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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 25) Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - June 18 - June 24, 2018

zorg1000 said:
NoCtiS_NoX said:

For longevity what do you mean? 
My question are: what will be the sales of PS4 without MHW this year? I am willng to bet it will not be 20K this week. 
and why would you think it should be higher after 5 months MHW was released?

If i recall, a few months ago a handful of people were saying MHW would increase the baseline of PS4 throughout the rest of the year and overall sales this year would be considerably up YoY which is the opposite of what some of them are saying now.

Is the baseline not up though? Maybe not up YoY, but still higher than what it would be without it.



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Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

If i recall, a few months ago a handful of people were saying MHW would increase the baseline of PS4 throughout the rest of the year and overall sales this year would be considerably up YoY which is the opposite of what some of them are saying now.

Is the baseline not up though? Maybe not up YoY, but still higher than what it would be without it.

Thats impossible to know but they were talking about YOY in those threads, some even said as high as 2.6 million for the year which would be +800k from last year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

Is the baseline not up though? Maybe not up YoY, but still higher than what it would be without it.

Thats impossible to know but they were talking about YOY in those threads, some even said as high as 2.6 million for the year which would be +800k from last year.

It is, but considering MHW is basically the only major release on PS4 so far this year, I think it has.

While those predictions are of course ridiculous, maybe they were being optimistic with releases, pricecuts, and HW legs.

I didn't predict, but I was hoping KH3 would have made it for 2018 and give a small boost, and I am always hoping for pricecuts :P.



Jranation said:
Megiddo said:

Here is the week 25 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD AWN (Change)
PS4 20,295 -17,177 971,052 38,109 (+637)
Switch 48,944 -54,004 1,166,378 104,948 (+2000)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

Switch basically flat with Minecraft and Mario Tennis releasing. PS4 drops 20% due to poor New Gundam Breaker reception and end of the Days of Play sale.

Also I find it completely hilarious over on the era MC thread how they're all hyping FIFA 18 on Switch appearing at the bottom of the list yet completely miss Winning Eleven on PS4 ranking higher. Nintendo fanboys, please if you're going to circlejerk about one football game's success to the World Cup (everyone bought FIFA 18 on Switch) then at least acknowledge the football game that sold better.

Which MC thread?

This one:

https://www.resetera.com/posts/9756594/

Look at the people who mention FIFA but do not mention Winning Eleven/PES, lol.



Farsala said:
OTBWY said:

But then again, what games released in the same timeframe? You see, it is difficult to compare this to other releases. For one, I believed this (MHW) would have sold better no matter what and second, not having other big releases (big releases that would typically sell in Japan). A lot of things factor in. Prices for example (which could disprove my point). My conclusion was that it would continue selling relatively higher than it did, over a longer period. I do agree with the first sentence.

Well when we can argue yet another factor for example attach ratio, it would seem that MHW has the biggest disadvantage. MHW has about a 40% attach ratio, compared to most MH's only doing about 10-20% attach ratio. Saturation point is at its highest for PS4 MH fans. But I have already argued for those things multiple times before. My point is the legs are quite standard, and one shouldn't expect too much more from MHW.

Well two things before you bring in attach ratio, 1: it still depends on what titles were released with it at that time (on the 3DS in the same timeframe for example) and 2: look at the titles released in Japan, which sold the most and continue to sell the most. The 3DS for example had together with Monster Hunter, many games like Pokemon, Smash, Yokai watch on it released which sold big numbers over a pretty long stretch. Those factors can be taken into account. This MHW had, in my opinion, a clear and open way to have great legs in Japan.



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Acevil said:
OTBWY said:
So yeah the baseline for Switch is between 45-50k for Switch. Mario Tennis had a nice opening for what it is. I am surprised that New Gundam Breaker sold that much actually, lots of backlash from Japanese gamers who are fans of the franchise. Guess that's what happens when you switch to a new engine/studio. The PS4 is at a base 20k, which was expected.

I always found breaker to not be as good as the lets say versus series, did the new engine really make it that much worse?

New Gundam Breaker is the worst Gundam game in over a decade. The very worst since Crossfire in 2006. Once people started playing it, the game got so much hate. Stores are flooded with trade-ins to the point where they don't even give you 1/3 of the value for it. Kinda glad as games this bad shouldn't be rewarded.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

OTBWY said:
Farsala said:

Well when we can argue yet another factor for example attach ratio, it would seem that MHW has the biggest disadvantage. MHW has about a 40% attach ratio, compared to most MH's only doing about 10-20% attach ratio. Saturation point is at its highest for PS4 MH fans. But I have already argued for those things multiple times before. My point is the legs are quite standard, and one shouldn't expect too much more from MHW.

Well two things before you bring in attach ratio, 1: it still depends on what titles were released with it at that time (on the 3DS in the same timeframe for example) and 2: look at the titles released in Japan, which sold the most and continue to sell the most. The 3DS for example had together with Monster Hunter, many games like Pokemon, Smash, Yokai watch on it released which sold big numbers over a pretty long stretch. Those factors can be taken into account. This MHW had, in my opinion, a clear and open way to have great legs in Japan.

On the contrary I think that is an advantage for 3DS games. Pokemon, Smash, Yokai, etc. will push HW and people don't just buy one game, more like 5-10 games eventually. So MH on 3DS got help from other SW. While right now PS4 is in a dead zone software wise after a decent string of releases.

Theoretically, if MHW released in Jan, then in March we have FFXVI, and in June DQXII then I think MHW would have better sales.



Megiddo said:
Jranation said:

Which MC thread?

This one:

https://www.resetera.com/posts/9756594/

Look at the people who mention FIFA but do not mention Winning Eleven/PES, lol.

lol, it is kinda funny, but not really worth arguing about. Maybe those people don't realize that Winning Eleven is Pro Evo.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

If i recall, a few months ago a handful of people were saying MHW would increase the baseline of PS4 throughout the rest of the year and overall sales this year would be considerably up YoY which is the opposite of what some of them are saying now.

Is the baseline not up though? Maybe not up YoY, but still higher than what it would be without it.

Well considering that MHW is selling less than 2k/week, i would say its doing next to nothing for hardware at the moment.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Was hoping +50k this week for Switch, but alas. Don't think Octopath is gonna make anymore of a difference. Do we have a date for YW4 yet? Probably the only chance of Switch hardware getting a significant boost before Pokemon.

EDIT: Mario Tennis Open on 3DS increased hardware sales from 43k the previous week to 55k, just to add further context to my dissatisfaction.

Last edited by Lonely_Dolphin - on 27 June 2018