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LethalP on 28 May 2018
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Bofferbrauer2 said:
LethalP said:

Why did Switch sell more software and had a better tie ratio in it's first year than the 3DS? Was it because it's a Hybrid? Or was it because it got more significant releases in it's first year? Do you think PS and Xbox have higher tie ratios because they are home consoles? Or because they get the lions share of the games in the industry? I'd say the latter. The Switch should have a higher attach rate than the 3DS in the end, simply because it also gets Nintendo's home console franchises. And it's likely to have better support in general. So it all comes down to the amount of games.

This is where my whole thing about Switch and Xbox came up. They both did similar amounts in their first 13 months (X1 = 47 million and Switch = 50.9 million). But Xbox with 10 million units and Switch with 16 million units. The question is, what will Switch do in 2018 all together? Xbox One did 64 million in 2015, if Switch out does that in 2018 it will be in the lead. But saying the tie ratio of PS4 and Switch will end up being similar is crazy.

It all depends on what Switch ends up selling. If it does 80 million, then expect 450 million on VGChartz. If it does 120 million then expect 700+ million. But I also expect Xbox One to reach 450-500 million software sales too. About 300 million by 2019, 360 million by 2020. 400 million by the release of the next Xbox and it crawls to 500 million in the remainder of it's life. It might make it, it might not. But 60-70 million software sales is about what to expect for Xbox One in a year.

 

Well, let's have a look at the games released: Switch got Super Mario Odyssey, TLoZ:BotW, MK8D and Splatoon 2 as big sellers in it's first year. 3DS got Ocarina of Time 3D, Mario Kart 7, Super Mario 3D Land and Nintendogs + Cats in it's first release year. 4 against 4 games, it's a tie. What's more, both got a Zelda, a Mario Jump&Run, a Mario Kart and a remake of a very beloved and critically acclaimed game, So you can't blame it on having more significant releases, as it just isn't true.

Home consoles sell more games because they're home consoles. You can have over a dozen games at home without a problem, but try bringing as many with your handheld anywhere, it's just tedious. Plus, you play normally less on a handheld unless you're constantly on the road. Less playtime means less games played. The Switch, being a hybrid, doesn't have the latter problem and the former is strongly diminished because many just use it as a home console. Attach rate will probably trail down behind XBO and PS4, but not by much.

XBO was down to 55M in terms of software sales compared to well over 60M in 2015 and 2016, and right now the trend looks like it's going down yet again. It needs some big quality exclusives to keep it's sales afloat, otherwise software sales will continue to slump and make it hard to reach even 400M. Unless some big exclusives coming out this year, I wouldn't hold my breath if XBO software sales slide below 50M this year.

Significant releases is relative. None of those games on 3DS were as significant or sold as much as what the Switch got. The Switch has the same advantage the PS4 has this gen with it's exclusives, the positive mindshare resulting in the best selling entries into the franchise. That will indeed help attach ratio no doubt. But the 3DS comparison is actually a bit pointless since we know Switch is already on track to doing significantly more software. But it's also selling faster as well.

The Switch's attach rate is already well below PS4 and Xbox though. In 2014 X1 sold 7.9 million units. It sold 40 million software in that same year. A 5.1 tie ratio. Switch sold 13 million units in 2017, 41 million software in the same year. A 3.15 tie ratio. I definately see higher rate of sales for Switch than the 3DS, but it's going to fall well behind Xbox One. Another thing to take into account with tie ratios is that as a system starts to slow down in hardware sales, it's tie ratios swell. This is especially true with PS and Xbox consoles because of the overall library and the continued annual releases/cross gen games despite slowed down hardware sales. 

There is the chance that the Switch does Gamecube like tie ratios with a hardcore following, but it's current trend and the fact that it's only selling moderately more software than Xbox One despite more than double the hardware sales tells me otherwise. And that's not even taking into account the tie ratio swell. But then tie ratios won't matter if the Switch sells 120 million and Xbox One barely manages 55 million. In which case the Switch will blitz X1 in software. But even realistically speaking, I actually would bet on the Switch selling more software, I just proposed the question 'what if'? It's not like the Switch's software sales are completely leaving X1 in the dust after all.