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LethalP on 02 June 2018
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Nautilus said:
LethalP said:

What reason is there to suggest that people will just stop buying PS4's simply because there's 'so many already'? We have all seen the ceiling for PS consoles, and the PS4 is basically following that blueprint to the T. I don't think it will sell 155 million+, but I do expect at least 110 million sold by the release of the PS5 in November 2020.

Expecting 15 million in 2019 doesn't sound crazy at all. The world won't just suddenly run out of potential PS4 customers. It didn't happen to the PS2, why the PS4? Mind share and library are only getting better and better for the PS4. It's had record breaking months and has several mega blockbusters for this year both first and third party. It has a pretty positive road map of games going forward and I don't see any reason for PS4 to drastically slow down.

That said, 2019 will not sell as many PS4's as 2017-2018, but I also expect more than 15 million as well.

Simple.Sony themselves gave the answer you are asking for.They predict that the PS4 will sell 16 million units this fiscal year, and thats a decline compared to last year, even if its not that big of a drop.And if its going to decline this year, its reasonable to think its going to decline even further next year.Im basing my reasoning on that and what i believe to be common sense, which was already explained in the previous post.

Plus I do think that the PS4 will eventually reach and pass 110 million units, but why does it need to pass that mark before the PS5 releases?Consoles dont stop selling after it successor releases.I mean, thats how the PS2 manage to sell 150 million units.And I expect the same for the PS4.In the first two year of the PS5, I still expect the PS4 to sell 5 or 6 million units each year, give or take.Much like the 3DS is doing right now.

I'm not sure why Sony projected 16 million, maybe PS4 is doing worse than what VGChartz is suggesting? All I know is that PS4 is on pace to sell 80 million by E3/mid june, according to this site. Sony will likely announce that if that's the case. And if it is the case then the PS4 is already on the right track of being on par YoY with the first half of 2017. From there they just need a better second half, and if you ask me, PS4 has a bigger lineup for fall/holiday than last year. So it might be the decline some are expecting, but it also might not.

Keep this in mind though, if PS4 does ship 16 million by March 31st 2019, then that will put PS4 shipments at 95 million. But based on the way PS4 seems to be selling in 2018 and is on track to do, it could easily end up selling 18-20 million putting PS4 sell-through at 91-93 million by January 2019. If that is the case then it's shipments would already be near or at 95 million, 3 months before Sony projected. So I don't know. Maybe Sony actually do plan on releasing PS5 in 2019 which would explain them winding down shipments? But they have enough momentum in the first half of this year to sell just as well or better than 2017, so I'm at a loss.

I understand what you're saying though. Over the years PS4 will continue to sell even if it's not mega big sales per year. I just don't project a decline and think Sony are lowballing that 16 million. Either that or PS5 releases 2019.