated by a Switch Pro model. But PS4 did 17.7 in its second full fiscal year, Nintendo should be able to match/exceed that, if they can do even 18.5, that's a good result. 

Life-to-date number of units shipped, millions
DateJapanAmericasOtherWorldwideIncrease
2006-12-31[1] 1.14 1.25 0.80 3.19 N/A
2007-03-31[2] 2.00 2.37 1.47 5.84 83.07%
2007-06-30[3] 2.95 3.81 2.51 9.27 58.73%
2007-09-30[4] 3.67 5.46 4.04 13.17 42.07%
2007-12-31[5] 4.99 8.85 6.30 20.13 52.85%
2008-03-31[6] 5.90 10.61 7.94 24.45 21.46%
2008-06-30[7]6.4313.1110.0829.6221.15%
2008-09-30[8]6.9115.1912.4534.5516.64%
2008-12-31[9]7.8020.4016.7644.9630.13%
2009-03-31[10]7.9623.5418.8950.3912.08%

I got 20.77 from these numbers; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_sales

1st Full Fiscal Year of Wii Sales April 1st 2007 - March 31st 2008: 15.18 million (24.45-9.27)

2nd Full Fiscal Year of Wii Sales  April 1st 2008 - March 31st 2009: 20.77 million (50.39-29.62)