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Forums - Sales Discussion - EA with PS4/Xbox One install base estimates

OK, let me see if I understand this.  In Jan 29, 2016 EA said: "Our estimate is 55 million units out there, which has exceeded virtually everyone's forecast for the year"  and by that time SONY had said that they had sold 35.9m units. which means that, if EA's numbers were correct back then, the Xbox One had sold around 19 million units.

https://www.theverge.com/2016/1/29/10868370/microsoft-xbox-one-sales-19-million-ea

So now they're telling me that in the next two years the X1 sold only 10m units.  When we already know by the NPDs that in the last two years the X1 has sold at least 8m units on the USA alone.

Looks to me that EA doesn't take their own estimates very seriously. 



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barneystinson69 said:
DonFerrari said:

We never had MS numbers after the nearing 10M shipped... so it doesn't really mean that the shift from 60 to 80% happened all of a sudden... the sales outside of USA can have been wrong in VGC since forever.

Didn't EA "estimate" 19.4 million at the end of 2016? We know the xbox one has sold around 8.5 million units in the following 2 years thanks to the npd in just the us. The ratio was about 60:40 then, what makes you think sales in the rest of the world just stopped?

EA estimate for XBO at the end of 2016 was between 25.6m.



JRPGfan said:
p53sionix said:

Actually, even if their estimates were correct, and you factor in the Japan sales not being counted, it still wouldn't add up.

Playstation - PlaystationJapan + Xbox - XboxJapan = 103m  (According to EA.)

If we say Playstation sold ~70 million, selling 6 million in Japan, and Xbox selling 80k in Japan, we get a figure of 39 million for Xbox which is an overestimate.

73,6m for PS4 right by end of December 2017.... as is the time for the 103m number.

73,6m (Playstation) - (Playstation Japan) -  (xbox japan) = 33,4m? or so for xbox end of 2017.

Then you add in what you expect Xbox to have sold jan, feb, march, april... and you ll have current xbox numbers.

Actually, yeah, if you take the PS4 sales as 73.6 million then it comes out with 35.48 million. (Remembering to add the PS4 Japan and Xbox Japan figures to the 103m figure before subtracting 73.6m).



Maybe they're not counting sales of some regions on asia and east europe,idk. This doesn't look accurate.



Finale said:

Maybe they're not counting sales of some regions on asia and east europe,idk. This doesn't look accurate.

I think we can conclude they're not including the japanese sales as EA's games don't sell too well over there.



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JRPGfan said:
p53sionix said:

Actually, even if their estimates were correct, and you factor in the Japan sales not being counted, it still wouldn't add up.

Playstation - PlaystationJapan + Xbox - XboxJapan = 103m  (According to EA.)

If we say Playstation sold ~70 million, selling 6 million in Japan, and Xbox selling 80k in Japan, we get a figure of 39 million for Xbox which is an overestimate.

73,6m for PS4 right by end of December 2017.... as is the time for the 103m number.

73,6m (Playstation) - (Playstation Japan) -  (xbox japan) = 33,4m? or so for xbox end of 2017.

Then you add in what you expect Xbox to have sold jan, feb, march, april... and you ll have current xbox numbers.

You guys are crazy if you think EA would be quoting a number for PS4 when it is already public knowledge that they sold 73.6 million.  

 

There is literally no way you would know what Xbox has sold and neither would VGChartz estimations. 

 

There is no way that EA wouldn't know either.  We can defend Vgchartz numbers when we know the are pulled from the imagination for Xbox.



Ea probably said 73 million ps4 sold because sony said it first while for Microsoft they went with what they see without adding east europe few other countries and asia for Xbox



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CosmicSex said:
JRPGfan said:

73,6m for PS4 right by end of December 2017.... as is the time for the 103m number.

73,6m (Playstation) - (Playstation Japan) -  (xbox japan) = 33,4m? or so for xbox end of 2017.Then you add in what you expect Xbox to have sold jan, feb, march, april... and you ll have current xbox numbers.

You guys are crazy if you think EA would be quoting a number for PS4 when it is already public knowledge that they sold 73.6 million.  

 

There is literally no way you would know what Xbox has sold and neither would VGChartz estimations. 

 

There is no way that EA wouldn't know either.  We can defend Vgchartz numbers when we know the are pulled from the imagination for Xbox.

EA doesn't know, it's estimating, and so are we. Of course we can't know for sure what the Xbox numbers are.



barneystinson69 said:
Sixteenvolt420 said:

Well, yeah. America is definitely buying way more X1's than any other country. Even if we go by VGChartz estimates.

Of course, but there are other markets the xbox one sells in too. To suggest one market makes up 80% share of any console is rediculous.

What if you are the one who is wrong.   Show me proof of the existence of any country where Xbox is big.  UK is the second biggest and they are losing their too.

 

Microsoft's greatest deception was making anyone think it is bigger than it really is.  For goodness sakes when are we gonna admit that at least half of the sales of the 360 were second purchases.  

 

I love competition but I hate having to create this fake image to make one seem bigger than it is. EA knows what the are talking about more than anyone on this site but we have act like they don't?  For what?



p53sionix said:
CosmicSex said:

You guys are crazy if you think EA would be quoting a number for PS4 when it is already public knowledge that they sold 73.6 million.  

 

There is literally no way you would know what Xbox has sold and neither would VGChartz estimations. 

 

There is no way that EA wouldn't know either.  We can defend Vgchartz numbers when we know the are pulled from the imagination for Xbox.

EA doesn't know, it's estimating, and so are we. Of course we can't know for sure what the Xbox numbers are.

EA estimation is no way as contrived as ours.  You think they would form partnerships with Microsoft without first knowing?  That's not how business works.  You don't for partnerships in utter ignorance.