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Forums - Sales Discussion - EA with PS4/Xbox One install base estimates

JRPGfan said:

ZhugeEX:

"I'm not sure what the reason is for the discrepancy with EA's estimates.

It could be it excludes Pro/One X numbers.
It could be that EA excludes a territory like Japan (they used to do this last generation)
It could be that EA estimates PS4 at a lower number. (Which would be weird given Sony release the official numbers)
It could be that installed base =/= sell through in EA's eyes. So replacement consoles sold wouldn't count and only people actively using consoles would count?

EA's estimates aren't wrong. I'm just fairly certain one of the above things is true.

Ultimately what we do know is PS4 sell through was 73.6m at the end of 2017. Xbox One is less than half of that total which shows the big gap between the two in terms of sales. But that's something that has been known for a long time."

 

^ this could be a explaination right?

If we ignore PS4 + XBO sales in japan, do the numbers EA supplied make sense?

Yep, assuming they left out Japan sales for PS4 that would the estimates up to 108-109 million (5.8 million Japan sales).

So, 108 million - 73.6 million = 34.4 million (give or take a few 100k since these are estimates), which sounds much more like the sales for Xbox One as of December 31st 2017.



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RolStoppable said:
drkohler said:

One thing people here don't seem to grasp is the fact that for Electronic Arts, "install base" is not the same as "consoles sold".
Install base for EA gives them an estimate of how many customers are available to sell software to. We can safely assume that EA thinks (and I think that this is a reasonable assumption), that XBox1 X sales went almost entirely to Old-XBox1 owners. Hence while the number of consoles sold increases, the install base does not. They also neglect the "trickle down" effect of old consoles sold by new X1X owners into the secondary market over time (generating an increasing install base).
In the end Electronic Arts' "install base" logically is lower than "actual consoles sold", likely by a few millions. So unfortunately, this EA statement is no secret path to get to the "precise" sell-through numbers for XBoxes.

It's much more likely that it is simply a bad estimate. There are two ways how EA can estimate:

1. Consoles sold - Here the numbers don't add up because ZhugeEX said that Xbox One was "around 35m" by the end of 2017. The real number is around 108-109m, therefore EA made a bad estimate.

2. Installed base as you say, so PS4 Pro and Xbox One X sales do not count towards the total - While this could explain the estimate of 103m by the end of 2017 (PS4 below 70m, XB1 ~34m for a total of 103m), it leaves the question how PS4 and XB1 are supposed to combine for 27m units in calendar year 2018. That's a number these two consoles cannot possibly reach if PS4 Pro and Xbox One X sales don't count towards installed base, so once again, the conclusion has to be that EA made a bad estimate.

Why wouldn't the Pro and X not count as install base? It's likely Japanese sales being left out since it makes up the 103 to 109 million gap.



Would like to see ZhugEX explain why would Japan sales not count for EA.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Would like to see ZhugEX explain why would Japan sales not count for EA.

Does ea even publish in japan?

Yes fifa 18 with aroubd 80k units



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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LethalP said:
JRPGfan said:

ZhugeEX:

"I'm not sure what the reason is for the discrepancy with EA's estimates.

It could be it excludes Pro/One X numbers.
It could be that EA excludes a territory like Japan (they used to do this last generation)
It could be that EA estimates PS4 at a lower number. (Which would be weird given Sony release the official numbers)
It could be that installed base =/= sell through in EA's eyes. So replacement consoles sold wouldn't count and only people actively using consoles would count?

EA's estimates aren't wrong. I'm just fairly certain one of the above things is true.

Ultimately what we do know is PS4 sell through was 73.6m at the end of 2017. Xbox One is less than half of that total which shows the big gap between the two in terms of sales. But that's something that has been known for a long time."

 

^ this could be a explaination right?

If we ignore PS4 + XBO sales in japan, do the numbers EA supplied make sense?

Yep, assuming they left out Japan sales for PS4 that would the estimates up to 108-109 million (5.8 million Japan sales).

So, 108 million - 73.6 million = 34.4 million (give or take a few 100k since these are estimates), which sounds much more like the sales for Xbox One as of December 31st 2017.

This is what I believe.
EA left out Japan as a market (they have done so before in the past).



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kirby007 said:
DonFerrari said:
Would like to see ZhugEX explain why would Japan sales not count for EA.

Does ea even publish in japan?

Yes fifa 18 with aroubd 80k units

You answered your own question, they sell games on Japan. I bet there are other countries they don't and it wasn't suggested that they keep them out of the count.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Would like to see ZhugEX explain why would Japan sales not count for EA.

Apparently they have excluded them in the past when discussing sales.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Yeah, these estimates are way off. This means that according to EA, xbox one only sold 3 million units in 2017, when it sold more than that in the US alone, according to NPD numbers.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:
Would like to see ZhugEX explain why would Japan sales not count for EA.

Apparently they have excluded them in the past when discussing sales.

And I have no idea why they would do that =p perhaps Winning Eleven makes they look bad in Japanese market.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Xbox One will be outsold by Switch. Its ridiculous to think that we have more Info than EA. At the very least we can say that Microsoft has gone out of its way to hide the numbers from us. EA isn't going to lie to its investors. The have much more reliable information than we do.