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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Animal Crossing for Switch won't release before 2020

well... i didn't think so. but by reading your ops, you convinced me.

i think you are right. 2020 + NewNew Super Mario Bros!



Switch!!!

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jonathanalis said:
Well, it not seems a kind of game they will announce 1 year or more before it's release.
I think it will appear on a direct 3 to 6 months before the release.
Anyway, we have only 1 10+million seller for 2019. We need other to keep the momentum of switch after the 20 million. So either Mario 2d either AC is a given on 2019.

Yeah, I've made this observation before - with 3DS, Nintendo tended to aim for one or two titles that would sell ~10 million or more for each year the system was on the market: 

2011: Mario Kart 7 (17.04 m), Super Mario 3D Land (11.96 m)
2012: New Super Mario Bros 2 (12.61 m) [Animal Crossing, Japan-only)
2013: Animal Crossing: New Leaf (11.69 m), Pokemon X&Y (16.29 m)
2014: Pokemon OR/AS (14.06 m) [Super Smash Bros 4 - 9.2 m]
2015: None
2016: Pokemon Sun/Moon (16.1 m)
2017: [Pokemon US/UM 7.5 m]

We can already see that Switch's strong start is down to Nintendo have multiple major hits out in a single year - Mario Odyssey is already passed 10 million (10.4 m), Mario Kart 8 DX (9.2m) and Zelda (8.48m on Switch, 1.5m on Wii U) are guaranteed to join it, and Splatoon 2 could potentially hit the 10 million mark too (6m as of March). This year has Smash Bros Ultimate and Pokemon Let's Go as the mega-hits. It's not out of the question Nintendo will aim to have three huge sellers out next year.

2019 has Pokemon Generation 8 confirmed, so I'd expect at least one more huge title to join it - and my bet would be on Animal Crossing over New Super Mario Bros (is there room for the 'New' series with Mario Maker around?). None of the titles the OP mentioned are big sellers outside of Pokemon - even if they're very successful by the normal standards of their respective franchises; Yoshi, Metroid and Fire Emblem aren't going to sell more than the 2-3 million range (much like Kirby, Mario Tennis etc this year, with Super Mario Party and Labo potential wild-cards). There will be one or two more big-hitters to join Pokemon next year, or Nintendo won't be able to maintain sales of 20 million or more per year.

Last edited by Asriel - on 13 July 2018

Asriel said:
jonathanalis said:
Well, it not seems a kind of game they will announce 1 year or more before it's release.
I think it will appear on a direct 3 to 6 months before the release.
Anyway, we have only 1 10+million seller for 2019. We need other to keep the momentum of switch after the 20 million. So either Mario 2d either AC is a given on 2019.

Yeah, I've made this observation before - with 3DS, Nintendo tended to aim for one or two titles that would sell ~10 million or more for each year the system was on the market: 

2011: Mario Kart 7 (17.04 m), Super Mario 3D Land (11.96 m)
2012: New Super Mario Bros 2 (12.61 m) [Animal Crossing, Japan-only)
2013: Animal Crossing: New Leaf (11.69 m), Pokemon X&Y (16.29 m)
2014: Pokemon OR/AS (14.06 m) [Super Smash Bros 4 - 9.2 m]
2015: None
2016: Pokemon Sun/Moon (16.1 m)
2017: [Pokemon US/UM 7.5 m]

We can already see that Switch's strong start is down to Nintendo have multiple major hits out in a single year - Mario Odyssey is already passed 10 million (10.4 m), Mario Kart 8 DX (9.2m) and Zelda (8.48m on Switch, 1.5m on Wii U) are guaranteed to join it, and Splatoon 2 could potentially hit the 10 million mark too (6m as of March). This year has Smash Bros Ultimate and Pokemon Let's Go as the mega-hits. It's not out of the question Nintendo will aim to have three huge sellers out next year.

2019 has Pokemon Generation 8 confirmed, so I'd expect at least one more huge title to join it - and my bet would be on Animal Crossing over New Super Mario Bros (is there room for the 'New' series with Mario Maker around?). None of the titles the OP mentioned are big sellers outside of Pokemon - even if they're very successful by the normal standards of their respective franchises; Yoshi, Metroid and Fire Emblem aren't going to sell more than the 2-3 million range (much like Kirby, Mario Tennis etc this year, with Super Mario Party and Labo potential wild-cards). There will be one or two more big-hitters to join Pokemon next year, or Nintendo won't be able to maintain sales of 20 million or more per year.

I know it sounds crazy, but I have a feeling Star Fox Racing might be a bigger deal than we think, Nintendo's arcade racers sell well, rumors say the game looks really good and if it's a quality title I think Nintendo might put a Mario Kart 8-like level of advertisement behind it, in the end this is their attempt to make Star Fox more popular, they might as well go all in and try making it one of their bigger IPs, I don't know if it can do 10M, but I think it can achieve 7-8M



jonathanalis said:
Well, it not seems a kind of game they will announce 1 year or more before it's release.
I think it will appear on a direct 3 to 6 months before the release.
Anyway, we have only 1 10+million seller for 2019. We need other to keep the momentum of switch after the 20 million. So either Mario 2d either AC is a given on 2019.

Exactly this^^



Asriel said:
jonathanalis said:
Well, it not seems a kind of game they will announce 1 year or more before it's release.
I think it will appear on a direct 3 to 6 months before the release.
Anyway, we have only 1 10+million seller for 2019. We need other to keep the momentum of switch after the 20 million. So either Mario 2d either AC is a given on 2019.

Yeah, I've made this observation before - with 3DS, Nintendo tended to aim for one or two titles that would sell ~10 million or more for each year the system was on the market: 

2011: Mario Kart 7 (17.04 m), Super Mario 3D Land (11.96 m)
2012: New Super Mario Bros 2 (12.61 m) [Animal Crossing, Japan-only)
2013: Animal Crossing: New Leaf (11.69 m), Pokemon X&Y (16.29 m)
2014: Pokemon OR/AS (14.06 m) [Super Smash Bros 4 - 9.2 m]
2015: None
2016: Pokemon Sun/Moon (16.1 m)
2017: [Pokemon US/UM 7.5 m]

We can already see that Switch's strong start is down to Nintendo have multiple major hits out in a single year - Mario Odyssey is already passed 10 million (10.4 m), Mario Kart 8 DX (9.2m) and Zelda (8.48m on Switch, 1.5m on Wii U) are guaranteed to join it, and Splatoon 2 could potentially hit the 10 million mark too (6m as of March). This year has Smash Bros Ultimate and Pokemon Let's Go as the mega-hits. It's not out of the question Nintendo will aim to have three huge sellers out next year.

2019 has Pokemon Generation 8 confirmed, so I'd expect at least one more huge title to join it - and my bet would be on Animal Crossing over New Super Mario Bros (is there room for the 'New' series with Mario Maker around?). None of the titles the OP mentioned are big sellers outside of Pokemon - even if they're very successful by the normal standards of their respective franchises; Yoshi, Metroid and Fire Emblem aren't going to sell more than the 2-3 million range (much like Kirby, Mario Tennis etc this year, with Super Mario Party and Labo potential wild-cards). There will be one or two more big-hitters to join Pokemon next year, or Nintendo won't be able to maintain sales of 20 million or more per year.

What about Fire Emblem? While it's not 10M material (Awakening is the bestselling one right now with somewhat over 2M, 100k in front of Fates), it has the potential to become the bestselling one in the series (which is really starting to become a trend on the Switch)



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Asriel said:

Yeah, I've made this observation before - with 3DS, Nintendo tended to aim for one or two titles that would sell ~10 million or more for each year the system was on the market: 

2011: Mario Kart 7 (17.04 m), Super Mario 3D Land (11.96 m)
2012: New Super Mario Bros 2 (12.61 m) [Animal Crossing, Japan-only)
2013: Animal Crossing: New Leaf (11.69 m), Pokemon X&Y (16.29 m)
2014: Pokemon OR/AS (14.06 m) [Super Smash Bros 4 - 9.2 m]
2015: None
2016: Pokemon Sun/Moon (16.1 m)
2017: [Pokemon US/UM 7.5 m]

We can already see that Switch's strong start is down to Nintendo have multiple major hits out in a single year - Mario Odyssey is already passed 10 million (10.4 m), Mario Kart 8 DX (9.2m) and Zelda (8.48m on Switch, 1.5m on Wii U) are guaranteed to join it, and Splatoon 2 could potentially hit the 10 million mark too (6m as of March). This year has Smash Bros Ultimate and Pokemon Let's Go as the mega-hits. It's not out of the question Nintendo will aim to have three huge sellers out next year.

2019 has Pokemon Generation 8 confirmed, so I'd expect at least one more huge title to join it - and my bet would be on Animal Crossing over New Super Mario Bros (is there room for the 'New' series with Mario Maker around?). None of the titles the OP mentioned are big sellers outside of Pokemon - even if they're very successful by the normal standards of their respective franchises; Yoshi, Metroid and Fire Emblem aren't going to sell more than the 2-3 million range (much like Kirby, Mario Tennis etc this year, with Super Mario Party and Labo potential wild-cards). There will be one or two more big-hitters to join Pokemon next year, or Nintendo won't be able to maintain sales of 20 million or more per year.

What about Fire Emblem? While it's not 10M material (Awakening is the bestselling one right now with somewhat over 2M, 100k in front of Fates), it has the potential to become the bestselling one in the series (which is really starting to become a trend on the Switch)

I'd have said ~5M would be optimistic for Fire Emblem but who knows. Xenoblade 2 blew my expectations out the water, and Octopath is looking very similar.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Asriel said:

Yeah, I've made this observation before - with 3DS, Nintendo tended to aim for one or two titles that would sell ~10 million or more for each year the system was on the market: 

2011: Mario Kart 7 (17.04 m), Super Mario 3D Land (11.96 m)
2012: New Super Mario Bros 2 (12.61 m) [Animal Crossing, Japan-only)
2013: Animal Crossing: New Leaf (11.69 m), Pokemon X&Y (16.29 m)
2014: Pokemon OR/AS (14.06 m) [Super Smash Bros 4 - 9.2 m]
2015: None
2016: Pokemon Sun/Moon (16.1 m)
2017: [Pokemon US/UM 7.5 m]

We can alreadWhiy see that Switch's strong start is down to Nintendo have multiple major hits out in a single year - Mario Odyssey is already passed 10 million (10.4 m), Mario Kart 8 DX (9.2m) and Zelda (8.48m on Switch, 1.5m on Wii U) are guaranteed to join it, and Splatoon 2 could potentially hit the 10 million mark too (6m as of March). This year has Smash Bros Ultimate and Pokemon Let's Go as the mega-hits. It's not out of the question Nintendo will aim to have three huge sellers out next year.

2019 has Pokemon Generation 8 confirmed, so I'd expect at least one more huge title to join it - and my bet would be on Animal Crossing over New Super Mario Bros (is there room for the 'New' series with Mario Maker around?). None of the titles the OP mentioned are big sellers outside of Pokemon - even if they're very successful by the normal standards of their respective franchises; Yoshi, Metroid and Fire Emblem aren't going to sell more than the 2-3 million range (much like Kirby, Mario Tennis etc this year, with Super Mario Party and Labo potential wild-cards). There will be one or two more big-hitters to join Pokemon next year, or Nintendo won't be able to maintain sales of 20 million or more per year.

What about Fire Emblem? While it's not 10M material (Awakening is the bestselling one right now with somewhat over 2M, 100k in front of Fates), it has the potential to become the bestselling one in the series (which is really starting to become a trend on the Switch)

While I really hope Fire Emblem is a big hit, even breakout sales for the series would see it land somewhere in the 2-5 million range. For a strategy RPG, I don't see it doing more than 3 million - which would be a great result for the series. It's absolutely not a mega-hit on the level of Nintendo's biggest series, though, so I definitely wouldn't count it. We're looking for games Nintendo are banking on selling 10 million copies or more (like Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Mario, Smash); not titles that *might* sell multiple millions, when thinking about what other huge hitters Nintendo will bring to market.



Luke888 said:
Asriel said:

Yeah, I've made this observation before - with 3DS, Nintendo tended to aim for one or two titles that would sell ~10 million or more for each year the system was on the market: 

2011: Mario Kart 7 (17.04 m), Super Mario 3D Land (11.96 m)
2012: New Super Mario Bros 2 (12.61 m) [Animal Crossing, Japan-only)
2013: Animal Crossing: New Leaf (11.69 m), Pokemon X&Y (16.29 m)
2014: Pokemon OR/AS (14.06 m) [Super Smash Bros 4 - 9.2 m]
2015: None
2016: Pokemon Sun/Moon (16.1 m)
2017: [Pokemon US/UM 7.5 m]

We can already see that Switch's strong start is down to Nintendo have multiple major hits out in a single year - Mario Odyssey is already passed 10 million (10.4 m), Mario Kart 8 DX (9.2m) and Zelda (8.48m on Switch, 1.5m on Wii U) are guaranteed to join it, and Splatoon 2 could potentially hit the 10 million mark too (6m as of March). This year has Smash Bros Ultimate and Pokemon Let's Go as the mega-hits. It's not out of the question Nintendo will aim to have three huge sellers out next year.

2019 has Pokemon Generation 8 confirmed, so I'd expect at least one more huge title to join it - and my bet would be on Animal Crossing over New Super Mario Bros (is there room for the 'New' series with Mario Maker around?). None of the titles the OP mentioned are big sellers outside of Pokemon - even if they're very successful by the normal standards of their respective franchises; Yoshi, Metroid and Fire Emblem aren't going to sell more than the 2-3 million range (much like Kirby, Mario Tennis etc this year, with Super Mario Party and Labo potential wild-cards). There will be one or two more big-hitters to join Pokemon next year, or Nintendo won't be able to maintain sales of 20 million or more per year.

I know it sounds crazy, but I have a feeling Star Fox Racing might be a bigger deal than we think, Nintendo's arcade racers sell well, rumors say the game looks really good and if it's a quality title I think Nintendo might put a Mario Kart 8-like level of advertisement behind it, in the end this is their attempt to make Star Fox more popular, they might as well go all in and try making it one of their bigger IPs, I don't know if it can do 10M, but I think it can achieve 7-8M

While I think Star Fox Grand Prix could do well, I struggle to see it becoming a Kart-style hit. We're not looking for games that *might* do well; we're looking for bankable, tried and tested selling power, which Animal Crossing has, when thinking about 10 million plus sellers.

Look at the last two years on Switch. Nintendo threw out curve-ball titles like 1-2 Switch, Arms and Labo, which so far haven't done anything beyond a couple of million copies, and haven't become break-out hits. Along side those titles, Nintendo made sure they had their tried and tested, bankable hits coming out. I expect next year to be the same - two or even three guaranteed hits (Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario Maker/Bros), plus a series of small and middle-tier  games which might become bigger sellers, but which are likely going to be in somewhere in the 1-5 million range, depending on the game: Star Fox Grand Prix, Fire Emblem, Metroid etc.



AC NL had great legs in Japan therefore Nintendo should not wait longer than 2019 to release it.



Asriel said:
Luke888 said:

I know it sounds crazy, but I have a feeling Star Fox Racing might be a bigger deal than we think, Nintendo's arcade racers sell well, rumors say the game looks really good and if it's a quality title I think Nintendo might put a Mario Kart 8-like level of advertisement behind it, in the end this is their attempt to make Star Fox more popular, they might as well go all in and try making it one of their bigger IPs, I don't know if it can do 10M, but I think it can achieve 7-8M

While I think Star Fox Grand Prix could do well, I struggle to see it becoming a Kart-style hit. We're not looking for games that *might* do well; we're looking for bankable, tried and tested selling power, which Animal Crossing has, when thinking about 10 million plus sellers.

Look at the last two years on Switch. Nintendo threw out curve-ball titles like 1-2 Switch, Arms and Labo, which so far haven't done anything beyond a couple of million copies, and haven't become break-out hits. Along side those titles, Nintendo made sure they had their tried and tested, bankable hits coming out. I expect next year to be the same - two or even three guaranteed hits (Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario Maker/Bros), plus a series of small and middle-tier  games which might become bigger sellers, but which are likely going to be in somewhere in the 1-5 million range, depending on the game: Star Fox Grand Prix, Fire Emblem, Metroid etc.

That's only because they didn't have a game with the potential to become a smash hit though, ARMS is a great game but they probably knew the time needed between each new character's release wouldn't be enough to grip a good fanbase as opposed to Splatoon which released updates weekly, I think starting next year they'll be pushing games like Fire Emblem Three Houses to make a much bigger deal about them than they are currently, I say a Luigi's Mansion is more likely for next year than Animal Crossing and it definitely has the potential to be a 10M seller with some marketing push