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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Weekly, 31st March 2018, Software

LethalP on 26 May 2018
RolStoppable said:
LethalP said:

The nerve, lol.

The Switch is doing better than the 3DS, without a doubt. But then the Switch had renewed momentum being a totally different kind of device for Nintendo. It had the best launch year of any Nintendo console.

Going with VGChartz numbers for a second the software attach rate for the Switch is higher, 16 million units and 50.9 million software as of March 31st 2018. The 3DS was at 16.9 million units and 35 million software as of March 31st 2012. That is significantly different. But the 3DS didn't have Mario Kart 8, Mario Oddysey, Zelda, Xenoblade and Splatoon 2 all in the same year. Your theory of the Switch having home console attach ratios because it can be docked doesn't make much sense though. The big kicker when it comes to tie ratio is how many games a system gets. How many high selling ones especially. It directly explains why the PS3 and 360 were able to shift more software than the Wii despite selling less hardware. The Switch has already shown it doesn't have traditional home console attach ratios because just like the Wii and every other Nintendo console, it's game sales were extremely top heavy. Which is why I mentioned 1 million+ sellers as it is an indication of how healthy the broad spectrum of games that are coming to the system are selling. I'm not suggesting it's the metric of success. The Switch may well be a home console, but it's not more successful because of it.

Look, the Wii sold 915 million software. A quarter of that would be 228 million. If you add up just the Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Play etc alone you get 188 million. These games sold to a demographic that aren't buying Switches. They all dominated the VGC top 10 for years after their release selling 100-200k a week. Non bundled games don't do that. But shit, I realize we could get into a whole other can of worms there. The point at hand was the Switch doesn't get that benefit in software sales.

I don't expect the Switch's tie ratio to be the same as the 3DS (4.3 on VCG). You keep saying I think this thing will mirror the success of the 3DS. I don't expect that. I have said in other posts that the home console and handheld franchises all in one place will also have a positive effect on software sales and indeed tie ratio. My whole point of reply to the original poster was that there is no guarantee the Switch will sell more software than the Xbox One. OG Xbox and 360 both settled at tie ratios higher than 11. Handhelds are less than half of that on average. Highest being the DS at 5.5. If there's any handheld that can break that mould, it's the Switch, mainly because it will have a larger stream of big releases for reasons mentioned. But it's not coming close to a console that gets full stream third party support.

It isn't cut and dry at all. The Switch might reach a 7.00 tie ratio and sell 120 million units like you said, bringing it's retail software to 840 million, but what the hell is going to drive those numbers? Pokemon didn't do it for 3DS or GBA. And it's no secret that it didn't do it for DS either. My mother owned 4 DS's, never owned another console before or since.

Let's recap the numbers: You expected Switch to have a tie ratio of 5 (hence 90m consoles lead to 450m units of software), but the Xbox One is expected to have a tie ratio of 11. Fact is that Switch is on a pace between 3DS and Xbox One, so that would lead to a tie ratio of 8, something you claimed is a value that one has to be full of shit in order to believe. The number of Switch game releases is increasing, so Switch's tie ratio will continue to track comfortably above the 3DS's. Additionally, Switch doesn't need to come close to the tie ratio of the Xbox One, because it's a foregone conclusion that Switch will sell much more hardware than the Xbox One.

As for the Wii, I see that you are one of those people who put the cart before the horse. You believe that people bought a balance board and got Wii Fit with it, but it's the other way around. Furthermore, there are plenty of examples of Nintendo games that have had great legs without any bundling, both in the correct definition of bundling and your definition of bundling. For example, in 2018 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is going at a pace of close to 100k units sold per week.

What's going to drive Switch software sales is two-fold:

1. Nintendo's own output will be greater in quantity and many invidividual titles have very good chances to become the bestselling ones in their respective franchise.

2. Third parties will be more present than on the 3DS which will hold especially true for American and European publishers. When you have dozens of additional publishers putting out games regularly, the numbers add up quickly, even when individual titles will rarely shift multiple millions of units. Wii didn't have many third party million sellers in comparison to Xbox 360 and PS3, but all third party games combined accounted for several hundred million copies sold.

The Switch gets 3 or 4 big releases a year. Nintendo's franchises have crazy legs and continue to sell, but that isn't enough to compete with a constant stream of big games. Here's the Xbox One software totals 13 months in:

https://web.archive.org/web/20150114075451/http://www.vgchartz.com:80/platform/68/xbox-one

Here's the Switches:

http://www.vgchartz.com/platform/83/nintendo-switch/

47 million for X1 and 50.9 million for Switch. So fair play to Switch for selling more software than Xbox One in the same time frame. But the Switch had 16 million unit sales and Xbox One had 10 million. PS4 was at 18 million and had 81 million software sales (Xbox tie ratio was actually higher at that point). Notice the spread of software sales. Xbox One with 16 1 million sellers and Switch with 8 (PS4 had 26). More games do well on an Xbox than Switch. The Xbox One might not even have 1 10 million seller on VGC this gen, but a larger portion of games sell better on Xbox to make up for it. The Switch is going to shift 10's of millions of Nintendo software and leave everything else in the dust like every generation. And these Nintendo games simply can't make up for the FIFA's, CoD's, BF's, Red Deads, and myriads of third party software that Xbox gets every year.

So the Switch will likely end this year with 30-35 million sales (similar to Xbox One now). But let me tell you this, it's software won't even be half of the 244 million Xbox currently has right now. Pokemon will sell 10-12 million in 2018, Smash likely 8-10 million. But what beyond those will take the Switch to 120 million software? It's currently 70 million units away from that number (half what Xbox sold). It's doable I suppose, but you better bank on crazy Pokemon and Smash sales (which isn't too much to get behind).

The Wii thing, it's just the way it is. Wii didn't sell 500-700k a month in the US just because of Nintendo's staple franchises. I mean, do we have to go into this?

It's true many games will be their best selling entries like Zelda and Mario, probably everything else considered 'core' will be too like Kirby (as we already know), Metroid, Pikmin and stuff of that nature. The same thing happened for Sony this gen probably for similar console mindshare reasons. But I think it's best we define our expectations rather than discuss hypotheticals. What exactly do you project the Switch realisticly doing and why? I'll start.

  • It will sell through 17-18 million units this year taking it to around 32 million by 2019. Why do I think that? Looking at the way it's selling now, I expect about 8-9 million by October, then a big 7-8 million selling holiday seems about right.
  • It will shift about 60 million software units in 2018 taking it to 100-110 million. Simply because it's a realistic expectation for a console only releasing 3 big games in a year, even if they are huge games.
  • I think 90-100 million lifetime seems about right. Nintendo's core franchises won't substitute for what the Wii and Ds had going for it.
  • 500-600 million software units lifetime. Seems about right for a 90-100 million selling handheld.
I think that seems reasonable. Pretty much spot on actually. What say you?

 

 

 

Last edited by LethalP - on 26 May 2018

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MasonADC on 26 May 2018
LethalP said:
RolStoppable said:

Let's recap the numbers: You expected Switch to have a tie ratio of 5 (hence 90m consoles lead to 450m units of software), but the Xbox One is expected to have a tie ratio of 11. Fact is that Switch is on a pace between 3DS and Xbox One, so that would lead to a tie ratio of 8, something you claimed is a value that one has to be full of shit in order to believe. The number of Switch game releases is increasing, so Switch's tie ratio will continue to track comfortably above the 3DS's. Additionally, Switch doesn't need to come close to the tie ratio of the Xbox One, because it's a foregone conclusion that Switch will sell much more hardware than the Xbox One.

As for the Wii, I see that you are one of those people who put the cart before the horse. You believe that people bought a balance board and got Wii Fit with it, but it's the other way around. Furthermore, there are plenty of examples of Nintendo games that have had great legs without any bundling, both in the correct definition of bundling and your definition of bundling. For example, in 2018 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is going at a pace of close to 100k units sold per week.

What's going to drive Switch software sales is two-fold:

1. Nintendo's own output will be greater in quantity and many invidividual titles have very good chances to become the bestselling ones in their respective franchise.

2. Third parties will be more present than on the 3DS which will hold especially true for American and European publishers. When you have dozens of additional publishers putting out games regularly, the numbers add up quickly, even when individual titles will rarely shift multiple millions of units. Wii didn't have many third party million sellers in comparison to Xbox 360 and PS3, but all third party games combined accounted for several hundred million copies sold.

The Switch gets 3 or 4 big releases a year. Nintendo's franchises have crazy legs and continue to sell, but that isn't enough to compete with a constant stream of big games. Here's the Xbox One software totals 13 months in:

https://web.archive.org/web/20150114075451/http://www.vgchartz.com:80/platform/68/xbox-one

Here's the Switches:

http://www.vgchartz.com/platform/83/nintendo-switch/

47 million for X1 and 50.9 million for Switch. So fair play to Switch for selling more software than Xbox One in the same time frame. But the Switch had 16 million unit sales and Xbox One had 10 million. PS4 was at 18 million and had 81 million software sales (Xbox tie ratio was actually higher at that point). Notice the spread of software sales. Xbox One with 16 1 million sellers and Switch with 8 (PS4 had 26). More games do well on an Xbox than Switch. The Xbox One might not even have 1 10 million seller on VGC this gen, but a larger portion of games sell better on Xbox to make up for it. The Switch is going to shift 10's of millions of Nintendo software and leave everything else in the dust like every generation. And these Nintendo games simply can't make up for the FIFA's, CoD's, BF's, Red Deads, and myriads of third party software that Xbox gets every year.

So the Switch will likely end this year with 30-35 million sales (similar to Xbox One now). But let me tell you this, it's software won't even be half of the 244 million Xbox currently has right now. Pokemon will sell 10-12 million in 2018, Smash likely 8-10 million. But what beyond those will take the Switch to 120 million software? It's currently 70 million units away from that number (half what Xbox sold). It's doable I suppose, but you better bank on crazy Pokemon and Smash sales (which isn't too much to get behind).

The Wii thing, it's just the way it is. Wii didn't sell 500-700k a month in the US just because of Nintendo's staple franchises. I mean, do we have to go into this?

It's true many games will be their best selling entries like Zelda and Mario, probably everything else considered 'core' will be too like Kirby (as we already know), Metroid, Pikmin and stuff of that nature. The same thing happened for Sony this gen probably for similar console mindshare reasons. But I think it's best we define our expectations rather than discuss hypotheticals. What exactly do you project the Switch realisticly doing and why? I'll start.

  • It will sell through 17-18 million units this year taking it to around 32 million by 2019. Why do I think that? Looking at the way it's selling now, I expect about 8-9 million by October, then a big 7-8 million selling holiday seems about right.
  • It will shift about 60 million software units in 2018 taking it to 100-110 million. Simply because it's a realistic expectation for a console only releasing 3 big games in a year, even if they are huge games.
  • I think 90-100 million lifetime seems about right. Nintendo's core franchises won't substitute for what the Wii and Ds had going for it.
  • 500-600 million software units lifetime. Seems about right for a 90-100 million selling handheld.
I think that seems reasonable. Pretty much spot on actually. What say you?

 

 

 

Nintendo is expecting 100 million this Fiscal Year I believe, do you really think they will be off by 40 million?

 

Edit: I see you mean 2018, not fiscal year. Even then, they already had 16 million software sales in the first quarter. I don't see why sales would drop below that, so expecting only 60 million this year is a weird prediction 

 

 

 

Last edited by MasonADC - on 26 May 2018

LethalP on 26 May 2018
MasonADC said:
LethalP said:

The Switch gets 3 or 4 big releases a year. Nintendo's franchises have crazy legs and continue to sell, but that isn't enough to compete with a constant stream of big games. Here's the Xbox One software totals 13 months in:

https://web.archive.org/web/20150114075451/http://www.vgchartz.com:80/platform/68/xbox-one

Here's the Switches:

http://www.vgchartz.com/platform/83/nintendo-switch/

47 million for X1 and 50.9 million for Switch. So fair play to Switch for selling more software than Xbox One in the same time frame. But the Switch had 16 million unit sales and Xbox One had 10 million. PS4 was at 18 million and had 81 million software sales (Xbox tie ratio was actually higher at that point). Notice the spread of software sales. Xbox One with 16 1 million sellers and Switch with 8 (PS4 had 26). More games do well on an Xbox than Switch. The Xbox One might not even have 1 10 million seller on VGC this gen, but a larger portion of games sell better on Xbox to make up for it. The Switch is going to shift 10's of millions of Nintendo software and leave everything else in the dust like every generation. And these Nintendo games simply can't make up for the FIFA's, CoD's, BF's, Red Deads, and myriads of third party software that Xbox gets every year.

So the Switch will likely end this year with 30-35 million sales (similar to Xbox One now). But let me tell you this, it's software won't even be half of the 244 million Xbox currently has right now. Pokemon will sell 10-12 million in 2018, Smash likely 8-10 million. But what beyond those will take the Switch to 120 million software? It's currently 70 million units away from that number (half what Xbox sold). It's doable I suppose, but you better bank on crazy Pokemon and Smash sales (which isn't too much to get behind).

The Wii thing, it's just the way it is. Wii didn't sell 500-700k a month in the US just because of Nintendo's staple franchises. I mean, do we have to go into this?

It's true many games will be their best selling entries like Zelda and Mario, probably everything else considered 'core' will be too like Kirby (as we already know), Metroid, Pikmin and stuff of that nature. The same thing happened for Sony this gen probably for similar console mindshare reasons. But I think it's best we define our expectations rather than discuss hypotheticals. What exactly do you project the Switch realisticly doing and why? I'll start.

  • It will sell through 17-18 million units this year taking it to around 32 million by 2019. Why do I think that? Looking at the way it's selling now, I expect about 8-9 million by October, then a big 7-8 million selling holiday seems about right.
  • It will shift about 60 million software units in 2018 taking it to 100-110 million. Simply because it's a realistic expectation for a console only releasing 3 big games in a year, even if they are huge games.
  • I think 90-100 million lifetime seems about right. Nintendo's core franchises won't substitute for what the Wii and Ds had going for it.
  • 500-600 million software units lifetime. Seems about right for a 90-100 million selling handheld.
I think that seems reasonable. Pretty much spot on actually. What say you?

 

 

 

Nintendo is expecting 100 million this Fiscal Year I believe, do you really think they will be off by 40 million?

 

I'm keeping to calander year since we're discussing VGC numbers mainly. My point is by January 2019, the Switch should have between 100-120 million software units sold at retail according to VGChartz. Nintendo counts digital which is doing pretty well on the Switch especially with indie titles. Anywhere from 30-35 million hardware units by January 2019.



Bofferbrauer2 on 27 May 2018
LethalP said:
konnichiwa said:
Would be an interesting thread. '(When) will Switch phyiscal software totals overtake Xbox one physical software totals.

There's no guarantee the Switch will sell more software than the Xbox One. The Switch won't have anywhere close the same attach rates as the Xbox, which has the best attach rates of any consoles other than PlayStation. Handhelds don't in general. Look at the Gameboy at 118 million hardware units, it sold 501 million software. The NES also sold 501 million software, but inside 61 million hardware units. It had nearly double the attach rate.

The Xbox will sell 500 million physical units in the end probably. The ps4 will do about 1.2-1.4 billion. Switch about 450 million. (if it sells above 90 million which is likely). 

You're giving the Switch the attach rate of a handheld like DS or PSP with just 5 games per system. However, Switch is largely tracking far ahead of the handhelds when it comes to attach rate. In fact, the attach rate is much closer to the one of the PS4 than it is to any handheld. After 63 weeks, Switch has an attach rate of 3.23, compared to 3.84 for the PS4 and between 2.00 (DS) and 2.36 (Vita) for the handhelds. While it tracks relatively low for home consoles, it still tracks far above any handheld.

Outside of such weeks where a big release comes out on the XBO, Switch is already outpacing the XBO in software sales despite only having about half the install base. I think 450M is way too low a target for Switch software sales. The 900M of the Wii are probably more the target of Nintendo in terms of software sales, and I think 700M is very achievable.

I don't think the XBO can sell 500M physical games anymore. After almost 5 years not only the XBO still hasn't reached half of that target, but also the software sales seems to be slowing down. Software sales were down a whopping 18% last year compared to 2016 and this so far year it's looking like it's going down yet again despite the increase in hardware sales.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

LethalP on 27 May 2018
RolStoppable said:
LethalP said:

The Switch gets 3 or 4 big releases a year. Nintendo's franchises have crazy legs and continue to sell, but that isn't enough to compete with a constant stream of big games. Here's the Xbox One software totals 13 months in:

https://web.archive.org/web/20150114075451/http://www.vgchartz.com:80/platform/68/xbox-one

Here's the Switches:

http://www.vgchartz.com/platform/83/nintendo-switch/

47 million for X1 and 50.9 million for Switch. So fair play to Switch for selling more software than Xbox One in the same time frame. But the Switch had 16 million unit sales and Xbox One had 10 million. PS4 was at 18 million and had 81 million software sales (Xbox tie ratio was actually higher at that point). Notice the spread of software sales. Xbox One with 16 1 million sellers and Switch with 8 (PS4 had 26). More games do well on an Xbox than Switch. The Xbox One might not even have 1 10 million seller on VGC this gen, but a larger portion of games sell better on Xbox to make up for it. The Switch is going to shift 10's of millions of Nintendo software and leave everything else in the dust like every generation. And these Nintendo games simply can't make up for the FIFA's, CoD's, BF's, Red Deads, and myriads of third party software that Xbox gets every year.

So the Switch will likely end this year with 30-35 million sales (similar to Xbox One now). But let me tell you this, it's software won't even be half of the 244 million Xbox currently has right now. Pokemon will sell 10-12 million in 2018, Smash likely 8-10 million. But what beyond those will take the Switch to 120 million software? It's currently 70 million units away from that number (half what Xbox sold). It's doable I suppose, but you better bank on crazy Pokemon and Smash sales (which isn't too much to get behind).

The Wii thing, it's just the way it is. Wii didn't sell 500-700k a month in the US just because of Nintendo's staple franchises. I mean, do we have to go into this?

It's true many games will be their best selling entries like Zelda and Mario, probably everything else considered 'core' will be too like Kirby (as we already know), Metroid, Pikmin and stuff of that nature. The same thing happened for Sony this gen probably for similar console mindshare reasons. But I think it's best we define our expectations rather than discuss hypotheticals. What exactly do you project the Switch realisticly doing and why? I'll start.

  • It will sell through 17-18 million units this year taking it to around 32 million by 2019. Why do I think that? Looking at the way it's selling now, I expect about 8-9 million by October, then a big 7-8 million selling holiday seems about right.
  • It will shift about 60 million software units in 2018 taking it to 100-110 million. Simply because it's a realistic expectation for a console only releasing 3 big games in a year, even if they are huge games.
  • I think 90-100 million lifetime seems about right. Nintendo's core franchises won't substitute for what the Wii and Ds had going for it.
  • 500-600 million software units lifetime. Seems about right for a 90-100 million selling handheld.
I think that seems reasonable. Pretty much spot on actually. What say you?

At this point it has ceased to be a proper argument and is a mere case of confusion on your part.

1. You pointed out that launch-aligned through 13 months, Switch has outpaced Xbox One's total software sales by ~4m units.

2. You project 50-60m units of software for Switch over the next nine months, bringing the total to 100-110m through 22 months. In comparison, the Xbox One had sold 72.2m units of software through 22 months, according to VGC. Therefore you are projecting the gap in total software sales to grow significantly in favor of Switch, from ~4m to 28-38m.

3. Your conclusion is that it's unlikely that Switch will sell more software in its lifetime than the Xbox One despite the maths you have laid out. You have not explained what will cause the dramatic change in the trajectory that has Switch outpacing Xbox One in launch-aligned software sales.

This discussion started because you had made the conclusion that it's improbable for Switch to come out on top. You have thrown a couple of supporting points into the room in order to support your conclusion, but when you began to run the maths, they went against the conclusion you were aiming for without you realizing it.

The sub-point regarding the Wii is similarly perplexing. Previously you argued that Wii's software sales were significantly inflated due to bundling, suggesting that more than a quarter of its total software sales weren't real software sales, because people got games that they didn't want due to bundling. Now you are arguing that Wii's hardware sales were inflated, because such high sales couldn't possibly be driven by Nintendo's staple franchises alone. But this in turn means that Wiis were bought precisely because of the games you denounced previously, so it contradicts your suggestion that Wii Sports, Wii Fit etc. shouldn't be considered real software sales.

The bottom line is that you should look at the facts first and form a conclusion afterwards, not the other way around. When you make the projection that Switch's total software sales will continue to outpace the Xbox One's total software sales in a launch-aligned comparison, then I have no need to make a counter-argument because that's something I agree with and heads towards the conclusion that Switch will sell more software in its lifetime than the Xbox One.

I never said it was improbable, I said it wasn't a given since Xbox One's attach rate will settle significantly higher than Switches.

1. Yes, the Switch sold more software, but with 6 million more unit sales. The tie ratio is considerably smaller. The Switch's rate of sales could well insure that it will sell more software than Xbox regardless of tie ratio, which I'm not disregarding. And if Switch does indeed sell 120 million units, then yeah, of course it will sell more software but again, that's not something we can just assume will happen. I haven't actually assumed anything, I just raised a question, it being wether Switch actually will sell more software than Xbox One taking into account Xbox tie ratios compared to handhelds historically.

2. When you look at how much software both consoles sell in a given year, Xbox does 60-65 million a year, Switch will probably fall between the 60-70 million a year too. If both consoles continue to sell at this rate, what is stopping Xbox One from over taking Switch? Then consider the head start Xbox has had and how latter years in an Xbox's life still sells a lot of software. There is no guarantee Switch will sell more software than Xbox One. It might sell 120 million units and 700+ million software, but there's no current trend in Switches sales that tells me this will be the case.

3. Again, I didn't say it's unlikely, it's even probable, but not certain. One thing that could well affect Switch software sales is lack of substantial releases throughout most of the year.

The maths says both consoles are selling software at similar rates, anything could swing that, a game release or a drought for example. By January 2016 (25 months) the Xbox One sold 113 million software units, It's not out of the question that the Switch could do similar numbers by January 2019, or March 31st if we want the same 25 month numbers. It could also do more, in fact I think it might, but we don't know. We need to know what Switch's second year growth will be like.

My point with the Wii boils down to this, it had an advantage with software sales that other Nintendo consoles (including Switch) doesnt, and that is multiple mass bundled games. They were real software sales because they were the main reason the Wii averaged 500k a month in the US, they were driving those numbers to a customer base they had not sold to prior. They are good games, the Wii was rightly the king of last generation. Nintendo were on their A game with both the motion control games and their first party. They earned that success. But it also drives home my point of Nintendo's staple franchises alone would not have drove those sales, because it hadn't happened before or since. I guess a small example is, Mario Galaxy sold 11 million units or so, so did Mario 64. But one sold to a 100 million install base and the other a 38 million. Nintendo staple games will sell regardless of install base, even if the attach ratio has to be 1:1, because that's why Nintendo hardware even exists at this point, so people can buy Nintendo games. It's a hell of a buisness strategy for Nintendo. 

So while I will say the Switch is going to be a success, I'm not sure what to really expect from Switch's 2018 software sales. I've said 60-70 million and I don't expect any lower, more likely even higher. And I expect 60-70 million from Xbox One as well. Xbox did 64 million in 2015, Switch has that to beat.

 



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LethalP on 27 May 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
LethalP said:

There's no guarantee the Switch will sell more software than the Xbox One. The Switch won't have anywhere close the same attach rates as the Xbox, which has the best attach rates of any consoles other than PlayStation. Handhelds don't in general. Look at the Gameboy at 118 million hardware units, it sold 501 million software. The NES also sold 501 million software, but inside 61 million hardware units. It had nearly double the attach rate.

The Xbox will sell 500 million physical units in the end probably. The ps4 will do about 1.2-1.4 billion. Switch about 450 million. (if it sells above 90 million which is likely). 

You're giving the Switch the attach rate of a handheld like DS or PSP with just 5 games per system. However, Switch is largely tracking far ahead of the handhelds when it comes to attach rate. In fact, the attach rate is much closer to the one of the PS4 than it is to any handheld. After 63 weeks, Switch has an attach rate of 3.23, compared to 3.84 for the PS4 and between 2.00 (DS) and 2.36 (Vita) for the handhelds. While it tracks relatively low for home consoles, it still tracks far above any handheld.

Outside of such weeks where a big release comes out on the XBO, Switch is already outpacing the XBO in software sales despite only having about half the install base. I think 450M is way too low a target for Switch software sales. The 900M of the Wii are probably more the target of Nintendo in terms of software sales, and I think 700M is very achievable.

I don't think the XBO can sell 500M physical games anymore. After almost 5 years not only the XBO still hasn't reached half of that target, but also the software sales seems to be slowing down. Software sales were down a whopping 18% last year compared to 2016 and this so far year it's looking like it's going down yet again despite the increase in hardware sales.

Why did Switch sell more software and had a better tie ratio in it's first year than the 3DS? Was it because it's a Hybrid? Or was it because it got more significant releases in it's first year? Do you think PS and Xbox have higher tie ratios because they are home consoles? Or because they get the lions share of the games in the industry? I'd say the latter. The Switch should have a higher attach rate than the 3DS in the end, simply because it also gets Nintendo's home console franchises. And it's likely to have better support in general. So it all comes down to the amount of games.

This is where my whole thing about Switch and Xbox came up. They both did similar amounts in their first 13 months (X1 = 47 million and Switch = 50.9 million). But Xbox with 10 million units and Switch with 16 million units. The question is, what will Switch do in 2018 all together? Xbox One did 64 million in 2015, if Switch out does that in 2018 it will be in the lead. But saying the tie ratio of PS4 and Switch will end up being similar is crazy.

It all depends on what Switch ends up selling. If it does 80 million, then expect 450 million on VGChartz. If it does 120 million then expect 700+ million. But I also expect Xbox One to reach 450-500 million software sales too. About 300 million by 2019, 360 million by 2020. 400 million by the release of the next Xbox and it crawls to 500 million in the remainder of it's life. It might make it, it might not. But 60-70 million software sales is about what to expect for Xbox One in a year.

 



Bofferbrauer2 on 27 May 2018
LethalP said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

You're giving the Switch the attach rate of a handheld like DS or PSP with just 5 games per system. However, Switch is largely tracking far ahead of the handhelds when it comes to attach rate. In fact, the attach rate is much closer to the one of the PS4 than it is to any handheld. After 63 weeks, Switch has an attach rate of 3.23, compared to 3.84 for the PS4 and between 2.00 (DS) and 2.36 (Vita) for the handhelds. While it tracks relatively low for home consoles, it still tracks far above any handheld.

Outside of such weeks where a big release comes out on the XBO, Switch is already outpacing the XBO in software sales despite only having about half the install base. I think 450M is way too low a target for Switch software sales. The 900M of the Wii are probably more the target of Nintendo in terms of software sales, and I think 700M is very achievable.

I don't think the XBO can sell 500M physical games anymore. After almost 5 years not only the XBO still hasn't reached half of that target, but also the software sales seems to be slowing down. Software sales were down a whopping 18% last year compared to 2016 and this so far year it's looking like it's going down yet again despite the increase in hardware sales.

Why did Switch sell more software and had a better tie ratio in it's first year than the 3DS? Was it because it's a Hybrid? Or was it because it got more significant releases in it's first year? Do you think PS and Xbox have higher tie ratios because they are home consoles? Or because they get the lions share of the games in the industry? I'd say the latter. The Switch should have a higher attach rate than the 3DS in the end, simply because it also gets Nintendo's home console franchises. And it's likely to have better support in general. So it all comes down to the amount of games.

This is where my whole thing about Switch and Xbox came up. They both did similar amounts in their first 13 months (X1 = 47 million and Switch = 50.9 million). But Xbox with 10 million units and Switch with 16 million units. The question is, what will Switch do in 2018 all together? Xbox One did 64 million in 2015, if Switch out does that in 2018 it will be in the lead. But saying the tie ratio of PS4 and Switch will end up being similar is crazy.

It all depends on what Switch ends up selling. If it does 80 million, then expect 450 million on VGChartz. If it does 120 million then expect 700+ million. But I also expect Xbox One to reach 450-500 million software sales too. About 300 million by 2019, 360 million by 2020. 400 million by the release of the next Xbox and it crawls to 500 million in the remainder of it's life. It might make it, it might not. But 60-70 million software sales is about what to expect for Xbox One in a year.

 

Well, let's have a look at the games released: Switch got Super Mario Odyssey, TLoZ:BotW, MK8D and Splatoon 2 as big sellers in it's first year. 3DS got Ocarina of Time 3D, Mario Kart 7, Super Mario 3D Land and Nintendogs + Cats in it's first release year. 4 against 4 games, it's a tie. What's more, both got a Zelda, a Mario Jump&Run, a Mario Kart and a remake of a very beloved and critically acclaimed game, So you can't blame it on having more significant releases, as it just isn't true.

Home consoles sell more games because they're home consoles. You can have over a dozen games at home without a problem, but try bringing as many with your handheld anywhere, it's just tedious. Plus, you play normally less on a handheld unless you're constantly on the road. Less playtime means less games played. The Switch, being a hybrid, doesn't have the latter problem and the former is strongly diminished because many just use it as a home console. Attach rate will probably trail down behind XBO and PS4, but not by much.

XBO was down to 55M in terms of software sales compared to well over 60M in 2015 and 2016, and right now the trend looks like it's going down yet again. It needs some big quality exclusives to keep it's sales afloat, otherwise software sales will continue to slump and make it hard to reach even 400M. Unless some big exclusives coming out this year, I wouldn't hold my breath if XBO software sales slide below 50M this year.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Megiddo on 28 May 2018

PS4 with almost 60% total retail software sales this week. That's nuts.



psychicscubadiver on 28 May 2018
LethalP said:

So while I will say the Switch is going to be a success, I'm not sure what to really expect from Switch's 2018 software sales. I've said 60-70 million and I don't expect any lower, more likely even higher. And I expect 60-70 million from Xbox One as well. Xbox did 64 million in 2015, Switch has that to beat.

 

Why do you expect Xbox One to do 60-70 million?

It did 55 million in 2017 (a decline from 2016) despite the release of a new Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, Destiny 2, Star Wars Battlefront 2, Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Wildlands and Forza.

What games are coming out for the Xbox One that would reverse the decline?



LethalP on 28 May 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
LethalP said:

Why did Switch sell more software and had a better tie ratio in it's first year than the 3DS? Was it because it's a Hybrid? Or was it because it got more significant releases in it's first year? Do you think PS and Xbox have higher tie ratios because they are home consoles? Or because they get the lions share of the games in the industry? I'd say the latter. The Switch should have a higher attach rate than the 3DS in the end, simply because it also gets Nintendo's home console franchises. And it's likely to have better support in general. So it all comes down to the amount of games.

This is where my whole thing about Switch and Xbox came up. They both did similar amounts in their first 13 months (X1 = 47 million and Switch = 50.9 million). But Xbox with 10 million units and Switch with 16 million units. The question is, what will Switch do in 2018 all together? Xbox One did 64 million in 2015, if Switch out does that in 2018 it will be in the lead. But saying the tie ratio of PS4 and Switch will end up being similar is crazy.

It all depends on what Switch ends up selling. If it does 80 million, then expect 450 million on VGChartz. If it does 120 million then expect 700+ million. But I also expect Xbox One to reach 450-500 million software sales too. About 300 million by 2019, 360 million by 2020. 400 million by the release of the next Xbox and it crawls to 500 million in the remainder of it's life. It might make it, it might not. But 60-70 million software sales is about what to expect for Xbox One in a year.

 

Well, let's have a look at the games released: Switch got Super Mario Odyssey, TLoZ:BotW, MK8D and Splatoon 2 as big sellers in it's first year. 3DS got Ocarina of Time 3D, Mario Kart 7, Super Mario 3D Land and Nintendogs + Cats in it's first release year. 4 against 4 games, it's a tie. What's more, both got a Zelda, a Mario Jump&Run, a Mario Kart and a remake of a very beloved and critically acclaimed game, So you can't blame it on having more significant releases, as it just isn't true.

Home consoles sell more games because they're home consoles. You can have over a dozen games at home without a problem, but try bringing as many with your handheld anywhere, it's just tedious. Plus, you play normally less on a handheld unless you're constantly on the road. Less playtime means less games played. The Switch, being a hybrid, doesn't have the latter problem and the former is strongly diminished because many just use it as a home console. Attach rate will probably trail down behind XBO and PS4, but not by much.

XBO was down to 55M in terms of software sales compared to well over 60M in 2015 and 2016, and right now the trend looks like it's going down yet again. It needs some big quality exclusives to keep it's sales afloat, otherwise software sales will continue to slump and make it hard to reach even 400M. Unless some big exclusives coming out this year, I wouldn't hold my breath if XBO software sales slide below 50M this year.

Significant releases is relative. None of those games on 3DS were as significant or sold as much as what the Switch got. The Switch has the same advantage the PS4 has this gen with it's exclusives, the positive mindshare resulting in the best selling entries into the franchise. That will indeed help attach ratio no doubt. But the 3DS comparison is actually a bit pointless since we know Switch is already on track to doing significantly more software. But it's also selling faster as well.

The Switch's attach rate is already well below PS4 and Xbox though. In 2014 X1 sold 7.9 million units. It sold 40 million software in that same year. A 5.1 tie ratio. Switch sold 13 million units in 2017, 41 million software in the same year. A 3.15 tie ratio. I definately see higher rate of sales for Switch than the 3DS, but it's going to fall well behind Xbox One. Another thing to take into account with tie ratios is that as a system starts to slow down in hardware sales, it's tie ratios swell. This is especially true with PS and Xbox consoles because of the overall library and the continued annual releases/cross gen games despite slowed down hardware sales. 

There is the chance that the Switch does Gamecube like tie ratios with a hardcore following, but it's current trend and the fact that it's only selling moderately more software than Xbox One despite more than double the hardware sales tells me otherwise. And that's not even taking into account the tie ratio swell. But then tie ratios won't matter if the Switch sells 120 million and Xbox One barely manages 55 million. In which case the Switch will blitz X1 in software. But even realistically speaking, I actually would bet on the Switch selling more software, I just proposed the question 'what if'? It's not like the Switch's software sales are completely leaving X1 in the dust after all.