Global Weekly, 31st March 2018, Software

[LethalP]

RolStoppable said:

LethalP said:

The nerve, lol.

The Switch is doing better than the 3DS, without a doubt. But then the Switch had renewed momentum being a totally different kind of device for Nintendo. It had the best launch year of any Nintendo console.

Going with VGChartz numbers for a second the software attach rate for the Switch is higher, 16 million units and 50.9 million software as of March 31st 2018. The 3DS was at 16.9 million units and 35 million software as of March 31st 2012. That is significantly different. But the 3DS didn't have Mario Kart 8, Mario Oddysey, Zelda, Xenoblade and Splatoon 2 all in the same year. Your theory of the Switch having home console attach ratios because it can be docked doesn't make much sense though. The big kicker when it comes to tie ratio is how many games a system gets. How many high selling ones especially. It directly explains why the PS3 and 360 were able to shift more software than the Wii despite selling less hardware. The Switch has already shown it doesn't have traditional home console attach ratios because just like the Wii and every other Nintendo console, it's game sales were extremely top heavy. Which is why I mentioned 1 million+ sellers as it is an indication of how healthy the broad spectrum of games that are coming to the system are selling. I'm not suggesting it's the metric of success. The Switch may well be a home console, but it's not more successful because of it.

Look, the Wii sold 915 million software. A quarter of that would be 228 million. If you add up just the Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Play etc alone you get 188 million. These games sold to a demographic that aren't buying Switches. They all dominated the VGC top 10 for years after their release selling 100-200k a week. Non bundled games don't do that. But shit, I realize we could get into a whole other can of worms there. The point at hand was the Switch doesn't get that benefit in software sales.

I don't expect the Switch's tie ratio to be the same as the 3DS (4.3 on VCG). You keep saying I think this thing will mirror the success of the 3DS. I don't expect that. I have said in other posts that the home console and handheld franchises all in one place will also have a positive effect on software sales and indeed tie ratio. My whole point of reply to the original poster was that there is no guarantee the Switch will sell more software than the Xbox One. OG Xbox and 360 both settled at tie ratios higher than 11. Handhelds are less than half of that on average. Highest being the DS at 5.5. If there's any handheld that can break that mould, it's the Switch, mainly because it will have a larger stream of big releases for reasons mentioned. But it's not coming close to a console that gets full stream third party support.

It isn't cut and dry at all. The Switch might reach a 7.00 tie ratio and sell 120 million units like you said, bringing it's retail software to 840 million, but what the hell is going to drive those numbers? Pokemon didn't do it for 3DS or GBA. And it's no secret that it didn't do it for DS either. My mother owned 4 DS's, never owned another console before or since.

Let's recap the numbers: You expected Switch to have a tie ratio of 5 (hence 90m consoles lead to 450m units of software), but the Xbox One is expected to have a tie ratio of 11. Fact is that Switch is on a pace between 3DS and Xbox One, so that would lead to a tie ratio of 8, something you claimed is a value that one has to be full of shit in order to believe. The number of Switch game releases is increasing, so Switch's tie ratio will continue to track comfortably above the 3DS's. Additionally, Switch doesn't need to come close to the tie ratio of the Xbox One, because it's a foregone conclusion that Switch will sell much more hardware than the Xbox One.

As for the Wii, I see that you are one of those people who put the cart before the horse. You believe that people bought a balance board and got Wii Fit with it, but it's the other way around. Furthermore, there are plenty of examples of Nintendo games that have had great legs without any bundling, both in the correct definition of bundling and your definition of bundling. For example, in 2018 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is going at a pace of close to 100k units sold per week.

What's going to drive Switch software sales is two-fold:

1. Nintendo's own output will be greater in quantity and many invidividual titles have very good chances to become the bestselling ones in their respective franchise.

2. Third parties will be more present than on the 3DS which will hold especially true for American and European publishers. When you have dozens of additional publishers putting out games regularly, the numbers add up quickly, even when individual titles will rarely shift multiple millions of units. Wii didn't have many third party million sellers in comparison to Xbox 360 and PS3, but all third party games combined accounted for several hundred million copies sold.

The Switch gets 3 or 4 big releases a year. Nintendo's franchises have crazy legs and continue to sell, but that isn't enough to compete with a constant stream of big games. Here's the Xbox One software totals 13 months in:

https://web.archive.org/web/20150114075451/http://www.vgchartz.com:80/platform/68/xbox-one

Here's the Switches:

http://www.vgchartz.com/platform/83/nintendo-switch/

47 million for X1 and 50.9 million for Switch. So fair play to Switch for selling more software than Xbox One in the same time frame. But the Switch had 16 million unit sales and Xbox One had 10 million. PS4 was at 18 million and had 81 million software sales (Xbox tie ratio was actually higher at that point). Notice the spread of software sales. Xbox One with 16 1 million sellers and Switch with 8 (PS4 had 26). More games do well on an Xbox than Switch. The Xbox One might not even have 1 10 million seller on VGC this gen, but a larger portion of games sell better on Xbox to make up for it. The Switch is going to shift 10's of millions of Nintendo software and leave everything else in the dust like every generation. And these Nintendo games simply can't make up for the FIFA's, CoD's, BF's, Red Deads, and myriads of third party software that Xbox gets every year.

So the Switch will likely end this year with 30-35 million sales (similar to Xbox One now). But let me tell you this, it's software won't even be half of the 244 million Xbox currently has right now. Pokemon will sell 10-12 million in 2018, Smash likely 8-10 million. But what beyond those will take the Switch to 120 million software? It's currently 70 million units away from that number (half what Xbox sold). It's doable I suppose, but you better bank on crazy Pokemon and Smash sales (which isn't too much to get behind).

The Wii thing, it's just the way it is. Wii didn't sell 500-700k a month in the US just because of Nintendo's staple franchises. I mean, do we have to go into this?

It's true many games will be their best selling entries like Zelda and Mario, probably everything else considered 'core' will be too like Kirby (as we already know), Metroid, Pikmin and stuff of that nature. The same thing happened for Sony this gen probably for similar console mindshare reasons. But I think it's best we define our expectations rather than discuss hypotheticals. What exactly do you project the Switch realisticly doing and why? I'll start.

• It will sell through 17-18 million units this year taking it to around 32 million by 2019. Why do I think that? Looking at the way it's selling now, I expect about 8-9 million by October, then a big 7-8 million selling holiday seems about right.

• It will shift about 60 million software units in 2018 taking it to 100-110 million. Simply because it's a realistic expectation for a console only releasing 3 big games in a year, even if they are huge games.

• I think 90-100 million lifetime seems about right. Nintendo's core franchises won't substitute for what the Wii and Ds had going for it.

• 500-600 million software units lifetime. Seems about right for a 90-100 million selling handheld.

I think that seems reasonable. Pretty much spot on actually. What say you?

 

 

 

Last edited by LethalP - on 26 May 2018