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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 25) Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - June 18 - June 24, 2018

Shikamo on 27 June 2018

So much hate here.. I think we can argue more peacefully here :/



     


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Farsala on 27 June 2018
OTBWY said:
Farsala said:

It would be pretty unfair either way due to differing release dates so legs will be variable. MH generations still plays like a MH so I don't think it is a spinoff unless MHW is a spinoff too.

MH4 shipped 3.9m in Japan in over 3 months including holiday season, its legs were only shipped 200k in the next 3 months. Similar to MHW legs.

MH4G sold in ~3 months

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate #  {2014.10.11} (¥6.264) 2.345.260 / 2.345.260

MH4G legs in an entire year were

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate # (Capcom) {2014.10.11} (¥5.800) - 212.215 / 2.557.475

So again same exact story. MHW legs are pretty much the exact same as other MH releases, if not better.

 

But then again, what games released in the same timeframe? You see, it is difficult to compare this to other releases. For one, I believed this (MHW) would have sold better no matter what and second, not having other big releases (big releases that would typically sell in Japan). A lot of things factor in. Prices for example (which could disprove my point). My conclusion was that it would continue selling relatively higher than it did, over a longer period. I do agree with the first sentence.

Well when we can argue yet another factor for example attach ratio, it would seem that MHW has the biggest disadvantage. MHW has about a 40% attach ratio, compared to most MH's only doing about 10-20% attach ratio. Saturation point is at its highest for PS4 MH fans. But I have already argued for those things multiple times before. My point is the legs are quite standard, and one shouldn't expect too much more from MHW.



zorg1000 on 27 June 2018
NoCtiS_NoX said:
NintendoPie said:

Switch @ 49k compared to 22k same week LY. A better stock situation and the collection of releases certainly increased the baseline. Good show. And with all the arguing in this thread about MHW's massive effect on the PS4's, a look should be taken at this HW LY to now comp. The baseline should be higher, but MHW just had a peak effect. I'm not going to argue if MHW did very well, because it did, but it definitely didn't increase the longevity of PS4's selling based on this comp alone.

For longevity what do you mean? 
My question are: what will be the sales of PS4 without MHW this year? I am willng to bet it will not be 20K this week. 
and why would you think it should be higher after 5 months MHW was released?

If i recall, a few months ago a handful of people were saying MHW would increase the baseline of PS4 throughout the rest of the year and overall sales this year would be considerably up YoY which is the opposite of what some of them are saying now.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

NoCtiS_NoX on 27 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
NoCtiS_NoX said:

For longevity what do you mean? 
My question are: what will be the sales of PS4 without MHW this year? I am willng to bet it will not be 20K this week. 
and why would you think it should be higher after 5 months MHW was released?

If i recall, a few months ago a handful of people were saying MHW would increase the baseline of PS4 throughout the rest of the year and overall sales this year would be considerably up YoY which is the opposite of what some of them are saying now.

Then they don't know what there talking about and setting themselves for a disappointment.



zorg1000 on 27 June 2018
NoCtiS_NoX said:
zorg1000 said:

If i recall, a few months ago a handful of people were saying MHW would increase the baseline of PS4 throughout the rest of the year and overall sales this year would be considerably up YoY which is the opposite of what some of them are saying now.

Then they don't know what there talking about and setting themselves for a disappointment.

Agreed and thats what i tried saying back then, Q1 would be great but Q2-4 would likely return to previous baseline or even decline (Q3 had DQXI last year) resulting in overall sales being relatively the same as 2016/2017.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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PwerlvlAmy on 27 June 2018

All right, a few people have gotten a little off track here. Please refrain for labeling or calling people trolls or fanboys in any sort of way. Thanks!



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Farsala on 27 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
NoCtiS_NoX said:

For longevity what do you mean? 
My question are: what will be the sales of PS4 without MHW this year? I am willng to bet it will not be 20K this week. 
and why would you think it should be higher after 5 months MHW was released?

If i recall, a few months ago a handful of people were saying MHW would increase the baseline of PS4 throughout the rest of the year and overall sales this year would be considerably up YoY which is the opposite of what some of them are saying now.

Is the baseline not up though? Maybe not up YoY, but still higher than what it would be without it.



zorg1000 on 27 June 2018
Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

If i recall, a few months ago a handful of people were saying MHW would increase the baseline of PS4 throughout the rest of the year and overall sales this year would be considerably up YoY which is the opposite of what some of them are saying now.

Is the baseline not up though? Maybe not up YoY, but still higher than what it would be without it.

Thats impossible to know but they were talking about YOY in those threads, some even said as high as 2.6 million for the year which would be +800k from last year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Farsala on 27 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

Is the baseline not up though? Maybe not up YoY, but still higher than what it would be without it.

Thats impossible to know but they were talking about YOY in those threads, some even said as high as 2.6 million for the year which would be +800k from last year.

It is, but considering MHW is basically the only major release on PS4 so far this year, I think it has.

While those predictions are of course ridiculous, maybe they were being optimistic with releases, pricecuts, and HW legs.

I didn't predict, but I was hoping KH3 would have made it for 2018 and give a small boost, and I am always hoping for pricecuts :P.



Megiddo on 27 June 2018
Jranation said:
Megiddo said:

Here is the week 25 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD AWN (Change)
PS4 20,295 -17,177 971,052 38,109 (+637)
Switch 48,944 -54,004 1,166,378 104,948 (+2000)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

Switch basically flat with Minecraft and Mario Tennis releasing. PS4 drops 20% due to poor New Gundam Breaker reception and end of the Days of Play sale.

Also I find it completely hilarious over on the era MC thread how they're all hyping FIFA 18 on Switch appearing at the bottom of the list yet completely miss Winning Eleven on PS4 ranking higher. Nintendo fanboys, please if you're going to circlejerk about one football game's success to the World Cup (everyone bought FIFA 18 on Switch) then at least acknowledge the football game that sold better.

Which MC thread?

This one:

https://www.resetera.com/posts/9756594/

Look at the people who mention FIFA but do not mention Winning Eleven/PES, lol.