Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii vs Switch vs 3DS vs PS4 : shipment accumulation by declared fiscal quarter result

Green098 said:
Soundwave said:

Pretty sure Wii shipped 25.95 its second (full) fiscal year. That was also the system's peak, it would be all downhill after that, dropping to 20 the next fiscal year, then 15 the following year, and then finally faltering to 9 mill. 

As long as Switch stays on pace with the PS4 more or less, that's fine, everything else is gravy. Wii was driven by fad-like trends, Switch is a more sustainable type of system that may not peak as high but won't be held at the mercy of a wishy washy audience that craters later on. 3DS also took a hit in its middle years due to not having enough differentiation from the booming smartphone gaming market. Switch can play console-style games so that will always keep it cushioned from the impacts of mobile gaming. 

PS4 is going to crush 100 million easily and probably hit 120+ mill ... long term that's a better platform to aspire towards, the challenge for Nintendo is going to be to not have heavy declines in year 4/5/6, which I think can be mitigated by a Switch Pro model. But PS4 did 17.7 in its second full fiscal year, Nintendo should be able to match/exceed that, if they can do even 18.5, that's a good result. 

Life-to-date number of units shipped, millions
DateJapanAmericasOtherWorldwideIncrease
2006-12-31[1] 1.14 1.25 0.80 3.19 N/A
2007-03-31[2] 2.00 2.37 1.47 5.84 83.07%
2007-06-30[3] 2.95 3.81 2.51 9.27 58.73%
2007-09-30[4] 3.67 5.46 4.04 13.17 42.07%
2007-12-31[5] 4.99 8.85 6.30 20.13 52.85%
2008-03-31[6] 5.90 10.61 7.94 24.45 21.46%
2008-06-30[7]6.4313.1110.0829.6221.15%
2008-09-30[8]6.9115.1912.4534.5516.64%
2008-12-31[9]7.8020.4016.7644.9630.13%
2009-03-31[10]7.9623.5418.8950.3912.08%

I got 20.77 from these numbers; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_sales

1st Full Fiscal Year of Wii Sales April 1st 2007 - March 31st 2008: 15.18 million (24.45-9.27)

2nd Full Fiscal Year of Wii Sales  April 1st 2008 - March 31st 2009: 20.77 million (50.39-29.62)

You're doing it wrong, its 50.39-24.45 & 24.45-5.84



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zorg1000 said:
Green098 said:
Life-to-date number of units shipped, millions
DateJapanAmericasOtherWorldwideIncrease
2006-12-31[1] 1.14 1.25 0.80 3.19 N/A
2007-03-31[2] 2.00 2.37 1.47 5.84 83.07%
2007-06-30[3] 2.95 3.81 2.51 9.27 58.73%
2007-09-30[4] 3.67 5.46 4.04 13.17 42.07%
2007-12-31[5] 4.99 8.85 6.30 20.13 52.85%
2008-03-31[6] 5.90 10.61 7.94 24.45 21.46%
2008-06-30[7]6.4313.1110.0829.6221.15%
2008-09-30[8]6.9115.1912.4534.5516.64%
2008-12-31[9]7.8020.4016.7644.9630.13%
2009-03-31[10]7.9623.5418.8950.3912.08%

I got 20.77 from these numbers; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_sales

1st Full Fiscal Year of Wii Sales April 1st 2007 - March 31st 2008: 15.18 million (24.45-9.27)

2nd Full Fiscal Year of Wii Sales  April 1st 2008 - March 31st 2009: 20.77 million (50.39-29.62)

You're doing it wrong, its 50.39-24.45 & 24.45-5.84

Oops your right my bad, it's too late for me for my brain to function correctly haha.



Soundwave said:

Pretty sure Wii shipped 25.95 its second (full) fiscal year. That was also the system's peak, it would be all downhill after that, dropping to 20 the next fiscal year, then 15 the following year, and then finally faltering to 9 mill. 

Notable Releases
2006: Wii Sports, Twilight Princess
2007: Wii Play, Cooking Mama, Paper Mario, Mario Party 8, Mario Strikers, Metroid Prime 3, Mario Galaxy, Mario & Sonic, Links Crossbow
2008: Smash Bros., Mario Kart, Wii Fit, Mario Sluggers, Animal Crossing
2009: Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, New Mario Bros.
2010: Galaxy 2, DK Returns
2011: Skyward Sword
2012: Mario Party 9

Isn't it funny how sales went downhill when the games stopped coming?

You blame the casuals for the decline of the Wii but the blame is squarely on Nintendo. 

p0isonparadise said:
Soundwave said:

Pretty sure Wii shipped 25.95 its second (full) fiscal year. That was also the system's peak, it would be all downhill after that, dropping to 20 the next fiscal year, then 15 the following year, and then finally faltering to 9 mill. 

Notable Releases
2006: Wii Sports, Twilight Princess
2007: Wii Play, Cooking Mama, Paper Mario, Mario Party 8, Mario Strikers, Metroid Prime 3, Mario Galaxy, Mario & Sonic, Links Crossbow
2008: Smash Bros., Mario Kart, Wii Fit, Mario Sluggers, Animal Crossing
2009: Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, New Mario Bros.
2010: Galaxy 2, DK Returns
2011: Skyward Sword
2012: Mario Party 9

Isn't it funny how sales went downhill when the games stopped coming?

You blame the casuals for the decline of the Wii but the blame is squarely on Nintendo. 

Overall there was still plenty of content coming especially in 2010. 

2010 had Super Mario Galaxy 2, DKC Returns, Just Dance 2 (huge seller), Wii Party (9 million seller), Kirby's Epic Yarn, Metroid: Other M, Monster Hunter Tri, EA Active 2, Fling Smash, Sin & Punishment 2 (US/EU), Epic Mickey, GoldenEye 007, Red Steel 2, uDraw

2011 had Zelda: Skyward Sword, Xenoblade (US/EU), Kirby: Return to Dreamland, Wii Play Motion, Mario & Sonic London Olympics, Just Dance 3, The Last Story (JPN)

They had to prep for 3DS, that's just a reality, the DS did not get tons of software support from Nintendo in 2010 and 2011 either, yet its sales held a lot better. 

But the fact is Wii was seeing large declines in sales for years:

FY Apr 08 to Mar 09 - 25.59 (peak sales)

FY Apr 09 to Mar 10 - 20.54 (down 5.05 million) *price cut $199.99

FY Apr 10 to Mar 11 - 15.08 (down another 5.4 million)

FY April 11 to Mar 12 - 9.84 (down again 5.3 million) *price cut $149.99

So for like example Mario Galaxy 2 (7.41 million) + DKCR (6.5 million) + Wii Party (9.3 million) + Just Dance 2 (5 million+) could not stop the Wii from losing 5+ million, these are not small selling games. The system was bleeding customers long before 2011/12, even the year it had Wii Sports Resort + Wii Fit Plus + New Super Mario Bros. Wii + price cut, they still lost 5+ million from the year before. 

Hopefully Switch's sales pattern can be more like the PS4, which is much healthier overall. Nintendo only has so many franchises too, even if say 2011 had New Super Mario Bros. 2 and Pikmin 3 or something, how much of a hardware boost are you really getting at that point?

Last edited by Soundwave - on 03 August 2018

I totally forgot about Wii Party, oops! Just Dance was huge but it was third-party and I don't think it moved hardware much, more like Ubisoft striking gold by making a game fit for the userbase.

I still stand by what I said. Most of those games you list aren't what I would call notable, and that's just a matter of opinion. Wii sales were obviously going to go down regardless, I just think its decline could've been softer than it was. I just feel there was a lot of missed potential.

Anyways, I derailed this thread long enough. If Nintendo plays its cards right I could see Switch doing more of a Game Boy/DS hybrid sales trend.



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Yea that's what i thought, people are saying Switch is doing bad while it's so close to the PS4 with 1 holiday against 2. It's literally keeping a better pace then the PS4 right now even tho it had a pretty big drought. If Nintendo don't do the same mistake again and bring back big exclusives, i can see the Switch keeping up with the PS4 for several years and maybe finishing close to it or even beating it.




I feel like this would be reasonable blue print looking long term. You wanna keep strength in those later years and not collapse down into sub-15 mill and sub-10 mill years by year 5/6.

FY18-19: 18.5 mill (lower end estimate, if you get 20, great)

FY19-20: 21+ mill, Pokemon Gen 8 + Animal Crossing (?) + Mario Maker + Bayo 3 + Fire Emblem + Metroid Prime 4 (?) + Star Fox Grand Prix + Monster Hunter Switch + Wario Ware Switch + DQXI + Switch Lite revision (12nm die shrink, less wide, lighter, better battery), price drop to $249.99. Peak Year.

FY20-21: 20+ mill, Switch Pro XL Mid-Gen Refresh boosts sales momentum ($300). Switch Lite price drop to $199.99. Zelda: BOTW2 (?), Luigi's Mansion 3, Mario Odyssey 2, Octopath 2, 2D Metroid, Final Fantasy VII Remake, Wave Race Rumble Storm, Elder Scrolls VI, Mario & Rabbids 2, Resident Evil 8.

FY21-22: 18.5 mill, still good momentum from Switch Pro like PS4 Pro and XB1 X are holding, 2D Super Mario Bros., Donkey Kong Switch (3D DKC), Fire Emblem Switch 2, Xenoblade Next, Pokemon Gen 8 Evolution, Monster Hunter Switch X, Dragon Quest XII, Street Fighter VI. 

Would put you right around 96-97+ million LTD by March 31, 2022, should be able to cross 110+ million the following fiscal year.



xMetroid said:
Yea that's what i thought, people are saying Switch is doing bad while it's so close to the PS4 with 1 holiday against 2. It's literally keeping a better pace then the PS4 right now even tho it had a pretty big drought. If Nintendo don't do the same mistake again and bring back big exclusives, i can see the Switch keeping up with the PS4 for several years and maybe finishing close to it or even beating it.

 

No. Look at both first Q3 of the Wii and the PS4. These are not real Q3.

Switch had only 1 Q3, PS4 and Wii had "one anf hald" Q3.



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Amnesia said:
xMetroid said:
Yea that's what i thought, people are saying Switch is doing bad while it's so close to the PS4 with 1 holiday against 2. It's literally keeping a better pace then the PS4 right now even tho it had a pretty big drought. If Nintendo don't do the same mistake again and bring back big exclusives, i can see the Switch keeping up with the PS4 for several years and maybe finishing close to it or even beating it.

 

No. Look at both first Q3 of the Wii and the PS4. These are not real Q3.

Switch had only 1 Q3, PS4 and Wii had "one anf hald" Q3.

That is the issue when comparing with few Qs systems that launched in different Qs.



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DonFerrari said:
Amnesia said:

 

No. Look at both first Q3 of the Wii and the PS4. These are not real Q3.

Switch had only 1 Q3, PS4 and Wii had "one anf hald" Q3.

That is the issue when comparing with few Qs systems that launched in different Qs.

Yes but the initial few first Q results differences tends to become neglectable after 2-3 years.

Watching the curves for Wii/3DS/PS4 is fair after 4 years even if the 3DS has not started at the same Q.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.