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Forums - Sales Discussion - EA with PS4/Xbox One install base estimates

DonFerrari on 09 May 2018

Seems like Xbox is doing worse than VGC have it.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari on 09 May 2018
barneystinson69 said:
thismeintiel said:

80% would be ~24M, if we say they are slightly off and it's 30M.  Even using VGC's 20.28M, that's 67.6%.  That's not that hard to believe, given that outside of US, UK, and maybe AU, the XBO has basically been non-existent as of late. 

So xbox sales went from 60% US to 80% all of a sudden? I really don't think it works that way. The xbox one sold 1.5 million units in the UK over the past two year, and Australia and Canada are in the hundreds of thousands at least. If these numbers where true, the xbox one would have sold less than 1 million units in mainland Europe, Latin America, rest of NA, and Asia in the past two years. The Xbox One was already at 2.5 million units in mainland Europe at the beginning of 2016, so please explain to me how it fell off a cliff like that...

Edit: This also assumes us sales where 8 million the last two years. Considering last year was a down year by most consensus estimates, yet still sold 4.2 million in the US, its proboably higher than that  

We never had MS numbers after the nearing 10M shipped... so it doesn't really mean that the shift from 60 to 80% happened all of a sudden... the sales outside of USA can have been wrong in VGC since forever.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

LethalP on 09 May 2018
jason1637 said:
Seems a bit low for XBO. Didn't they estimate around 26m for at end of 2016 so that's like only 3m in a year which is probably wrong since it sold like 4.2m last year in the US according to NPD.

Yeah EA estimated 25.6 million by December 31st 2016 for Xbox One. We are supposed to believe they only sold 3.8 million Xbox's in the whole of 2017? That's about how many they did in the US alone I'm pretty sure...



LethalP on 09 May 2018
dx11332sega said:

I think 2017 was worst year for Xbox one sales wise compared to years before it . but I think this year would be one of Xbox one better year I think because the official NPD are giving out high Xbox one sales numbers I believe Xbox one should hit 45 million by end of 2018 .BTW I'm not really good at sales 

If these numbers are true (which I don't think they are), that's 29.4 million sold. For it to reach 45 million by the end of the year it would have to sell more than 15 million in 2018. Not even the 360 had a peak year that big.



LethalP on 09 May 2018
JRPGfan said:

ZhugeEX:

"I'm not sure what the reason is for the discrepancy with EA's estimates.

It could be it excludes Pro/One X numbers.
It could be that EA excludes a territory like Japan (they used to do this last generation)
It could be that EA estimates PS4 at a lower number. (Which would be weird given Sony release the official numbers)
It could be that installed base =/= sell through in EA's eyes. So replacement consoles sold wouldn't count and only people actively using consoles would count?

EA's estimates aren't wrong. I'm just fairly certain one of the above things is true.

Ultimately what we do know is PS4 sell through was 73.6m at the end of 2017. Xbox One is less than half of that total which shows the big gap between the two in terms of sales. But that's something that has been known for a long time."

 

^ this could be a explaination right?

If we ignore PS4 + XBO sales in japan, do the numbers EA supplied make sense?

Yep, assuming they left out Japan sales for PS4 that would the estimates up to 108-109 million (5.8 million Japan sales).

So, 108 million - 73.6 million = 34.4 million (give or take a few 100k since these are estimates), which sounds much more like the sales for Xbox One as of December 31st 2017.



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LethalP on 09 May 2018
RolStoppable said:
drkohler said:

One thing people here don't seem to grasp is the fact that for Electronic Arts, "install base" is not the same as "consoles sold".
Install base for EA gives them an estimate of how many customers are available to sell software to. We can safely assume that EA thinks (and I think that this is a reasonable assumption), that XBox1 X sales went almost entirely to Old-XBox1 owners. Hence while the number of consoles sold increases, the install base does not. They also neglect the "trickle down" effect of old consoles sold by new X1X owners into the secondary market over time (generating an increasing install base).
In the end Electronic Arts' "install base" logically is lower than "actual consoles sold", likely by a few millions. So unfortunately, this EA statement is no secret path to get to the "precise" sell-through numbers for XBoxes.

It's much more likely that it is simply a bad estimate. There are two ways how EA can estimate:

1. Consoles sold - Here the numbers don't add up because ZhugeEX said that Xbox One was "around 35m" by the end of 2017. The real number is around 108-109m, therefore EA made a bad estimate.

2. Installed base as you say, so PS4 Pro and Xbox One X sales do not count towards the total - While this could explain the estimate of 103m by the end of 2017 (PS4 below 70m, XB1 ~34m for a total of 103m), it leaves the question how PS4 and XB1 are supposed to combine for 27m units in calendar year 2018. That's a number these two consoles cannot possibly reach if PS4 Pro and Xbox One X sales don't count towards installed base, so once again, the conclusion has to be that EA made a bad estimate.

Why wouldn't the Pro and X not count as install base? It's likely Japanese sales being left out since it makes up the 103 to 109 million gap.



DonFerrari on 09 May 2018

Would like to see ZhugEX explain why would Japan sales not count for EA.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

kirby007 on 09 May 2018
DonFerrari said:
Would like to see ZhugEX explain why would Japan sales not count for EA.

Does ea even publish in japan?

Yes fifa 18 with aroubd 80k units



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JRPGfan on 09 May 2018
LethalP said:
JRPGfan said:

ZhugeEX:

"I'm not sure what the reason is for the discrepancy with EA's estimates.

It could be it excludes Pro/One X numbers.
It could be that EA excludes a territory like Japan (they used to do this last generation)
It could be that EA estimates PS4 at a lower number. (Which would be weird given Sony release the official numbers)
It could be that installed base =/= sell through in EA's eyes. So replacement consoles sold wouldn't count and only people actively using consoles would count?

EA's estimates aren't wrong. I'm just fairly certain one of the above things is true.

Ultimately what we do know is PS4 sell through was 73.6m at the end of 2017. Xbox One is less than half of that total which shows the big gap between the two in terms of sales. But that's something that has been known for a long time."

 

^ this could be a explaination right?

If we ignore PS4 + XBO sales in japan, do the numbers EA supplied make sense?

Yep, assuming they left out Japan sales for PS4 that would the estimates up to 108-109 million (5.8 million Japan sales).

So, 108 million - 73.6 million = 34.4 million (give or take a few 100k since these are estimates), which sounds much more like the sales for Xbox One as of December 31st 2017.

This is what I believe.
EA left out Japan as a market (they have done so before in the past).



DonFerrari on 09 May 2018
kirby007 said:
DonFerrari said:
Would like to see ZhugEX explain why would Japan sales not count for EA.

Does ea even publish in japan?

Yes fifa 18 with aroubd 80k units

You answered your own question, they sell games on Japan. I bet there are other countries they don't and it wasn't suggested that they keep them out of the count.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."