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Forums - Sales Discussion - How Much Will Switch Sell This Holiday In Japan?

p0isonparadise on 14 July 2018
With Smash and Pokemon coming and a possible Yokai Watch release, Switch is going to have a healthy holiday this year. How well will it sell?

Here is past (successful) Nintendo consoles and how well they sold during their second holiday. NES and GBA are missing. 

Game Boy
11/04/90: 45,410
11/11/90: 45,796 (F-1 Race)
11/18/90: 50,376
11/25/90: 55,414
12/02/90: 60,955
12/09/90: 48,483
12/16/90: 57,005
12/23/90: 113,019
12/30/90: 178,084
=654,542

SNES
11/03/91: 63,999 (Super Castlevania IV)
11/10/91: 69,699
11/17/91: 61,227
11/24/91: 139,499 (The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past)
12/01/91: 62,177
12/08/91: 48,831
12/15/91: 86,737
12/22/91: 129,628
12/29/91: 188,638
=850,415

DS
11/06/05: 51,644
 11/13/05: 52,638
11/20/05: 66,817
11/27/05: 148,383 (Animal Crossing Wild World)
12/04/05: 167,556
12/11/05: 299,895 (Mario Kart DS)
12/18/05: 398,435
 12/25/05: 603,201
 01/01/06: 410,218
=2,198,787

Wii
11/04/07: 39,466 (Super Mario Galaxy)
11/11/07: 34,912
11/18/07: 35,757
11/25/07: 50,884
12/02/07: 73,174 (Wii Fit)
12/09/07: 112,979
12/16/07: 169,956
12/23/07: 249,447
12/30/07: 157,733
=924,308

3DS
11/04/12: 87,466
11/11/12: 178,637 (Animal Crossing New Leaf)
11/18/12: 164,358
11/25/12: 162,117 (Pokemon Mystery Dungeon)
12/02/12: 163,123 (Professor Layton)
12/09/12: 213,146 (Paper Mario)
12/16/12: 325,820
12/23/12: 422,566
12/30/12: 258,034
=1,975,267

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Slarvax on 15 July 2018

You should also put Switc numbers from last year. I think it was almost or a little over 1 million.
It should do very well, and I think Nintendo might do some deals/bundles (they've been doing some recently in the US and Canada). I'll say like 1.5 to 2 million.



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FarleyMcFirefly on 15 July 2018

I think it could match DS numbers. Or come close. Pokemon, Smash, Yokai Watch, dockless Switch alternative, some killer deals. I think it will be a great holiday for Switch!



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Bofferbrauer2 on 15 July 2018
Slarvax said:
You should also put Switc numbers from last year. I think it was almost or a little over 1 million.
It should do very well, and I think Nintendo might do some deals/bundles (they've been doing some recently in the US and Canada). I'll say like 1.5 to 2 million.

Going quickly over October 29 to December 31, I counted approximately 1.45M, or 1.33M without Mario launch week.

With Smash and Pokemon alone, it will already do better than that.

I think the posted 3DS numbers are possible to equal, the DS numbers are maybe a bit too high. But I won't rule them out right now, preorders are really crazy for Smash and Pokemon will most certainly pick up much more steed over the next weeks. And then there's Super Mario Party (bit early, but can lead to a higher baseline coming into November), Yokai watch 4 and the expected releases for Q4 of things like Arena of Valor and Ark: Survival Evolved (2 games with absolutely massive playerbases) and to a lesser degree, SNK 40th Anniversary collection, Team Sonic Racing and Inazuma Eleven Ares. And that's just the games we know of for the holiday season.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 15 July 2018

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Ulternia on 15 July 2018

The Wii did very poorly. Was it in short supply?

OT: All things considered, I could see the Switch just barely breaking the 2M barrier and coming in to a stone’s throw of the PS4’s total. I believe Pokemon and Yokai Watch will both underperform (for the outrageous standards of the series).



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Miyamotoo on 15 July 2018

I would said more than 1.5m.



PAOerfulone on 15 July 2018

It did roughly 1.3 million last year with trouble meeting stock, Super Mario Odyssey launching just before that first week of November and the only notable first party title in that November/December window was Xenoblade Chronicles 2.

With their lineup of Pokemon and Smash Bros., plus being able to meet demand, I think it would be colossally disappointing if the best it can do this year is match last year's total. It should beat last year very comfortably. I'm expecting around 1.6-1.8 million.



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Jranation on 15 July 2018

What was the Switch last year?

Nvm just saw the post

I would say 1.8mil 



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Bofferbrauer2 on 15 July 2018
Ulternia said:
The Wii did very poorly. Was it in short supply?

OT: All things considered, I could see the Switch just barely breaking the 2M barrier and coming in to a stone’s throw of the PS4’s total. I believe Pokemon and Yokai Watch will both underperform (for the outrageous standards of the series).

Wii didn't too well in Japan, first year was it's best and declined fast afterwards. It only sold 12.77M units in Japan, with 3.7M in 2007, it's best year (and 4.6M if you include the launch in December 2006, so yeah, after just 13 Month the Wii already sold almost 40% of it's total volume in Japan). Switch is expected to exceed that this year despite the decline in gaming overall in Japan. However, the Wii had a higher baseline throughout the year compared to the Switch

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 15 July 2018

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

p0isonparadise on 15 July 2018

This is how much Switch sold last year.

11/05/17: 65,734
11/12/17: 80,466
11/19/17: 87,845
11/26/17: 142,734
12/03/17: 128,945 (Xenoblade)
12/10/17: 169,845
12/17/17: 216,488
12/24/17: 271,347
12/31/17: 136,983
=1,300,387