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Forums - Sales Discussion - EA with PS4/Xbox One install base estimates

thismeintiel said:
GribbleGrunger said:

I can't believe this myself but Bishopti (once a mod and insider on GAF) has said these figures are accurate.


I do wonder how ZhugeEX has all the numbers to be able to give an accurate sell through (or were his numbers shipped?) We already have Japan's numbers thanks to Media Create, and we know he gets NPD numbers. We do have a tracker for much of EU, but not sure if he actually gets those numbers. Where does he get the others? Could it be that his estimates for those not tracked are overestimated. Personally, I would believe a huge partner like EA, since they undoubtedly get most of the info, and probably talk to MS themselves about consoles shipped/sold when preparing to make a marketing deal. 

If these numbers are true, then around 80% of xbox sales would have to come from America alone...



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

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Sounds much more realistic and in line with software sales than those severely inflated XBox numbers we have here on VGC.



GribbleGrunger said:

I can't believe this myself but Bishopti (once a mod and insider on GAF) has said these figures are accurate.


Didn’t we all know this already? For the whole time after the Scorpio announcement PS4 was outselling X1 by 3:1. Almost 1,5 years. No way the gap would be so small as VGC would us make to believe.



JRPGfan said:

ZhugeEX:

"I'm not sure what the reason is for the discrepancy with EA's estimates.

It could be it excludes Pro/One X numbers.
It could be that EA excludes a territory like Japan (they used to do this last generation)
It could be that EA estimates PS4 at a lower number. (Which would be weird given Sony release the official numbers)
It could be that installed base =/= sell through in EA's eyes. So replacement consoles sold wouldn't count and only people actively using consoles would count?

EA's estimates aren't wrong. I'm just fairly certain one of the above things is true.

Ultimately what we do know is PS4 sell through was 73.6m at the end of 2017. Xbox One is less than half of that total which shows the big gap between the two in terms of sales. But that's something that has been known for a long time."

 

^ this could be a explaination right?

If we ignore PS4 + XBO sales in japan, do the numbers EA supplied make sense?

If we ignored Japan, the estimate for the end of 2017 would make sense, but the estimate for 2018 (27m combined) would be too bullish. In this case, however, only the forecast would be bad while the estimate for the end of 2017 would be fine, so that explanation is without a doubt better than drkohler's.

If we consider Sony's forecast for the fiscal year (16m) and estimate the sell-through for the PS4 in calendar year 2018 at 18m, we are left with 16m after removing ~2m units that will have been sold in Japan. The Xbox One would have to sell 11m in 2018, a notable uptick compared to previous years. Like I said in the previous paragraph, a bullish forecast.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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barneystinson69 said:
thismeintiel said:

I do wonder how ZhugeEX has all the numbers to be able to give an accurate sell through (or were his numbers shipped?) We already have Japan's numbers thanks to Media Create, and we know he gets NPD numbers. We do have a tracker for much of EU, but not sure if he actually gets those numbers. Where does he get the others? Could it be that his estimates for those not tracked are overestimated. Personally, I would believe a huge partner like EA, since they undoubtedly get most of the info, and probably talk to MS themselves about consoles shipped/sold when preparing to make a marketing deal. 

If these numbers are true, then around 80% of xbox sales would have to come from America alone...

80% would be ~24M, if we say they are slightly off and it's 30M.  Even using VGC's 20.28M, that's 67.6%.  That's not that hard to believe, given that outside of US, UK, and maybe AU, the XBO has basically been non-existent as of late. 



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thismeintiel said:
barneystinson69 said:

If these numbers are true, then around 80% of xbox sales would have to come from America alone...

80% would be ~24M, if we say they are slightly off and it's 30M.  Even using VGC's 20.28M, that's 67.6%.  That's not that hard to believe, given that outside of US, UK, and maybe AU, the XBO has basically been non-existent as of late. 

So xbox sales went from 60% US to 80% all of a sudden? I really don't think it works that way. The xbox one sold 1.5 million units in the UK over the past two year, and Australia and Canada are in the hundreds of thousands at least. If these numbers where true, the xbox one would have sold less than 1 million units in mainland Europe, Latin America, rest of NA, and Asia in the past two years. The Xbox One was already at 2.5 million units in mainland Europe at the beginning of 2016, so please explain to me how it fell off a cliff like that...

Edit: This also assumes us sales where 8 million the last two years. Considering last year was a down year by most consensus estimates, yet still sold 4.2 million in the US, its proboably higher than that  

Last edited by barneystinson69 - on 09 May 2018

Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Seems like Xbox is doing worse than VGC have it.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

barneystinson69 said:
thismeintiel said:

80% would be ~24M, if we say they are slightly off and it's 30M.  Even using VGC's 20.28M, that's 67.6%.  That's not that hard to believe, given that outside of US, UK, and maybe AU, the XBO has basically been non-existent as of late. 

So xbox sales went from 60% US to 80% all of a sudden? I really don't think it works that way. The xbox one sold 1.5 million units in the UK over the past two year, and Australia and Canada are in the hundreds of thousands at least. If these numbers where true, the xbox one would have sold less than 1 million units in mainland Europe, Latin America, rest of NA, and Asia in the past two years. The Xbox One was already at 2.5 million units in mainland Europe at the beginning of 2016, so please explain to me how it fell off a cliff like that...

Edit: This also assumes us sales where 8 million the last two years. Considering last year was a down year by most consensus estimates, yet still sold 4.2 million in the US, its proboably higher than that  

We never had MS numbers after the nearing 10M shipped... so it doesn't really mean that the shift from 60 to 80% happened all of a sudden... the sales outside of USA can have been wrong in VGC since forever.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

jason1637 said:
Seems a bit low for XBO. Didn't they estimate around 26m for at end of 2016 so that's like only 3m in a year which is probably wrong since it sold like 4.2m last year in the US according to NPD.

Yeah EA estimated 25.6 million by December 31st 2016 for Xbox One. We are supposed to believe they only sold 3.8 million Xbox's in the whole of 2017? That's about how many they did in the US alone I'm pretty sure...



dx11332sega said:

I think 2017 was worst year for Xbox one sales wise compared to years before it . but I think this year would be one of Xbox one better year I think because the official NPD are giving out high Xbox one sales numbers I believe Xbox one should hit 45 million by end of 2018 .BTW I'm not really good at sales 

If these numbers are true (which I don't think they are), that's 29.4 million sold. For it to reach 45 million by the end of the year it would have to sell more than 15 million in 2018. Not even the 360 had a peak year that big.