I actually feel this year they will have a very strong showing and a few surprises.

Being real I bet MS fans are extremely anxious right now. I am and I don't even own an Xbox lol.

Regaining popularity takes time.  Whatever MS shows, if good, will likely be a start to changing those perceptions not fixing them.  Xbox name could be restored in about a year or 2 depending on what steps are made.  Definitely E3 could provide a long advance toward that if it is surprising enough.

If their show is good and they have good third party and show that they are committed to first parry it's a hood step to regaining consumer confidence and could help them next gen.

No, because we're very late into this generation. We will likely hear more rumors and leaks of the next generation of consoles next year, and there are likely a lot of developers who are preparing for the next gen. That's why Sony's E3 is mostly focused on Ghost of Tsushima, Spider-Man, Death Stranding, and TLOU Part II. For Microsoft, they should just focus on putting a solid show, maintain consumer goodwill, and carry that over to next gen.

yea I feel they'll come out guns blazing and tbh they kinda have to

I don't think they will manage to recover the second place this gen, but the main critizism people have over the XOne is the lack of exclusives. It might be late but they could still announce stuff to make the console more relevant.

To quote Mooch "thats not a me problem, thats a you problem"

All of those seems like their own made problems though?

Too many multiplats = make more exclusives.
Too many cancelled games = dont cancell so many games.
Games already out on other platforms = get them day & date instead.
Halo,gears,forza no surprise = make something new instead.

This has basically been a thing for them throughout this gen. It's basically "PS3 has no games", but multiple listings. 

Will a good presentation change their fortunes this generation? Absolutely not. Can they still have a good conference that will benefit them in the longer term? Absolutely. Despite how unsurprising they've become, each of their first party staples are still big games poised for new entries, perhaps all revealed today. A return to form for Fable, other classic IP, or new IP could go a fair way to repairing some image. Hosting footage/marketing deals for hotly anticipated games like Cyberpunk won't hurt, either. Guess we'll see in a couple hours.