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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

brandon1546 on 02 June 2018
nanarchy said:
brandon1546 said:

If you look at the current value of the companies, Nintendo is worth $47B and Sony is worth only about a third more at $60B. This is quite remarkable when Playstation is only 25% of Sony's revenue. So either the remaining 75% of Sony is viewed as only worth $13B, or (more likely), the investing community views Nintendo as more valuable than PlayStation.

So while people are quick to assume that the Switch is going to decline, major investing firms after doing research are placing billions of dollars going the other way. Time will tell of course, I just find the divergent views interesting.

When you look at shareprice/marketcap you need to also take into account things like P/E which show how much sentiment/future growth is built into the company. Currently Nintendo sits on a PE of 38 while Sony is on 12. Personally I think this makes Nintendo a little overvalued or at least a much higher risk share as the future growth is already built into the shareprice, any hiccups would see a major drop. Sony's price however is probably fair.

Yes, agreed. Both earnings and sentiment are important in valuing a company, and the high P/E shows that market sentiment is that Nintendo will continue to see growth. The point I was trying to make (perhaps poorly), is by valuing Nintendo so highly, investors are clearly not expecting the Switch to decline any time soon. 



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VAMatt on 02 June 2018

I don't trust Nintendo's forecasts at all. They've proven time and time again that they have no idea how many units they will sell. So, the fact that they've forecasted more Switch sales than Sony has forecast for PS4 means very little.

I'm thinking PS4 will outsell Switch in 2018. Next year is a lot harder to call. If Nintendo will do some discounting, and they have some big titles to announce (such as a 2D Mario and Kart 9), it seems reasonable to believe that Switch will take the lead in annual sales at that point. Then again, Nintendo is infamous for missing launch dates for games. So, if they delay big 2018 titles into 2019, or delay big 2019 titles into 2020, that throws a bunch of question marks all over the place, and I have no idea what to expect in terms of console sales.



fatslob-:O on 02 June 2018

Possibly not when we consider the situation so far ...

1. PS4 beat the Switch by a MASSIVE 7M unit margin last year
2. PS4 has a lead of 1.5M units according to VGC and it is likely projected to reach ~3/3.5M units by the end of September
3. Nintendo system shipments usually often peak very early into their life cycle
4. Smash Bros for Switch release date has yet to be confirmed so the expectation that it will release in late Q3 this year is highly speculation for the most part
5. PS4 will most likely continue to have strong sales going into 2019 with as many as ~15M units sold

In conclusion, it would not be out of the realm of near possibility that the PS4 could potentially outsell the Switch next year too as well as it highly likely will for this year judging by current performance ...



exclusive_console on 02 June 2018

Sony still has games left for 2019. PS4Pro slim is also expected sooner or later so 300$ bundle. They might also release PS4 super slim. Pricing or SKU will matter IMO.



 

Rob5VGC on 02 June 2018

Don't really like comparing a current-last gen system like the PS4 with a current-new gen system like the Switch. But the PS4 will still be going strong next year so I can see it beating Switch. Honestly, it can go either way, but it is possible. It is great to see the PS4 shut these Switch users (annoying as fuck unlike during the Wii U launch period) up . So I hope it happens. :D



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Azuren on 03 June 2018
fatslob-:O said:

Possibly not when we consider the situation so far ...

1. PS4 beat the Switch by a MASSIVE 7M unit margin last year
2. PS4 has a lead of 1.5M units according to VGC and it is likely projected to reach ~3/3.5M units by the end of September
3. Nintendo system shipments usually often peak very early into their life cycle
4. Smash Bros for Switch release date has yet to be confirmed so the expectation that it will release in late Q3 this year is highly speculation for the most part
5. PS4 will most likely continue to have strong sales going into 2019 with as many as ~15M units sold

In conclusion, it would not be out of the realm of near possibility that the PS4 could potentially outsell the Switch next year too as well as it highly likely will for this year judging by current performance ...

I only wanted to not that your probably going to get a free prior commenting on how #3 isn't always true desire you clearly speaking to the norm, not the anomalous.



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StuOhQ on 03 June 2018

Let's waim until we see E3.



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UltimateGamer1982 on 03 June 2018

Nope. PS4 will continue its reign right up till ps5. Then switch will continue to lose to ps5.



quickrick on 03 June 2018
fatslob-:O said:

Possibly not when we consider the situation so far ...

1. PS4 beat the Switch by a MASSIVE 7M unit margin last year
2. PS4 has a lead of 1.5M units according to VGC and it is likely projected to reach ~3/3.5M units by the end of September
3. Nintendo system shipments usually often peak very early into their life cycle
4. Smash Bros for Switch release date has yet to be confirmed so the expectation that it will release in late Q3 this year is highly speculation for the most part
5. PS4 will most likely continue to have strong sales going into 2019 with as many as ~15M units sold

In conclusion, it would not be out of the realm of near possibility that the PS4 could potentially outsell the Switch next year too as well as it highly likely will for this year judging by current performance ...

Wow ps4 outsold switch by 7 million last year, thats insane.



zorg1000 on 03 June 2018
AlfredoTurkey said:
zorg1000 said:

Generations are completely arbitrary and mean nothing. Those example are also false equivelents.

Wii came out ~6 years after PS2 and PS2's successor released at the same time as well.

Switch came out ~3.5 years after PS4 and PS4 successor is not out yet.

The PS1 comparison just doesnt make sense at all as PS2 wasnt a competitor, it was its successor.

 

 

With that said, yes PS4 sales are outstanding.

You really like to argue about everything, don't you? I swear, it's like, no matter what I say, you quote and counter argue. The point is valid. Next generation consoles should outsell older generation consoles. When an older generation console outsells a brand new console, and it's not constraint related, it's fucking unbelievably impressive.

Maybe my phrasing in that post came off aggressive, if so im sorry. Im not trying to start an argument, im just pointing out how the situations are different, 3.5 years vs 6 years is a pretty big difference.

Regardless, these things happen pretty often.

NES was outselling Genesis initially

SNES was outselling PS1/Saturn initially

PS1 was outselling DC (possibly GC/XB) initially

PS2 was outselling PS3/360 initially

PS3/360 were outselling Wii U initially

PS4 is outselling Switch initially

 

I agree PS4 sales are outstanding but its really not that rare for older devices to outsell newer devices in the early stages.



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