Oops your right my bad, it's too late for me for my brain to function correctly haha.

Overall there was still plenty of content coming especially in 2010. 

2010 had Super Mario Galaxy 2, DKC Returns, Just Dance 2 (huge seller), Wii Party (9 million seller), Kirby's Epic Yarn, Metroid: Other M, Monster Hunter Tri, EA Active 2, Fling Smash, Sin & Punishment 2 (US/EU), Epic Mickey, GoldenEye 007, Red Steel 2, uDraw

2011 had Zelda: Skyward Sword, Xenoblade (US/EU), Kirby: Return to Dreamland, Wii Play Motion, Mario & Sonic London Olympics, Just Dance 3, The Last Story (JPN)

They had to prep for 3DS, that's just a reality, the DS did not get tons of software support from Nintendo in 2010 and 2011 either, yet its sales held a lot better. 

But the fact is Wii was seeing large declines in sales for years:

FY Apr 08 to Mar 09 - 25.59 (peak sales)

FY Apr 09 to Mar 10 - 20.54 (down 5.05 million) *price cut $199.99

FY Apr 10 to Mar 11 - 15.08 (down another 5.4 million)

FY April 11 to Mar 12 - 9.84 (down again 5.3 million) *price cut $149.99

So for like example Mario Galaxy 2 (7.41 million) + DKCR (6.5 million) + Wii Party (9.3 million) + Just Dance 2 (5 million+) could not stop the Wii from losing 5+ million, these are not small selling games. The system was bleeding customers long before 2011/12, even the year it had Wii Sports Resort + Wii Fit Plus + New Super Mario Bros. Wii + price cut, they still lost 5+ million from the year before. 

Hopefully Switch's sales pattern can be more like the PS4, which is much healthier overall. Nintendo only has so many franchises too, even if say 2011 had New Super Mario Bros. 2 and Pikmin 3 or something, how much of a hardware boost are you really getting at that point?

I totally forgot about Wii Party, oops! Just Dance was huge but it was third-party and I don't think it moved hardware much, more like Ubisoft striking gold by making a game fit for the userbase.

I still stand by what I said. Most of those games you list aren't what I would call notable, and that's just a matter of opinion. Wii sales were obviously going to go down regardless, I just think its decline could've been softer than it was. I just feel there was a lot of missed potential.

Anyways, I derailed this thread long enough. If Nintendo plays its cards right I could see Switch doing more of a Game Boy/DS hybrid sales trend.

Yea that's what i thought, people are saying Switch is doing bad while it's so close to the PS4 with 1 holiday against 2. It's literally keeping a better pace then the PS4 right now even tho it had a pretty big drought. If Nintendo don't do the same mistake again and bring back big exclusives, i can see the Switch keeping up with the PS4 for several years and maybe finishing close to it or even beating it.

I feel like this would be reasonable blue print looking long term. You wanna keep strength in those later years and not collapse down into sub-15 mill and sub-10 mill years by year 5/6.

FY18-19: 18.5 mill (lower end estimate, if you get 20, great)

FY19-20: 21+ mill, Pokemon Gen 8 + Animal Crossing (?) + Mario Maker + Bayo 3 + Fire Emblem + Metroid Prime 4 (?) + Star Fox Grand Prix + Monster Hunter Switch + Wario Ware Switch + DQXI + Switch Lite revision (12nm die shrink, less wide, lighter, better battery), price drop to $249.99. Peak Year.

FY20-21: 20+ mill, Switch Pro XL Mid-Gen Refresh boosts sales momentum ($300). Switch Lite price drop to $199.99. Zelda: BOTW2 (?), Luigi's Mansion 3, Mario Odyssey 2, Octopath 2, 2D Metroid, Final Fantasy VII Remake, Wave Race Rumble Storm, Elder Scrolls VI, Mario & Rabbids 2, Resident Evil 8.

FY21-22: 18.5 mill, still good momentum from Switch Pro like PS4 Pro and XB1 X are holding, 2D Super Mario Bros., Donkey Kong Switch (3D DKC), Fire Emblem Switch 2, Xenoblade Next, Pokemon Gen 8 Evolution, Monster Hunter Switch X, Dragon Quest XII, Street Fighter VI. 

Would put you right around 96-97+ million LTD by March 31, 2022, should be able to cross 110+ million the following fiscal year.

No. Look at both first Q3 of the Wii and the PS4. These are not real Q3.

Switch had only 1 Q3, PS4 and Wii had "one anf hald" Q3.

That is the issue when comparing with few Qs systems that launched in different Qs.

Yes but the initial few first Q results differences tends to become neglectable after 2-3 years.

Watching the curves for Wii/3DS/PS4 is fair after 4 years even if the 3DS has not started at the same Q.

Yep, totally agree.

All we can say is that so far Switch have been trending similar to sucessful platforms Wii and PS4 (with only this Q being low and not yet demonstration of change of pace).