RolStoppable said:
At this point it has ceased to be a proper argument and is a mere case of confusion on your part. 1. You pointed out that launch-aligned through 13 months, Switch has outpaced Xbox One's total software sales by ~4m units. 2. You project 50-60m units of software for Switch over the next nine months, bringing the total to 100-110m through 22 months. In comparison, the Xbox One had sold 72.2m units of software through 22 months, according to VGC. Therefore you are projecting the gap in total software sales to grow significantly in favor of Switch, from ~4m to 28-38m. 3. Your conclusion is that it's unlikely that Switch will sell more software in its lifetime than the Xbox One despite the maths you have laid out. You have not explained what will cause the dramatic change in the trajectory that has Switch outpacing Xbox One in launch-aligned software sales. This discussion started because you had made the conclusion that it's improbable for Switch to come out on top. You have thrown a couple of supporting points into the room in order to support your conclusion, but when you began to run the maths, they went against the conclusion you were aiming for without you realizing it. The sub-point regarding the Wii is similarly perplexing. Previously you argued that Wii's software sales were significantly inflated due to bundling, suggesting that more than a quarter of its total software sales weren't real software sales, because people got games that they didn't want due to bundling. Now you are arguing that Wii's hardware sales were inflated, because such high sales couldn't possibly be driven by Nintendo's staple franchises alone. But this in turn means that Wiis were bought precisely because of the games you denounced previously, so it contradicts your suggestion that Wii Sports, Wii Fit etc. shouldn't be considered real software sales. The bottom line is that you should look at the facts first and form a conclusion afterwards, not the other way around. When you make the projection that Switch's total software sales will continue to outpace the Xbox One's total software sales in a launch-aligned comparison, then I have no need to make a counter-argument because that's something I agree with and heads towards the conclusion that Switch will sell more software in its lifetime than the Xbox One. |
I never said it was improbable, I said it wasn't a given since Xbox One's attach rate will settle significantly higher than Switches.
1. Yes, the Switch sold more software, but with 6 million more unit sales. The tie ratio is considerably smaller. The Switch's rate of sales could well insure that it will sell more software than Xbox regardless of tie ratio, which I'm not disregarding. And if Switch does indeed sell 120 million units, then yeah, of course it will sell more software but again, that's not something we can just assume will happen. I haven't actually assumed anything, I just raised a question, it being wether Switch actually will sell more software than Xbox One taking into account Xbox tie ratios compared to handhelds historically.
2. When you look at how much software both consoles sell in a given year, Xbox does 60-65 million a year, Switch will probably fall between the 60-70 million a year too. If both consoles continue to sell at this rate, what is stopping Xbox One from over taking Switch? Then consider the head start Xbox has had and how latter years in an Xbox's life still sells a lot of software. There is no guarantee Switch will sell more software than Xbox One. It might sell 120 million units and 700+ million software, but there's no current trend in Switches sales that tells me this will be the case.
3. Again, I didn't say it's unlikely, it's even probable, but not certain. One thing that could well affect Switch software sales is lack of substantial releases throughout most of the year.
The maths says both consoles are selling software at similar rates, anything could swing that, a game release or a drought for example. By January 2016 (25 months) the Xbox One sold 113 million software units, It's not out of the question that the Switch could do similar numbers by January 2019, or March 31st if we want the same 25 month numbers. It could also do more, in fact I think it might, but we don't know. We need to know what Switch's second year growth will be like.
My point with the Wii boils down to this, it had an advantage with software sales that other Nintendo consoles (including Switch) doesnt, and that is multiple mass bundled games. They were real software sales because they were the main reason the Wii averaged 500k a month in the US, they were driving those numbers to a customer base they had not sold to prior. They are good games, the Wii was rightly the king of last generation. Nintendo were on their A game with both the motion control games and their first party. They earned that success. But it also drives home my point of Nintendo's staple franchises alone would not have drove those sales, because it hadn't happened before or since. I guess a small example is, Mario Galaxy sold 11 million units or so, so did Mario 64. But one sold to a 100 million install base and the other a 38 million. Nintendo staple games will sell regardless of install base, even if the attach ratio has to be 1:1, because that's why Nintendo hardware even exists at this point, so people can buy Nintendo games. It's a hell of a buisness strategy for Nintendo.
So while I will say the Switch is going to be a success, I'm not sure what to really expect from Switch's 2018 software sales. I've said 60-70 million and I don't expect any lower, more likely even higher. And I expect 60-70 million from Xbox One as well. Xbox did 64 million in 2015, Switch has that to beat.
