LethalP said:
The Switch gets 3 or 4 big releases a year. Nintendo's franchises have crazy legs and continue to sell, but that isn't enough to compete with a constant stream of big games. Here's the Xbox One software totals 13 months in:
https://web.archive.org/web/20150114075451/http://www.vgchartz.com:80/platform/68/xbox-one
Here's the Switches:
http://www.vgchartz.com/platform/83/nintendo-switch/
47 million for X1 and 50.9 million for Switch. So fair play to Switch for selling more software than Xbox One in the same time frame. But the Switch had 16 million unit sales and Xbox One had 10 million. PS4 was at 18 million and had 81 million software sales (Xbox tie ratio was actually higher at that point). Notice the spread of software sales. Xbox One with 16 1 million sellers and Switch with 8 (PS4 had 26). More games do well on an Xbox than Switch. The Xbox One might not even have 1 10 million seller on VGC this gen, but a larger portion of games sell better on Xbox to make up for it. The Switch is going to shift 10's of millions of Nintendo software and leave everything else in the dust like every generation. And these Nintendo games simply can't make up for the FIFA's, CoD's, BF's, Red Deads, and myriads of third party software that Xbox gets every year.
So the Switch will likely end this year with 30-35 million sales (similar to Xbox One now). But let me tell you this, it's software won't even be half of the 244 million Xbox currently has right now. Pokemon will sell 10-12 million in 2018, Smash likely 8-10 million. But what beyond those will take the Switch to 120 million software? It's currently 70 million units away from that number (half what Xbox sold). It's doable I suppose, but you better bank on crazy Pokemon and Smash sales (which isn't too much to get behind).
The Wii thing, it's just the way it is. Wii didn't sell 500-700k a month in the US just because of Nintendo's staple franchises. I mean, do we have to go into this?
It's true many games will be their best selling entries like Zelda and Mario, probably everything else considered 'core' will be too like Kirby (as we already know), Metroid, Pikmin and stuff of that nature. The same thing happened for Sony this gen probably for similar console mindshare reasons. But I think it's best we define our expectations rather than discuss hypotheticals. What exactly do you project the Switch realisticly doing and why? I'll start.
- It will sell through 17-18 million units this year taking it to around 32 million by 2019. Why do I think that? Looking at the way it's selling now, I expect about 8-9 million by October, then a big 7-8 million selling holiday seems about right.
- It will shift about 60 million software units in 2018 taking it to 100-110 million. Simply because it's a realistic expectation for a console only releasing 3 big games in a year, even if they are huge games.
- I think 90-100 million lifetime seems about right. Nintendo's core franchises won't substitute for what the Wii and Ds had going for it.
- 500-600 million software units lifetime. Seems about right for a 90-100 million selling handheld.
I think that seems reasonable. Pretty much spot on actually. What say you?
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