Luke888 said:
Asriel said:
Yeah, I've made this observation before - with 3DS, Nintendo tended to aim for one or two titles that would sell ~10 million or more for each year the system was on the market:
2011: Mario Kart 7 (17.04 m), Super Mario 3D Land (11.96 m)
2012: New Super Mario Bros 2 (12.61 m) [Animal Crossing, Japan-only)
2013: Animal Crossing: New Leaf (11.69 m), Pokemon X&Y (16.29 m)
2014: Pokemon OR/AS (14.06 m) [Super Smash Bros 4 - 9.2 m]
2015: None
2016: Pokemon Sun/Moon (16.1 m)
2017: [Pokemon US/UM 7.5 m]
We can already see that Switch's strong start is down to Nintendo have multiple major hits out in a single year - Mario Odyssey is already passed 10 million (10.4 m), Mario Kart 8 DX (9.2m) and Zelda (8.48m on Switch, 1.5m on Wii U) are guaranteed to join it, and Splatoon 2 could potentially hit the 10 million mark too (6m as of March). This year has Smash Bros Ultimate and Pokemon Let's Go as the mega-hits. It's not out of the question Nintendo will aim to have three huge sellers out next year.
2019 has Pokemon Generation 8 confirmed, so I'd expect at least one more huge title to join it - and my bet would be on Animal Crossing over New Super Mario Bros (is there room for the 'New' series with Mario Maker around?). None of the titles the OP mentioned are big sellers outside of Pokemon - even if they're very successful by the normal standards of their respective franchises; Yoshi, Metroid and Fire Emblem aren't going to sell more than the 2-3 million range (much like Kirby, Mario Tennis etc this year, with Super Mario Party and Labo potential wild-cards). There will be one or two more big-hitters to join Pokemon next year, or Nintendo won't be able to maintain sales of 20 million or more per year.
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I know it sounds crazy, but I have a feeling Star Fox Racing might be a bigger deal than we think, Nintendo's arcade racers sell well, rumors say the game looks really good and if it's a quality title I think Nintendo might put a Mario Kart 8-like level of advertisement behind it, in the end this is their attempt to make Star Fox more popular, they might as well go all in and try making it one of their bigger IPs, I don't know if it can do 10M, but I think it can achieve 7-8M
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While I think Star Fox Grand Prix could do well, I struggle to see it becoming a Kart-style hit. We're not looking for games that *might* do well; we're looking for bankable, tried and tested selling power, which Animal Crossing has, when thinking about 10 million plus sellers.
Look at the last two years on Switch. Nintendo threw out curve-ball titles like 1-2 Switch, Arms and Labo, which so far haven't done anything beyond a couple of million copies, and haven't become break-out hits. Along side those titles, Nintendo made sure they had their tried and tested, bankable hits coming out. I expect next year to be the same - two or even three guaranteed hits (Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario Maker/Bros), plus a series of small and middle-tier games which might become bigger sellers, but which are likely going to be in somewhere in the 1-5 million range, depending on the game: Star Fox Grand Prix, Fire Emblem, Metroid etc.
