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Forums - Movies & TV - How High Will Avengers:IW Soar? (Currently @ ~$2.04B+)

thismeintiel on 09 May 2018
pikashoe said:
Mordred11 said:

The first avengers movie had less competition and was less frontloaded than Infinity War will end up being. IW is a sequel and is burning up demand faster.

You do realize that IW's opening weekend was $55M higher than Black Panther's OW, but IW's 2nd weekend #s that just came in are only 900k bigger than BP's 2nd weekend, right? IW will start losing in daily numbers to Black Panther today, and the later will eventually close the gap. This movie is definitely not gonna be " easily over 700M ".

EDIT: It actually started losing to Black Panther 2 days ago. BP's 2nd Saturday and Sunday were bigger. IW only had Friday over BP. If this movie hits $700M, which I have no reason to believe it will, it's gonna be a loooong stretch. Not gonna be easy at all.

So what are your thoughts now? Sunday was upped to over a million ahead of BP and it's remained ahead for monday and Tuesday. 

At the moment it's legs are very similar to BP's, with similar % percentage drops. I think next week BP will start closing the gap but I still feel that IW has a very good chance at hitting the 700 million mark.

Yea, I think late in the game, BP is going to start outperforming IW, mainly due to competition.  However, even if it starts slightly underperforming against BP, its going to take a little awhile for it to eat through that $50M+ gap its created.  It should end up pretty darn close to $700M, if it doesn't hit it.

Also, I think your prediction of $1.1B at the FBO is going to be too low.  It's tracking for an opening of $200M+ in China this weekend.  I think it's going to be pretty darn close to $1.1B, maybe even hitting it, after this weekend.



 

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pikashoe on 09 May 2018
thismeintiel said:
pikashoe said:

So what are your thoughts now? Sunday was upped to over a million ahead of BP and it's remained ahead for monday and Tuesday. 

At the moment it's legs are very similar to BP's, with similar % percentage drops. I think next week BP will start closing the gap but I still feel that IW has a very good chance at hitting the 700 million mark.

Yea, I think late in the game, BP is going to start outperforming IW, mainly due to competition.  However, even if it starts slightly underperforming against BP, its going to take a little awhile for it to eat through that $50M+ gap its created.  It should end up pretty darn close to $700M, if it doesn't hit it.

Also, I think your prediction of $1.1B at the FBO is going to be too low.  It's tracking for an opening of $200M+ in China this weekend.  I think it's going to be pretty darn close to $1.1B, maybe even hitting it, after this weekend.

I was just basing it on how age of ultron did in China. I wasn't aware of how it was tracking in China. I'll boost the FBO to 1.25-1.3 billion. 



thismeintiel on 13 May 2018

Weekend estimates are in. Thanks to a $200M+ opening in China, IW now sits at $1.607B WW in just 3 weeks.



 

elazz on 13 May 2018
mZuzek said:
thismeintiel said:
IW now sits at $1.607B WW in just 3 weeks.

Actually lol'd at this. These numbers are just stupid.

And how funny it may seems it is correct. In China it will probably finish at 400m so then it needs another 200m ww to reach 2b dollars. Even with the upcoming competition it seems plausible for it to become the 4th ever movie to reach that number. Also it will become the 4th highest grossing ever in just a couple days. 



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areason on 13 May 2018

I don't get how such a movie is doing so well.

I haven't seen a villain this bad since the last DC movie.



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thismeintiel on 13 May 2018
mZuzek said:
areason said:
I don't get how such a movie is doing so well.

I haven't seen a villain this bad since the last DC movie.

Yes, you're in your right to be wrong.

Infinity War was always going to be one of the top-grossing movies ever. It would get to $1.5b if it sucked, this isn't surprising at all.

Definitely disagree with him. These last two Marvel films have been praised for some of the best villains in recent comic book movie history. And the fact that they juggled more than a dozen characters so well is a feat within itself. This movie deserves everything it's making. 



 

thismeintiel on 13 May 2018

Just a few tidbits I wanted to add.

IW is now #8 on the all time Top 10 for DBO. #5 on the all time Top 10 for WW BO, pushing TLJ out of the Top 10.

At this point in time, TFA was at ~$1.53B WW. IW is ahead of it by ~$77M.



 

PAOerfulone on 14 May 2018

When it comes to the Foreign Box Offices.
If we compare to Avengers 1 and Age of Ultron:
Avengers 1 did 20.7% of its Foreign numbers in its Opening Weekend.
Age of Ultron did 21.3% of its Foreign numbers in its Opening Weekend.

If Infinity War were to follow that trend with the Foreign Opening Weekend it had at ~$382 million that would put its Final Foreign numbers somewhere between $1.79 Billion - $1.85 Billion
Even if it's rate was at 26%, which would be considerably above Avengers 1 and Age of Ultron, that would put Infinity War's Foreign numbers at $1.47 Billion

There's no telling where Infinity War will finish at the end of its run. But, in my opinion, I think $2 billion is all but guaranteed.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=marvel0518.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=avengers2.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=avengers11.htm



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thismeintiel on 14 May 2018
PAOerfulone said:
When it comes to the Foreign Box Offices.
If we compare to Avengers 1 and Age of Ultron:
Avengers 1 did 20.7% of its Foreign numbers in its Opening Weekend.
Age of Ultron did 21.3% of its Foreign numbers in its Opening Weekend.

If Infinity War were to follow that trend with the Foreign Opening Weekend it had at ~$382 million that would put its Final Foreign numbers somewhere between $1.79 Billion - $1.85 Billion
Even if it's rate was at 26%, which would be considerably above Avengers 1 and Age of Ultron, that would put Infinity War's Foreign numbers at $1.47 Billion

There's no telling where Infinity War will finish at the end of its run. But, in my opinion, I think $2 billion is all but guaranteed.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=marvel0518.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=avengers2.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=avengers11.htm

It's crazy to think that its FBO may match the entire WW take of the first Avengers film.  But, yea, considering that its final China BO should equal ~$400M, that alone wold put it at $1.807B.  So, $2B+ doesn't seem out of touch.



 

areason on 14 May 2018
spurgeonryan said:
areason said:
I don't get how such a movie is doing so well.

I haven't seen a villain this bad since the last DC movie.

Your comparing Thanos to whoever that guy was in Justice League that was easily trounced by Superman alone?

So what?

Thanos isn't a likeable villain, he isn't admirable at all.

He basically fights for the same nonsense that we've seen over and over again, so called "balance" that doesn't even affect him.