By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

Barkley on 02 June 2018
MasterThief said:
zorg1000 said:

Last i checked Europe wasnt the world.

it sells a lot more than North america and Japan.  its usually the difference maker 

It doesn't sell a lot more, Europe isn't even the biggest market NA is. Add together sales of the PS4/xbo/switch. NA is bigger. It's around 56m for NA and 47m for EU.

But even if Europe was the biggest market, what you said still doesn't make sense. The Switch wouldn't have to beat the PS4 in Europe or even come close to hearing it to win on global sales.



Around the Network
Nautilus on 02 June 2018
LethalP said:
Nautilus said:

Simple.Sony themselves gave the answer you are asking for.They predict that the PS4 will sell 16 million units this fiscal year, and thats a decline compared to last year, even if its not that big of a drop.And if its going to decline this year, its reasonable to think its going to decline even further next year.Im basing my reasoning on that and what i believe to be common sense, which was already explained in the previous post.

Plus I do think that the PS4 will eventually reach and pass 110 million units, but why does it need to pass that mark before the PS5 releases?Consoles dont stop selling after it successor releases.I mean, thats how the PS2 manage to sell 150 million units.And I expect the same for the PS4.In the first two year of the PS5, I still expect the PS4 to sell 5 or 6 million units each year, give or take.Much like the 3DS is doing right now.

I'm not sure why Sony projected 16 million, maybe PS4 is doing worse than what VGChartz is suggesting? All I know is that PS4 is on pace to sell 80 million by E3/mid june, according to this site. Sony will likely announce that if that's the case. And if it is the case then the PS4 is already on the right track of being on par YoY with the first half of 2017. From there they just need a better second half, and if you ask me, PS4 has a bigger lineup for fall/holiday than last year. So it might be the decline some are expecting, but it also might not.

Keep this in mind though, if PS4 does ship 16 million by March 31st 2019, then that will put PS4 shipments at 95 million. But based on the way PS4 seems to be selling in 2018 and is on track to do, it could easily end up selling 18-20 million putting PS4 sell-through at 91-93 million by January 2019. If that is the case then it's shipments would already be near or at 95 million, 3 months before Sony projected. So I don't know. Maybe Sony actually do plan on releasing PS5 in 2019 which would explain them winding down shipments? But they have enough momentum in the first half of this year to sell just as well or better than 2017, so I'm at a loss.

I understand what you're saying though. Over the years PS4 will continue to sell even if it's not mega big sales per year. I just don't project a decline and think Sony are lowballing that 16 million. Either that or PS5 releases 2019.

Well, its not unlikely for companies to project their figures a little lower, so I can see it doing 1 or 2 million units more.But I guess we will see.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

HollyGamer on 02 June 2018

In theory it's possible for switch to out sell PS4 in slightly tiny small margin, but overall we need to wait for that to happen. It's all depend on how Nintendo pull the exclusives, innovation on games (new ip ) and third party support.

If Nintendo keep delivering great exclusives with more diversities and innovation of new ip also combined with third party games (triple A and not just Japanese double A) They will start out sell PS4 in slight tiny margin. Also don't forget Nintendo also can still reduce the price but i believe it wont happen at the moment.



nanarchy on 02 June 2018
brandon1546 said:

If you look at the current value of the companies, Nintendo is worth $47B and Sony is worth only about a third more at $60B. This is quite remarkable when Playstation is only 25% of Sony's revenue. So either the remaining 75% of Sony is viewed as only worth $13B, or (more likely), the investing community views Nintendo as more valuable than PlayStation.

So while people are quick to assume that the Switch is going to decline, major investing firms after doing research are placing billions of dollars going the other way. Time will tell of course, I just find the divergent views interesting.

When you look at shareprice/marketcap you need to also take into account things like P/E which show how much sentiment/future growth is built into the company. Currently Nintendo sits on a PE of 38 while Sony is on 12. Personally I think this makes Nintendo a little overvalued or at least a much higher risk share as the future growth is already built into the shareprice, any hiccups would see a major drop. Sony's price however is probably fair.



AlfredoTurkey on 02 June 2018

Well, PS4 IS a generation behind so, technically, it shouldn't even be able to outsell it at all. I don't think at this point, the PS2 was outselling the Wii or the PS1 outselling the PS2. The fact that PS4 is outselling a ninth generation console is outstanding no matter what.



Around the Network
zorg1000 on 02 June 2018
AlfredoTurkey said:

Well, PS4 IS a generation behind so, technically, it shouldn't even be able to outsell it at all. I don't think at this point, the PS2 was outselling the Wii or the PS1 outselling the PS2. The fact that PS4 is outselling a ninth generation console is outstanding no matter what.

Generations are completely arbitrary and mean nothing. Those example are also false equivelents.

Wii came out ~6 years after PS2 and PS2's successor released at the same time as well.

Switch came out ~3.5 years after PS4 and PS4 successor is not out yet.

The PS1 comparison just doesnt make sense at all as PS2 wasnt a competitor, it was its successor.

 

 

With that said, yes PS4 sales are outstanding.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Mbolibombo on 02 June 2018

Unless Nintendo has a massive game releasing in the first months in 2019 (How often does Nintendo release big games in the first quarter of a year?) I'm going to assume that the forecasts are a bit telling about the upcoming holiday games.

Alas, Switch will outsell the PS4 this year and thus make 2017 the only year the PS4 outsold the Switch year by year.



Megiddo on 02 June 2018

Nintendo needs to get the price down. Either a SKU without the dock or a cheaper revision with the dock. At the very least bundle MK8 or something. You've gotta have made 100x the money you put into that. Why not be consumer friendly?



Stuart23 on 02 June 2018

Only if last year really was PS4's peak. I do expect Switch to pull aggressive holidays this year and the next, dunno if will be enough to outsell PS4.



Switch Friend Code: SW - 1286-0025-9138

AlfredoTurkey on 02 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

Well, PS4 IS a generation behind so, technically, it shouldn't even be able to outsell it at all. I don't think at this point, the PS2 was outselling the Wii or the PS1 outselling the PS2. The fact that PS4 is outselling a ninth generation console is outstanding no matter what.

Generations are completely arbitrary and mean nothing. Those example are also false equivelents.

Wii came out ~6 years after PS2 and PS2's successor released at the same time as well.

Switch came out ~3.5 years after PS4 and PS4 successor is not out yet.

The PS1 comparison just doesnt make sense at all as PS2 wasnt a competitor, it was its successor.

 

 

With that said, yes PS4 sales are outstanding.

You really like to argue about everything, don't you? I swear, it's like, no matter what I say, you quote and counter argue. The point is valid. Next generation consoles should outsell older generation consoles. When an older generation console outsells a brand new console, and it's not constraint related, it's fucking unbelievably impressive.