Sure, I don't mind sharing.

Well, there are many reasons why I believe this will be the case: for starters, Sony's line up for the first half of the year was amazing (and will continue to be in the second half) with heavy hitters and exclusives like Monster Hunter World, God of War and Far Cry 5, while Switch's line up was very modest. Kirby being the biggest release of the first 6 months of the year really highlights this. Now, we all know Switch is going to get many heavy hitters on the second semester such as Smash Bros. and a Pokémon game, which might not be exactly the mainline game people expected, but still looks a lot like a traditional Pokémon game.

On top of that, Nintendo systems show a much bigger growth on the holiday season compared to PS, and last year Switch was no exception. And then we have the companies shipments forecasts. I know companies can undershoot/overshoot predictions, and I firmly believe Sony will surpass their forecast, but Nintendo is expecting 20m shipped this fiscal year, and I don't really believe Sony will overship their forecast by 4m at this rate. Also, judging by its performance and possible second semester line up, I don't have a reason to doubt Nintendo's forecast, especially when they have been spot on and sometimes even pessimistic lately.

Regardless, I think it will be close.

About 2018, PS4 still has the power.

I used to think that Nintendo was in a drought, but the thing is, most games Nintendo released this year were strong titles for all the people out there that haven't picked up Wii U. I'd say that Nintendo has a high quality line up this year and yet they couldn't stop PS4 in its, let's say, beginning of final stage.

Besides Pokemon and Smash, I don't see any other Nintendo title that could hit PS4. Sony has still incredible titles to show.

I don't believe Nintendo can stop PS4 this year.

About next year, Nintendo might beat PS4 for some weeks because of a mix of good bundles, deals, Smash, Pokemon and some other content that we don't know about yet. However, I can't see Nintendo destroying PS4.

The thing is, Nintendo will have already released most of its big franchises before 2020 (Pokemon, Smash, Zelda, Mario, MK). Furthermore, Nintendo usually has its peak early in console cycle. After that, Nintendo is quite hopeless. Although Switch is a handheld console and handhelds have always done very well, I don't believe Nintendo will grow more in the second half of 2019/first half of 2020 than it's growing this year.

To sum it up: Nintendo will not beat PS4 this year, but may beat PS4 for some weeks in 2019. After that, Sony will still be the king and PS5 will have everything to keep beating NSW.

I have been out of town on vacation lol! And what!!! Are you serious!!! Don't tease my heart like that man!!!! Now I have to go see it!!!! Yes!!!! And you are correct MHW did give the PS4 a nice boost in Japan I was wrong there. But I would not say it was a MAJOR release like GoW was.

Very good points man! I can see why you would feel that way.

I was on vacation all last week out of town so I literally just found out about Pokemon today! So I am super hype about that and can't wait to go check out the trailer for it! So with that and Smash for the second half of the year they will sell gangbusters! But we can't count he PS4 out with Spider-man, BO4 marketing rights and RDR2 marketing rights either. Also you are correct Nintendo systems always show big growth during the Holiday season but mostly in December. So if Sony has another big Nov with the PS4 then it could offset that so that will be the thing to watch there.

I think Sony will definitely beat their shipment forecast while Nin meets theirs almost spot on. Like you I definitely think it will be very close. But feel the PS4 will edge it out ever so slightly thanks to the lead that they are currently building. But it is a healthy year for them both for sure! So I am excited!!!......Now to go get hype for Pokemon Switch!!!

In response to my first reply to you.....

Awwwwwwwww man. It is just Pokemon Go on Switch .........

While it looks cool still and some of the concepts look fun it is still not a full fledged Pokemon game just yet

Either way it will still sell loads this year.......but a let down for me. I am SOOOOO ready for a Pokemon game done CORRECTLY and full fledged. Waiting for the dream of Pokemon Colosseum being FULLY realized and done the right way, that game had so much potential but Nintendo dropped the ball with it sigh.......one day lol.

Its a mainline title, Game Freak made that clear.

Also Monster Hunter has sold 7.9 million by the end of March, it was a major release.

Well that's exactly what i'm saying, didn't get a major boost with all these releases except for MHW which is clearly a system seller since it boosted the sales like crazy in Japan for several weeks, the only market that was still responding really well to big PS4 releases but it seems there is not much coming to boost it anymore, that's why i'm saying the WW numbers will have a hard time getting up when the PS4 will only go down in japan from now on. Saying MHW wasn't a system seller while it had bundle and ramped up the sales WW (cause of Japan) is absolutely crazy. Pokemon is releasing in November son, and Kirby and Labo are far far far different from a big franchise like MHW that also got a BUNDLE and same for GoW which had trailer of 18 millions views lmao. Kirby isn't a system seller and also happen to be not well received and Labo is a product for kids which will probably pick up more during holidays.

Spiderman might not even end up being a good game and is still less anticipated then GoW. In a perfect world where Spidey is as well received as GoW with critics and fans, which i don't think will happen, we will probably just see a boost like GoW did which was really disappointing. RDR isn't as popular as people make it seems, sure it will have the marketing power of Rockstar but the trailers don't even get that much attention and honestly i don't think a non exclusive game will have that much impact on the sales of a 5 year old console even if there is a bundle while an exclusive didn't do much. There is a thing called market saturation, as hard as you can try the reaction from your initiatives to make the numbers go up will be less and less powerful.

MHW, GoW, DBZ, SotC, Detroit.. vs Kirby, Labo and a port of DKCTF, we are talking this year, last year is different but still Mario 3D, Zelda 3D, Xenoblade are not big sellers in japan. MK8D is a port. I would say only Splatoon 2 would be considered a big seller but still not as big as a new MH, Pokemon or Dragon quest would be. Even a Mario 2D or an animal crossing game would do 3 times the effect.

Well that's exactly what i'm saying, if MHW, Dragon quest and the huge amount of releases every week can't make the PS4 baseline go up then it certainly will not be Spidey, call of duty or RDR2 that will. I think Switch will be getting too big in the coming months that even if Sony has a major title next year, people are just not attracted to the PS4 in Japan... it just won't happen. It has pretty much all the big franchises and had bundles of them and still is down to under 20k in the spring period with lots of new releases. There is a small drought coming for the summer, the usual summer drought tho, but i can't see the PS4 keep over 15k a week with barely any releases if it did 17k last week with like 5 games. It might even go under 10k.

I'm not saying the PS4 won't sell well or won't outsell the Switch, but the Switch has the potential to break out in 2nd half and in the end i'm just saying that PS4 had a better 1st half of games but Switch has more system seller during 2nd half so judging from the 1st half isn't gonna prove anything. It will probably go down as if Nintendo actually participate to Black friday this year or not like last year.

It's a mainline game but it came with the announcement of a more traditional game on Switch in 2019, which is the game they said they talked about at last year's E3. Apparently they have been working on that title since Sun/Moon and a part of the team was working on US/UM and the let's go games.

Hmmmmm maybe I just got the wrong impression from the trailer. I will follow this game closely in the following months! Keeping my fingers crossed lol.

And MHW FAR exceeded expectations but it was not a "major "release imo. And it boosted Japan of course since it was a highly anticipated game for that market.! I am did and still am enjoying it! But it is not up there with GoW as "Major" not by a long shot. It sold 7.9 million across multiple platforms. GoW sold almost half of that in 3 days and will meet/surpass that on ONE platform....that is a MAJOR release imo.

I am still curious about the baseline for when GoW came out but I guess we will see how big of an impact it had in a few days at E3. When/if Sony gives a sell through announcement. And I see now you are focusing a lot on Japan and I have to say you are correct the PS4 baseline will not go up that much there at all. It has been holding steady which is good thanks to the games that have been released. I was thinking of things more in a WW aspect with all the games I mentioned. So I agree Spider-man, RDR2 and BO4 are not going to do much/if anything for Japan at all.

And you are also correct there is a such thing as market saturation but 80 million is not market saturation lol. Also I disagree from all the previews Spider-man looks amazing(no pun intended lol) and will more than likely be a very good game. And WW will definitely increase sales ESPECIALLY when getting closer to the Holidays. And BO4 might not do much but RDR2 will definitely move some systems as well! No doubts about that one.

Oh and I know you are not talking bad about the PS4 or saying it won't sell well. Just healthy conversation and debate that's all! Both systems will have a great 2nd half of the year that is for sure! With much bigger sales than the first half. I just think with such a big lead and no signs of the PS4 slowing down AND that lead increasing AND also increasing the 2nd half of the year right with the Switch. That it would be hard for the Switch to take the year unless it absolutely exploded during the Holidays.

So it will be more of a traditional game then? And not so much like the Go game was? I hope they have a bundle for it! Then I will be grabbing my Switch! Because I am sure they will have Animal Crossing and Pikmin on it next year!

It does have a more casual approach and some Pokemon Go features (most notably the catching mechanic) but for the most part it still plays like a traditional Pokemon title and was stated by the creators to be a mainline entry.

MHW did 7.5 million in just a little over 1 month, most of that is from PS4. God of War did 5 million in 1 month. They are both major titles.

I will give it a shot either way because I am a huge Pokemon fan.

And okay I can go with that MHW