Wii vs Switch vs 3DS vs PS4 : shipment accumulation by declared fiscal quarter result

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Amnesia said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Switch is doing well now, but it's final sales curve is going to look like the DS. The DS did pretty well in its first couple of years, but then it really took off to unprecedented levels. Expect to see that from Switch next year. The people who don't think the Switch will clear 80m are in for a huge surprise.

I actually agree, my prediction is 70M, I think that there won't be any Switch Pro, because the Switch is already the "Wii U Pro" of the 8th gen. Nintendo is preparing a next device which will be certainly a hybrid system as powerfull as the PS4 Pro for 2022-2023. Around 2020, there won't be anymore new third party AAA game developed for the too weak hardware of the Switch, Nintendo will keep in stable health the consolde with only Nintendo AAA games until the end, and only very few 3rd party small games. So 70-75M is my expectation.

But hey, that's fine ! 18 months ago everybody was thinking that beating the Wii U would be already a good thing. My expectation at this period was 30-35M max.

You are in for a big surprise.  If you ever thought Switch would only sell 30-35m, then you need to seriously reevaluate your assumptions.  Sales are not just about fitting data to a best fit curve.  Sales are a reflection of human behavior.  To understand how the Switch will perform, you need to know why people are enthusiastically buying the Switch, while most people gave the Wii U a pass.

 

Qwark said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

The long version of my thoughts are here:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234359&page=1


The short version is with Switch, Nintendo is using their prowess in the handheld market to also claim the home market.  Right now it is mostly selling to the handheld market, but once it's library gets larger, then the home market will start buying Switches too.  It usually takes third parties a couple of years or so to make games, so I expect a pretty good amount of third party games to come out next year (and even more in 2020 and so on).

I can see the logic behind it though you have not factored in the PS5 an X2. In my opinion the handheld market has declined quite a bit and I doubt that many third parties will start developing or porting to Switch. The power difference between the PS5 and Switch will be massive. So while I guess it will sell good primairy on indies and exclusives I doubt third parties will be a big factor.

My estimate is that the Switch will either peak in 2019 or 2020 and will steadily declined to 100-110 million units till the Switch 2 releases in 2023 or 2024. But I don't see the Switch selling more than the DS or PS2)(long reaction). 

It's true that the handheld market has declined a lot, but that ignores that it had grown to unprecedented levels during generation 7.  The 3DS+ Vita market is still about 90m.  The 3DS already has 1297 games.  (A lot of those are digital though.)  When you look at physical 3rd party games it's still over 500.  That is a lot of third party games, and the Vita has a good chunk too.  All of those developers are going to be making games for the Switch.  Switch will have plenty of third party games even if you don't also add in the ports from bigger home developers like Bethesda.

I have taken PS5 and X2 into account as well.  Historically powerful consoles are at a disadvantage.  If you go back since the beginning there have been 8 home generations and 5 handheld generations.  The more powerful console has only won twice (SNES and PS4).  The powerful console loses 11/13 times.  That is not a good track record for power.  Power and cost go hand in hand, and most consumers just go with the cheaper console over the powerful one.