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Forums - Movies Discussion - How High Will Avengers:IW Soar? (Currently @ ~$2.04B+)

AsGryffynn said:

Actually, he'd be right either way. DC movies have been doing great, but everyone calls them a flop because they aren't the Avengers. Naturally, some people start getting annoyed when the bar is set at "the most popular franchise to date that is clearly overhyped". 

I liked the MCU for a while, then Civil War happened and I rage quitted. Given how GotG went, I was probably doing the right thing... 

Hint: Splashes of humor are alright. Enough humor to get a Comedy tag isn't. 

BREAKING: The entire comedy genre sucks! Stop making comedy movies people!



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AsGryffynn said:
Faelco said:

But he's saying so while filming Avatar 2, 3 and 4. Very high level of hypocrisy. And he didn't complain about blockbusters but about superhero movies only IIRC. It's easy to understand him. The interest for Avatar sequels is already low, so he wants less competition to lower the flop chances. The only marketing plan for Avatar 2 so far is "the sequel of the biggest movie ever", it would be awful for him to lose that...

Actually, he'd be right either way. DC movies have been doing great, but everyone calls them a flop because they aren't the Avengers. Naturally, some people start getting annoyed when the bar is set at "the most popular franchise to date that is clearly overhyped". 

I liked the MCU for a while, then Civil War happened and I rage quitted. Given how GotG went, I was probably doing the right thing... 

 

Hint: Splashes of humor are alright. Enough humor to get a Comedy tag isn't. 

Well, we have different tastes. I watch MCU movies to have fun. And for me, laughing is a way of having fun. So I love movies like GotG or Thor Ragnarok, in which you have jokes, fights, a bit of drama, and then once again jokes and fights. If I want to watch something serious, deep or thought provoking, I'll watch something else. MCU movies are IMO the perfect "fun to watch" movies.

And DC movies are called flops both because their BO is a lot lower than MCU, and because the movies are also pretty badly received for the most part. It's as usual in comics a "battle" between Marvel and DC, and if Marvel wins, then DC loses. That's the usual image.



AsGryffynn said:
Faelco said:

But he's saying so while filming Avatar 2, 3 and 4. Very high level of hypocrisy. And he didn't complain about blockbusters but about superhero movies only IIRC. It's easy to understand him. The interest for Avatar sequels is already low, so he wants less competition to lower the flop chances. The only marketing plan for Avatar 2 so far is "the sequel of the biggest movie ever", it would be awful for him to lose that...

Actually, he'd be right either way. DC movies have been doing great, but everyone calls them a flop because they aren't the Avengers. Naturally, some people start getting annoyed when the bar is set at "the most popular franchise to date that is clearly overhyped". 

I liked the MCU for a while, then Civil War happened and I rage quitted. Given how GotG went, I was probably doing the right thing... 

 

Hint: Splashes of humor are alright. Enough humor to get a Comedy tag isn't. 

I'm pretty sure that DC/Warner Bros is also calling them a flop.  The movie they were hellbent on getting on screen as quickly as possible with as little build up and audience investment (Justice League) was the lowest grossing of the DCEU.  Imagine if Avengers had grossed less than Iron Man.  Or if Civil War had grossed less than Thor 2.  As you build your brand, your box office take is supposed to increase to show that you are bringing in more fans, not just your hardcore legion who will sit through any hack edited crap you throw up on the screen.  Justice League was supposed to be a 2 part movie, just like Infinity Wars, but the return was so bad that DC/Warner Bros have cancelled the follow up.  They announced making a departure from the "cinematic universe" format in order to concentrate on stand alone films (like Wonder Woman).  So no, they were not doing great by any metric.  600+ million may sound like a lot to a lay person, but when you take into consideration that Sony cancelled an entire planned Spider-Man universe of films just because they were "only grossing 700 million per film", then yeah, the DCEU was a flop.



AsGryffynn said:
Faelco said:

But he's saying so while filming Avatar 2, 3 and 4. Very high level of hypocrisy. And he didn't complain about blockbusters but about superhero movies only IIRC. It's easy to understand him. The interest for Avatar sequels is already low, so he wants less competition to lower the flop chances. The only marketing plan for Avatar 2 so far is "the sequel of the biggest movie ever", it would be awful for him to lose that...

Actually, he'd be right either way. DC movies have been doing great, but everyone calls them a flop because they aren't the Avengers. Naturally, some people start getting annoyed when the bar is set at "the most popular franchise to date that is clearly overhyped". 

I liked the MCU for a while, then Civil War happened and I rage quitted. Given how GotG went, I was probably doing the right thing... 

 

Hint: Splashes of humor are alright. Enough humor to get a Comedy tag isn't. 

They're called flops because they perform poorly compared to their production and marketing budgets.  If you take a look at them, there's only one that did great (WW), one did good (MoS), two were meh results (BvS and SS), and one was an actual flop (JL.)  Unfortunately for them, the one that flopped was the one that should have done the best, as it was their Avengers film.  However, it actually did worse of all the DCEU films, not making enough to cover its budget.  It's why there was a shakeup at DC Film after the results came in.



I think that after just three weekends at the box office, plus one in China, Infinity War is going to be pretty close to taking the number 10 spot on all time worldwide BO.



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I think it's going end up over 700 million domestically and around 1.1 billion at the foreign box office for a total of 1.8 billion roughly at the end of its run.



Mordred11 said:
pikashoe said:

It's still making more money daily than the 1st avengers, which made around 250 million more from the same point in its box office run. If IW continues to track agead it will easily be over 700 million. But i agree that it won't hit 800 million.

The first avengers movie had less competition and was less frontloaded than Infinity War will end up being. IW is a sequel and is burning up demand faster.

You do realize that IW's opening weekend was $55M higher than Black Panther's OW, but IW's 2nd weekend #s that just came in are only 900k bigger than BP's 2nd weekend, right? IW will start losing in daily numbers to Black Panther today, and the later will eventually close the gap. This movie is definitely not gonna be " easily over 700M ".

EDIT: It actually started losing to Black Panther 2 days ago. BP's 2nd Saturday and Sunday were bigger. IW only had Friday over BP. If this movie hits $700M, which I have no reason to believe it will, it's gonna be a loooong stretch. Not gonna be easy at all.

So what are your thoughts now? Sunday was upped to over a million ahead of BP and it's remained ahead for monday and Tuesday. 

At the moment it's legs are very similar to BP's, with similar % percentage drops. I think next week BP will start closing the gap but I still feel that IW has a very good chance at hitting the 700 million mark.



pikashoe said:
Mordred11 said:

The first avengers movie had less competition and was less frontloaded than Infinity War will end up being. IW is a sequel and is burning up demand faster.

You do realize that IW's opening weekend was $55M higher than Black Panther's OW, but IW's 2nd weekend #s that just came in are only 900k bigger than BP's 2nd weekend, right? IW will start losing in daily numbers to Black Panther today, and the later will eventually close the gap. This movie is definitely not gonna be " easily over 700M ".

EDIT: It actually started losing to Black Panther 2 days ago. BP's 2nd Saturday and Sunday were bigger. IW only had Friday over BP. If this movie hits $700M, which I have no reason to believe it will, it's gonna be a loooong stretch. Not gonna be easy at all.

So what are your thoughts now? Sunday was upped to over a million ahead of BP and it's remained ahead for monday and Tuesday. 

At the moment it's legs are very similar to BP's, with similar % percentage drops. I think next week BP will start closing the gap but I still feel that IW has a very good chance at hitting the 700 million mark.

Yea, I think late in the game, BP is going to start outperforming IW, mainly due to competition.  However, even if it starts slightly underperforming against BP, its going to take a little awhile for it to eat through that $50M+ gap its created.  It should end up pretty darn close to $700M, if it doesn't hit it.

Also, I think your prediction of $1.1B at the FBO is going to be too low.  It's tracking for an opening of $200M+ in China this weekend.  I think it's going to be pretty darn close to $1.1B, maybe even hitting it, after this weekend.



thismeintiel said:
pikashoe said:

So what are your thoughts now? Sunday was upped to over a million ahead of BP and it's remained ahead for monday and Tuesday. 

At the moment it's legs are very similar to BP's, with similar % percentage drops. I think next week BP will start closing the gap but I still feel that IW has a very good chance at hitting the 700 million mark.

Yea, I think late in the game, BP is going to start outperforming IW, mainly due to competition.  However, even if it starts slightly underperforming against BP, its going to take a little awhile for it to eat through that $50M+ gap its created.  It should end up pretty darn close to $700M, if it doesn't hit it.

Also, I think your prediction of $1.1B at the FBO is going to be too low.  It's tracking for an opening of $200M+ in China this weekend.  I think it's going to be pretty darn close to $1.1B, maybe even hitting it, after this weekend.

I was just basing it on how age of ultron did in China. I wasn't aware of how it was tracking in China. I'll boost the FBO to 1.25-1.3 billion. 



Weekend estimates are in. Thanks to a $200M+ opening in China, IW now sits at $1.607B WW in just 3 weeks.