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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

melbye on 02 June 2018

I wouldn't be shocked if Switch does manage to pull ahead this year because of the arguably stronger lineup of exclusives in the last half of the year. I did think for a short while there that Sony was planning to release a slim PS4 PRO model and cut the price to $299, but their projections kinda suggest that won't happen



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konnichiwa on 02 June 2018
quickrick said:
Nautilus said:

And you expect Sony to sell another 15 million units next year?Even when the PS4 would have probably passed 90 millions and be extremely close to 100 millions?You need to understand that there is eventually a saturation point that every console eventually reach.There are so many humans in the world interested in videogames that you can sell your console to.The high quality gamesthat are still going to release on the PS4 this year, like KH III, RDR 2 and so on, will move consoles, but wont move as much as they would normaly if released early in the console life, simply because thew audience for said games already has a PS4.PS4 is an amazing console, but its not a miracle worker.

Im not even going to adress the Switch factor here, given your bias against the company.Even if I pointed out that Nintendo is far from being empty on ammunition, since there is still Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, Bayonetta 3, a core Pokemon, new IPs and so on left, you wouldnt still acknoledge those circunstances, to put it lightly, and you will keep claiming as you were last year, that Nintendo already burned through most of their franchises,.So I believe that just pointing out the Sony factor as enough proof should be adequate, and spour a better discussion.

Once ps4 becomes 199$ well start talking about saturation, right now its selling better then switch in europe and North america at 299$, imagine when its 199$ with its huge library, and popularity it can probably do 18 million easy.

about the switch part  why even mention bayo 3 its not gonna move any units. as for core pokemon, at least 50% of pokemon fans will buy a switch for go, so core pokemon won't be having a massive impact like it would if it were the first pokemon on the console.

PS4 has been a lot of times 199$ and 180€  It is hard to say who beats who, last year Switch BF deals were horrible, if they have some good bf deals and sales in Japan are crazy like last year or even better it could beat PS4 but no way we know for sure.






quickrick on 02 June 2018
konnichiwa said:
quickrick said:

Once ps4 becomes 199$ well start talking about saturation, right now its selling better then switch in europe and North america at 299$, imagine when its 199$ with its huge library, and popularity it can probably do 18 million easy.

about the switch part  why even mention bayo 3 its not gonna move any units. as for core pokemon, at least 50% of pokemon fans will buy a switch for go, so core pokemon won't be having a massive impact like it would if it were the first pokemon on the console.

PS4 has been a lot of times 199$ and 180€  It is hard to say who beats who, last year Switch BF deals were horrible, if they have some good bf deals and sales in Japan are crazy like last year or even better it could beat PS4 but no way we know for sure.

its was 199$ for 3 days on BF and sold out everywhere, it sold 1.7 million that month in november. so i don't get what you mean by it 199$ a lot of times.



LethalP on 02 June 2018
Nautilus said:
LethalP said:

What reason is there to suggest that people will just stop buying PS4's simply because there's 'so many already'? We have all seen the ceiling for PS consoles, and the PS4 is basically following that blueprint to the T. I don't think it will sell 155 million+, but I do expect at least 110 million sold by the release of the PS5 in November 2020.

Expecting 15 million in 2019 doesn't sound crazy at all. The world won't just suddenly run out of potential PS4 customers. It didn't happen to the PS2, why the PS4? Mind share and library are only getting better and better for the PS4. It's had record breaking months and has several mega blockbusters for this year both first and third party. It has a pretty positive road map of games going forward and I don't see any reason for PS4 to drastically slow down.

That said, 2019 will not sell as many PS4's as 2017-2018, but I also expect more than 15 million as well.

Simple.Sony themselves gave the answer you are asking for.They predict that the PS4 will sell 16 million units this fiscal year, and thats a decline compared to last year, even if its not that big of a drop.And if its going to decline this year, its reasonable to think its going to decline even further next year.Im basing my reasoning on that and what i believe to be common sense, which was already explained in the previous post.

Plus I do think that the PS4 will eventually reach and pass 110 million units, but why does it need to pass that mark before the PS5 releases?Consoles dont stop selling after it successor releases.I mean, thats how the PS2 manage to sell 150 million units.And I expect the same for the PS4.In the first two year of the PS5, I still expect the PS4 to sell 5 or 6 million units each year, give or take.Much like the 3DS is doing right now.

I'm not sure why Sony projected 16 million, maybe PS4 is doing worse than what VGChartz is suggesting? All I know is that PS4 is on pace to sell 80 million by E3/mid june, according to this site. Sony will likely announce that if that's the case. And if it is the case then the PS4 is already on the right track of being on par YoY with the first half of 2017. From there they just need a better second half, and if you ask me, PS4 has a bigger lineup for fall/holiday than last year. So it might be the decline some are expecting, but it also might not.

Keep this in mind though, if PS4 does ship 16 million by March 31st 2019, then that will put PS4 shipments at 95 million. But based on the way PS4 seems to be selling in 2018 and is on track to do, it could easily end up selling 18-20 million putting PS4 sell-through at 91-93 million by January 2019. If that is the case then it's shipments would already be near or at 95 million, 3 months before Sony projected. So I don't know. Maybe Sony actually do plan on releasing PS5 in 2019 which would explain them winding down shipments? But they have enough momentum in the first half of this year to sell just as well or better than 2017, so I'm at a loss.

I understand what you're saying though. Over the years PS4 will continue to sell even if it's not mega big sales per year. I just don't project a decline and think Sony are lowballing that 16 million. Either that or PS5 releases 2019.



MasterThief on 02 June 2018

the deal is. I dont see NSW beating PS4 in europe anytime soon. even next year.



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Soundwave on 02 June 2018

PS4 is at 80 million, at some point sales saturation sets in, a lot of people who want a PS4 already by this point have one. Playstation 5 is likely being announced and maybe coming in 2019 so that will start to slow its momentum as people start to prep for the next gen.



zorg1000 on 02 June 2018
MasterThief said:
the deal is. I dont see NSW beating PS4 in europe anytime soon. even next year.

Last i checked Europe wasnt the world.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

konnichiwa on 02 June 2018
quickrick said:
konnichiwa said:

PS4 has been a lot of times 199$ and 180€  It is hard to say who beats who, last year Switch BF deals were horrible, if they have some good bf deals and sales in Japan are crazy like last year or even better it could beat PS4 but no way we know for sure.

its was 199$ for 3 days on BF and sold out everywhere, it sold 1.7 million that month in november. so i don't get what you mean by it 199$ a lot of times.

Well it was last year during BF but I saw similar threads before about 199$ deals.  In Europe it always drops around special occasions, last year with the switch launch it was 180-199€ as an example.






brandon1546 on 02 June 2018

If you look at the current value of the companies, Nintendo is worth $47B and Sony is worth only about a third more at $60B. This is quite remarkable when Playstation is only 25% of Sony's revenue. So either the remaining 75% of Sony is viewed as only worth $13B, or (more likely), the investing community views Nintendo as more valuable than PlayStation.

So while people are quick to assume that the Switch is going to decline, major investing firms after doing research are placing billions of dollars going the other way. Time will tell of course, I just find the divergent views interesting.



MasterThief on 02 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
MasterThief said:
the deal is. I dont see NSW beating PS4 in europe anytime soon. even next year.

Last i checked Europe wasnt the world.

it sells a lot more than North america and Japan.  its usually the difference maker