Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

[TheBlackNaruto]

zorg1000 said:

TheBlackNaruto said:

And you keep talking about Pokemon as if it has been announced with a set release date for this year.

 And the only reason I mentioned Kirby and Labo was because you mentioned MHW and SotC as if they were system sellers lol.

Dude where have you been all week? Pokemon was shown and coming in Nov.

Also, Monster Hunter is a big system seller in Japan, it caused PS4 to be up like 250k YoY last quarter.

I have been out of town on vacation lol! And what!!! Are you serious!!! Don't tease my heart like that man!!!! Now I have to go see it!!!! Yes!!!! And you are correct MHW did give the PS4 a nice boost in Japan I was wrong there. But I would not say it was a MAJOR release like GoW was.

LipeJJ said:

TheBlackNaruto said:

But why do you feel that way if you don't mind me asking when it has been consistently outselling it all year and shows no signs of that reversing just yet? I mean I am not saying you will be wrong......just wondering why you feel this way.

Me personally I think it will be close by the end of the year with the PS4 taking it.

Sure, I don't mind sharing.

Well, there are many reasons why I believe this will be the case: for starters, Sony's line up for the first half of the year was amazing (and will continue to be in the second half) with heavy hitters and exclusives like Monster Hunter World, God of War and Far Cry 5, while Switch's line up was very modest. Kirby being the biggest release of the first 6 months of the year really highlights this. Now, we all know Switch is going to get many heavy hitters on the second semester such as Smash Bros. and a Pokémon game, which might not be exactly the mainline game people expected, but still looks a lot like a traditional Pokémon game.

On top of that, Nintendo systems show a much bigger growth on the holiday season compared to PS, and last year Switch was no exception. And then we have the companies shipments forecasts. I know companies can undershoot/overshoot predictions, and I firmly believe Sony will surpass their forecast, but Nintendo is expecting 20m shipped this fiscal year, and I don't really believe Sony will overship their forecast by 4m at this rate. Also, judging by its performance and possible second semester line up, I don't have a reason to doubt Nintendo's forecast, especially when they have been spot on and sometimes even pessimistic lately.

Regardless, I think it will be close.

Very good points man! I can see why you would feel that way.

I was on vacation all last week out of town so I literally just found out about Pokemon today! So I am super hype about that and can't wait to go check out the trailer for it! So with that and Smash for the second half of the year they will sell gangbusters! But we can't count he PS4 out with Spider-man, BO4 marketing rights and RDR2 marketing rights either. Also you are correct Nintendo systems always show big growth during the Holiday season but mostly in December. So if Sony has another big Nov with the PS4 then it could offset that so that will be the thing to watch there.

I think Sony will definitely beat their shipment forecast while Nin meets theirs almost spot on. Like you I definitely think it will be very close. But feel the PS4 will edge it out ever so slightly thanks to the lead that they are currently building. But it is a healthy year for them both for sure! So I am excited!!!......Now to go get hype for Pokemon Switch!!!