Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

[TheBlackNaruto]

zorg1000 said:

TheBlackNaruto said:

In response to my first reply to you.....

Awwwwwwwww man. It is just Pokemon Go on Switch .........

While it looks cool still and some of the concepts look fun it is still not a full fledged Pokemon game just yet

Either way it will still sell loads this year.......but a let down for me. I am SOOOOO ready for a Pokemon game done CORRECTLY and full fledged. Waiting for the dream of Pokemon Colosseum being FULLY realized and done the right way, that game had so much potential but Nintendo dropped the ball with it sigh.......one day lol.

Its a mainline title, Game Freak made that clear.

Also Monster Hunter has sold 7.9 million by the end of March, it was a major release.

Hmmmmm maybe I just got the wrong impression from the trailer. I will follow this game closely in the following months! Keeping my fingers crossed lol.

And MHW FAR exceeded expectations but it was not a "major "release imo. And it boosted Japan of course since it was a highly anticipated game for that market.! I am did and still am enjoying it! But it is not up there with GoW as "Major" not by a long shot. It sold 7.9 million across multiple platforms. GoW sold almost half of that in 3 days and will meet/surpass that on ONE platform....that is a MAJOR release imo.

xMetroid said:

TheBlackNaruto said:

But it did get a boost though and it was a steady one. Not a big one as you said but it was boosted for sure. And it seems to be still holding with its effect. And you are right there have been lots of COD games yet they all continue to sell so can't count them out ever lol. And you keep talking about Pokemon as if it has been announced with a set release date for this year. Don't get me wrong I am not talking bad about Pokemon because it is by far my most anticipated Switch game(if done correctly). While Pokemon will DEFINITELY be huge there is no info on if it will even release this year. And the only reason I mentioned Kirby and Labo was because you mentioned MHW and SotC as if they were system sellers lol.

While Spider-man may not be as big as GoW it will still be a BIG game and it is coming out right before the Holidays so it will help sales for sure as well. And it is VERY much anticipated. And wow I completely forgot about RDR2....Sony has marketing rights for that games as well and with a nice bundle that game will sell gangbusters!

And you keep saying people expect the PS4 to break big numbers when it barley got a bump with ALL the BIG games it got which were way more hyped. Outside of GoW what BIG games were there that got MAJOR hype? Because you said all like there were a lot of them. And what do you mean the Switch didn't have big sellers in Japan last year? It had MK8, Mario Od, Zelda, Splatoon 2 AND XBC2 last year lol. That is a VERY impressive line up!

And what do you mean the PS4 played all it's cards in Japan? How did you come to that conclusion? I agree the Switch will grow in Japan with certain game releases though. And will grow WW as well. But the PS4 does not seem to be slowing down. And didn't it just get Detroit as well? So they have been doing pretty good and have momentum going into June with games already. July will be slow for sure, Aug will be decent Madden is the only thing that comes to mind for that month and Madden is NOWHERE near what it used to be. Then Sept you have Spider-man, Oct is BO4 and RDR2 then Nov and Dec are the holiday months so those will have great deals. So outside of July the drought will be small.

And I truly hope MTA does great because I absolutely love the MT games! I won't put a lot of stock into Amazon though because Kirby was supposedly doing very well on Amazon as well. But I agree at E3 anything can change for sure! And I agree the Switch definitely can outsell the PS4 this year. Again I think it will be very close with the PS4 slightly edging the Switch out. But if the Switch is to win the year it needs to pick it up though we are in June now and the PS4 lead is at almost 2million and is steadily growing. Whatever the case I hope Nin, Sony AND MS all have a big E3 this year!

Well that's exactly what i'm saying, didn't get a major boost with all these releases except for MHW which is clearly a system seller since it boosted the sales like crazy in Japan for several weeks, the only market that was still responding really well to big PS4 releases but it seems there is not much coming to boost it anymore, that's why i'm saying the WW numbers will have a hard time getting up when the PS4 will only go down in japan from now on. Saying MHW wasn't a system seller while it had bundle and ramped up the sales WW (cause of Japan) is absolutely crazy. Pokemon is releasing in November son, and Kirby and Labo are far far far different from a big franchise like MHW that also got a BUNDLE and same for GoW which had trailer of 18 millions views lmao. Kirby isn't a system seller and also happen to be not well received and Labo is a product for kids which will probably pick up more during holidays.

 

Spiderman might not even end up being a good game and is still less anticipated then GoW. In a perfect world where Spidey is as well received as GoW with critics and fans, which i don't think will happen, we will probably just see a boost like GoW did which was really disappointing. RDR isn't as popular as people make it seems, sure it will have the marketing power of Rockstar but the trailers don't even get that much attention and honestly i don't think a non exclusive game will have that much impact on the sales of a 5 year old console even if there is a bundle while an exclusive didn't do much. There is a thing called market saturation, as hard as you can try the reaction from your initiatives to make the numbers go up will be less and less powerful.

MHW, GoW, DBZ, SotC, Detroit.. vs Kirby, Labo and a port of DKCTF, we are talking this year, last year is different but still Mario 3D, Zelda 3D, Xenoblade are not big sellers in japan. MK8D is a port. I would say only Splatoon 2 would be considered a big seller but still not as big as a new MH, Pokemon or Dragon quest would be. Even a Mario 2D or an animal crossing game would do 3 times the effect.

 

Well that's exactly what i'm saying, if MHW, Dragon quest and the huge amount of releases every week can't make the PS4 baseline go up then it certainly will not be Spidey, call of duty or RDR2 that will. I think Switch will be getting too big in the coming months that even if Sony has a major title next year, people are just not attracted to the PS4 in Japan... it just won't happen. It has pretty much all the big franchises and had bundles of them and still is down to under 20k in the spring period with lots of new releases. There is a small drought coming for the summer, the usual summer drought tho, but i can't see the PS4 keep over 15k a week with barely any releases if it did 17k last week with like 5 games. It might even go under 10k.

 

I'm not saying the PS4 won't sell well or won't outsell the Switch, but the Switch has the potential to break out in 2nd half and in the end i'm just saying that PS4 had a better 1st half of games but Switch has more system seller during 2nd half so judging from the 1st half isn't gonna prove anything. It will probably go down as if Nintendo actually participate to Black friday this year or not like last year.

 

 

 

I am still curious about the baseline for when GoW came out but I guess we will see how big of an impact it had in a few days at E3. When/if Sony gives a sell through announcement. And I see now you are focusing a lot on Japan and I have to say you are correct the PS4 baseline will not go up that much there at all. It has been holding steady which is good thanks to the games that have been released. I was thinking of things more in a WW aspect with all the games I mentioned. So I agree Spider-man, RDR2 and BO4 are not going to do much/if anything for Japan at all.

And you are also correct there is a such thing as market saturation but 80 million is not market saturation lol. Also I disagree from all the previews Spider-man looks amazing(no pun intended lol) and will more than likely be a very good game. And WW will definitely increase sales ESPECIALLY when getting closer to the Holidays. And BO4 might not do much but RDR2 will definitely move some systems as well! No doubts about that one.

Oh and I know you are not talking bad about the PS4 or saying it won't sell well. Just healthy conversation and debate that's all! Both systems will have a great 2nd half of the year that is for sure! With much bigger sales than the first half. I just think with such a big lead and no signs of the PS4 slowing down AND that lead increasing AND also increasing the 2nd half of the year right with the Switch. That it would be hard for the Switch to take the year unless it absolutely exploded during the Holidays.

xMetroid said:

TheBlackNaruto said:

In response to my first reply to you.....

Awwwwwwwww man. It is just Pokemon Go on Switch .........

While it looks cool still and some of the concepts look fun it is still not a full fledged Pokemon game just yet

Either way it will still sell loads this year.......but a let down for me. I am SOOOOO ready for a Pokemon game done CORRECTLY and full fledged. Waiting for the dream of Pokemon Colosseum being FULLY realized and done the right way, that game had so much potential but Nintendo dropped the ball with it sigh.......one day lol.

It's a mainline game but it came with the announcement of a more traditional game on Switch in 2019, which is the game they said they talked about at last year's E3. Apparently they have been working on that title since Sun/Moon and a part of the team was working on US/UM and the let's go games.

So it will be more of a traditional game then? And not so much like the Go game was? I hope they have a bundle for it! Then I will be grabbing my Switch! Because I am sure they will have Animal Crossing and Pikmin on it next year!