I think we'll see at least three models from or near launch. A "standard" model, of course, with all features people expect and at a reasonable price. Then an "X" model, that comes in at a few hundred dollars more. Microsoft loves the "plays best on Xbox" line and they're not going to give that up. Their premium model will be the most powerful console on the market no matter what, and will be presented as the flagship.
At the lowest price point, I think we'll see a "digital" box. No physical media device. Perhaps we'll even get a lot more "Cloud" hype and it will be streaming only--not sure about that part, though.
Honestly, I think Microsoft is in good shape. They are NOT going to fubar the launch this time. I can't even believe it happened last time, especially fielding a device that was effectively weaker than the PS4. If it happens again then I think we'd see some heads roll. The thing with Microsoft is that they understand that their consumer base doesn't really give a damn about all the stuff we talk about on forums or in the gaming media. They care about games like Madden, CoD, and blockbuster multiplayer titles. They really just need to keep that (massive) demographic happy and they'll be fine.