Not really, how many games sell double there lifetime after there intial shipment? Most games (exclude 1st party nintendo) afterwards does most of there sales within there first couple of days/weeks.

If the bar for OT is just under 2mil for "falling off a cliff" then what is it for the rest?

2.5mil "sales slowed down"

3mil "did ok"

3.5mil "better than expected"

....

See? Falling off a cliff is games that disappear from the charts, never heard of again.

OT can do 1.5mil lifetime and "falling off a cliff" still would be extremly inaccurate

Wherever the sales go, I hope this will send a message to other Japanese developers that the time for "testing" is over. Original, non-ported exclusive AA third party games like Octopath Traveler can succeed on the Switch. Switch owners should not have to have more than two years of just ports from Japanese third parties. Atlus has Shin Megami Tensei V in the works, Grasshopper has Travis Strikes Again: No More Heroes, Bandai Namco has Yokai Watch 4 and is potentially helping with Metroid Prime 4, and Platinum Games has Bayonetta 3. Heck, even though it was a launch title, Konami was able to find success with Super Bomberman R. Capcom stated that they're pleased with the Mega Man and Street Fighter collections on Switch, so will they start development on more new (non-ported) titles besides the next Ace Attorney?

Or it could lead to nothing much more than the unfortunate status quo...just ports from Capcom besides Ace Attorney, Konami being Konami, Atlus not providing more than SMTV (after releasing 10+ games on 3DS), etc. :(

It dosent even need to be exclusive original games.As long as they release day and date with the Switchg, a game that can run on it, they will find success.if Disgaea 5, Ys VIII, Skyrim and many more that i am certainly forgetting, all years old ports, manage to sell really well on the Switch, something even outselling the original version, then games that release day and date on it will break the banks.

Anything over 2 million would be "exceeded expectations" in my book. Anything over 3 million would be "did amazing."

I agree, but my main point was talking about falling off a cliff. If the game sold lifetime 1.7mil for ex, quickrick would probably consider that falling off a cliff

I'm not defending quickrick's point, in fact I find the prediction that Octopath will fall off a cliff quite silly.

I agree it doesn't have to be original, exclusive games. I guess my point is that the big Japanese third parties should start to get out of that "testing" phase. What are they waiting for? For the Switch to get to 50 million shipments? Until Nintendo is willing to publish every game they develop in the states? Or Nintendo to give out half their bank to third parties? It's just ridiculous that even Capcom (who have provided great support on 3DS and DS and decent support on Wii) is still "testing" the waters on the Switch despite really good results from their ports (not necessarily thanks to them, though). Can Atlus maybe develop a Persona port on Switch? I hate to port beg but if the data shows good to great sales potential on Switch, I would like to see more. I hope to see it in year 3, but who knows..

For most non tent pole Japanese titles like Mario, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy or Pokémon anything above 750k globally is a success, a million exceeds expectations and 2 million is pure Smash hit.

Im well aware that wouldnt be falling off a cliff but this is quickrick we are talking about.

I'm convinced at this point that part of it is for show.