| jonathanalis said: Well, it not seems a kind of game they will announce 1 year or more before it's release. I think it will appear on a direct 3 to 6 months before the release. Anyway, we have only 1 10+million seller for 2019. We need other to keep the momentum of switch after the 20 million. So either Mario 2d either AC is a given on 2019. |
Yeah, I've made this observation before - with 3DS, Nintendo tended to aim for one or two titles that would sell ~10 million or more for each year the system was on the market:
2011: Mario Kart 7 (17.04 m), Super Mario 3D Land (11.96 m)
2012: New Super Mario Bros 2 (12.61 m) [Animal Crossing, Japan-only)
2013: Animal Crossing: New Leaf (11.69 m), Pokemon X&Y (16.29 m)
2014: Pokemon OR/AS (14.06 m) [Super Smash Bros 4 - 9.2 m]
2015: None
2016: Pokemon Sun/Moon (16.1 m)
2017: [Pokemon US/UM 7.5 m]
We can already see that Switch's strong start is down to Nintendo have multiple major hits out in a single year - Mario Odyssey is already passed 10 million (10.4 m), Mario Kart 8 DX (9.2m) and Zelda (8.48m on Switch, 1.5m on Wii U) are guaranteed to join it, and Splatoon 2 could potentially hit the 10 million mark too (6m as of March). This year has Smash Bros Ultimate and Pokemon Let's Go as the mega-hits. It's not out of the question Nintendo will aim to have three huge sellers out next year.
2019 has Pokemon Generation 8 confirmed, so I'd expect at least one more huge title to join it - and my bet would be on Animal Crossing over New Super Mario Bros (is there room for the 'New' series with Mario Maker around?). None of the titles the OP mentioned are big sellers outside of Pokemon - even if they're very successful by the normal standards of their respective franchises; Yoshi, Metroid and Fire Emblem aren't going to sell more than the 2-3 million range (much like Kirby, Mario Tennis etc this year, with Super Mario Party and Labo potential wild-cards). There will be one or two more big-hitters to join Pokemon next year, or Nintendo won't be able to maintain sales of 20 million or more per year.
Last edited by Asriel - on 13 July 2018
