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Forums - Sales Discussion - EA with PS4/Xbox One install base estimates

p53sionix on 09 May 2018

The thing I don't get though is why is Xbox One selling so well in the US but doing crap in Europe? And why is Playstation selling so well there, even consistently outselling the Switch?



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JRPGfan on 09 May 2018
p53sionix said:

Actually, even if their estimates were correct, and you factor in the Japan sales not being counted, it still wouldn't add up.

Playstation - PlaystationJapan + Xbox - XboxJapan = 103m  (According to EA.)

If we say Playstation sold ~70 million, selling 6 million in Japan, and Xbox selling 80k in Japan, we get a figure of 39 million for Xbox which is an overestimate.

73,6m for PS4 right by end of December 2017.... as is the time for the 103m number.

73,6m (Playstation) - (Playstation Japan) -  (xbox japan) = 33,4m? or so for xbox end of 2017.

Then you add in what you expect Xbox to have sold jan, feb, march, april... and you ll have current xbox numbers.



barneystinson69 on 09 May 2018
DonFerrari said:
barneystinson69 said:

So xbox sales went from 60% US to 80% all of a sudden? I really don't think it works that way. The xbox one sold 1.5 million units in the UK over the past two year, and Australia and Canada are in the hundreds of thousands at least. If these numbers where true, the xbox one would have sold less than 1 million units in mainland Europe, Latin America, rest of NA, and Asia in the past two years. The Xbox One was already at 2.5 million units in mainland Europe at the beginning of 2016, so please explain to me how it fell off a cliff like that...

Edit: This also assumes us sales where 8 million the last two years. Considering last year was a down year by most consensus estimates, yet still sold 4.2 million in the US, its proboably higher than that  

We never had MS numbers after the nearing 10M shipped... so it doesn't really mean that the shift from 60 to 80% happened all of a sudden... the sales outside of USA can have been wrong in VGC since forever.

Didn't EA "estimate" 19.4 million at the end of 2016? We know the xbox one has sold around 8.5 million units in the following 2 years thanks to the npd in just the us. The ratio was about 60:40 then, what makes you think sales in the rest of the world just stopped?



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

barneystinson69 on 09 May 2018
Sixteenvolt420 said:
barneystinson69 said:

If these numbers are true, then around 80% of xbox sales would have to come from America alone...

Well, yeah. America is definitely buying way more X1's than any other country. Even if we go by VGChartz estimates.

Of course, but there are other markets the xbox one sells in too. To suggest one market makes up 80% share of any console is rediculous.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

chakkra on 09 May 2018

OK, let me see if I understand this.  In Jan 29, 2016 EA said: "Our estimate is 55 million units out there, which has exceeded virtually everyone's forecast for the year"  and by that time SONY had said that they had sold 35.9m units. which means that, if EA's numbers were correct back then, the Xbox One had sold around 19 million units.

https://www.theverge.com/2016/1/29/10868370/microsoft-xbox-one-sales-19-million-ea

So now they're telling me that in the next two years the X1 sold only 10m units.  When we already know by the NPDs that in the last two years the X1 has sold at least 8m units on the USA alone.

Looks to me that EA doesn't take their own estimates very seriously. 



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jason1637 on 09 May 2018
barneystinson69 said:
DonFerrari said:

We never had MS numbers after the nearing 10M shipped... so it doesn't really mean that the shift from 60 to 80% happened all of a sudden... the sales outside of USA can have been wrong in VGC since forever.

Didn't EA "estimate" 19.4 million at the end of 2016? We know the xbox one has sold around 8.5 million units in the following 2 years thanks to the npd in just the us. The ratio was about 60:40 then, what makes you think sales in the rest of the world just stopped?

EA estimate for XBO at the end of 2016 was between 25.6m.



p53sionix on 09 May 2018
JRPGfan said:
p53sionix said:

Actually, even if their estimates were correct, and you factor in the Japan sales not being counted, it still wouldn't add up.

Playstation - PlaystationJapan + Xbox - XboxJapan = 103m  (According to EA.)

If we say Playstation sold ~70 million, selling 6 million in Japan, and Xbox selling 80k in Japan, we get a figure of 39 million for Xbox which is an overestimate.

73,6m for PS4 right by end of December 2017.... as is the time for the 103m number.

73,6m (Playstation) - (Playstation Japan) -  (xbox japan) = 33,4m? or so for xbox end of 2017.

Then you add in what you expect Xbox to have sold jan, feb, march, april... and you ll have current xbox numbers.

Actually, yeah, if you take the PS4 sales as 73.6 million then it comes out with 35.48 million. (Remembering to add the PS4 Japan and Xbox Japan figures to the 103m figure before subtracting 73.6m).



Finale on 09 May 2018

Maybe they're not counting sales of some regions on asia and east europe,idk. This doesn't look accurate.



p53sionix on 09 May 2018
Finale said:

Maybe they're not counting sales of some regions on asia and east europe,idk. This doesn't look accurate.

I think we can conclude they're not including the japanese sales as EA's games don't sell too well over there.



CosmicSex on 09 May 2018
JRPGfan said:
p53sionix said:

Actually, even if their estimates were correct, and you factor in the Japan sales not being counted, it still wouldn't add up.

Playstation - PlaystationJapan + Xbox - XboxJapan = 103m  (According to EA.)

If we say Playstation sold ~70 million, selling 6 million in Japan, and Xbox selling 80k in Japan, we get a figure of 39 million for Xbox which is an overestimate.

73,6m for PS4 right by end of December 2017.... as is the time for the 103m number.

73,6m (Playstation) - (Playstation Japan) -  (xbox japan) = 33,4m? or so for xbox end of 2017.

Then you add in what you expect Xbox to have sold jan, feb, march, april... and you ll have current xbox numbers.

You guys are crazy if you think EA would be quoting a number for PS4 when it is already public knowledge that they sold 73.6 million.  

 

There is literally no way you would know what Xbox has sold and neither would VGChartz estimations. 

 

There is no way that EA wouldn't know either.  We can defend Vgchartz numbers when we know the are pulled from the imagination for Xbox.