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Forums - Movies Discussion - How High Will Avengers:IW Soar? (Currently @ ~$2.04B+)

pikashoe said:
Mordred11 said:
With current tracking, Infinity War is definitely NOT heading towards your $807M domestic figure. In fact, it's not even reaching $700M. It's expected to finish a bit below Black Panther at this point.

It's still making more money daily than the 1st avengers, which made around 250 million more from the same point in its box office run. If IW continues to track agead it will easily be over 700 million. But i agree that it won't hit 800 million.

Keep in mind the $807M is just based on how much it has overperformed BP at this point in time.  I agree that it is going to start to fall in time, but that it should pass BP.

Mordred11 said:
pikashoe said:

It's still making more money daily than the 1st avengers, which made around 250 million more from the same point in its box office run. If IW continues to track agead it will easily be over 700 million. But i agree that it won't hit 800 million.

The first avengers movie had less competition and was less frontloaded than Infinity War will end up being. IW is a sequel and is burning up demand faster.

You do realize that IW's opening weekend was $55M higher than Black Panther's OW, but IW's 2nd weekend #s that just came in are only 900k bigger than BP's 2nd weekend, right? IW will start losing in daily numbers to Black Panther today, and the later will eventually close the gap. This movie is definitely not gonna be " easily over 700M ".

EDIT: It actually started losing to Black Panther 2 days ago. BP's 2nd Saturday and Sunday were bigger. IW only had Friday over BP. If this movie hits $700M, which I have no reason to believe it will, it's gonna be a loooong stretch. Not gonna be easy at all.

Keep in mind that the numbers we have are just estimates.  Ones that Disney/Marvel puts out mid-Sun.  There's a good shot that they have underestimated the weekend.  We'll have to see when actuals come out later today.

Faelco said:
AsGryffynn said:

Not lost on me, but if Lord Blockbuster says we have to many of his namesakes, odds are he has a point... 

But he's saying so while filming Avatar 2, 3 and 4. Very high level of hypocrisy. And he didn't complain about blockbusters but about superhero movies only IIRC. It's easy to understand him. The interest for Avatar sequels is already low, so he wants less competition to lower the flop chances. The only marketing plan for Avatar 2 so far is "the sequel of the biggest movie ever", it would be awful for him to lose that...

Exactly.  And the only reason Avatar did as well as it did was because of special effects/new 3D hype.  That's what the movie was pushed on.  There's a reason SW is an iconic series with characters that are this well known, while no one even talks about Avatar in general discussion.  No one knows the characters' names.  Or quotes lines from the film.  No one is scrambling to dress up like a Navi for Halloween.  Speaking of Navi, I would bet that only half the people who watched the movie even remember that's the name of the alien race in the film.  That film is only talked about when speaking about how much it made.

Mr.Playstation said:

I think Avengers:IW is a great representation of  the disadvantages of having such a cinematic universe. It will receive a lot of support from those invested in the universe, but others who didn't hop on the train early on will avoid the movie due to a fear of getting lost.

Same goes for SW. It's the reason why Avatar did so well at the Box Office. It was a completely new movie with absoloutely no prior lore.

That's not why Avatar performed so well.  See above.



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thismeintiel said: 

Exactly.  And the only reason Avatar did as well as it did was because of special effects/new 3D hype.  That's what the movie was pushed on.  There's a reason SW is an iconic series with characters that are this well known, while no one even talks about Avatar in general discussion.  No one knows the characters' names.  Or quotes lines from the film.  No one is scrambling to dress up like a Navi for Halloween.  Speaking of Navi, I would bet that only half the people who watched the movie even remember that's the name of the alien race in the film.  That film is only talked about when speaking about how much it made.

Yes. As an example all 6 members of my family went to see Avatar at least once each. But I'm sure that none of us will go see Avatar 2. I'm the only one knowing that there will be an Avatar 2, the others don't care at all anyway. It was amazing to see 3D for the first time and it was a great technical demo. But the movie itself has never been considered a great movie, just a live 3D version of Space Pocahontas...



Faelco said:
thismeintiel said: 

Exactly.  And the only reason Avatar did as well as it did was because of special effects/new 3D hype.  That's what the movie was pushed on.  There's a reason SW is an iconic series with characters that are this well known, while no one even talks about Avatar in general discussion.  No one knows the characters' names.  Or quotes lines from the film.  No one is scrambling to dress up like a Navi for Halloween.  Speaking of Navi, I would bet that only half the people who watched the movie even remember that's the name of the alien race in the film.  That film is only talked about when speaking about how much it made.

Yes. As an example all 6 members of my family went to see Avatar at least once each. But I'm sure that none of us will go see Avatar 2. I'm the only one knowing that there will be an Avatar 2, the others don't care at all anyway. It was amazing to see 3D for the first time and it was a great technical demo. But the movie itself has never been considered a great movie, just a live 3D version of Space Pocahontas...

Yep. And that's not even taking into account that the sequel is a decade too late. Which makes me wonder why Cameron believes he can finish out the rest of his life making Avatar movies. He and the movie studios are in for a big shock when the sequel comes out. I think it may cross $1B just on curiosity. But, it's going to do, at most, half of what the first one did. And unless it is some kind of masterpiece, the following sequels will continue to do less.



mZuzek said:
thismeintiel said:

Personally, I'd switch out BP with Thor: Ragnarok. I just think Ragnarok was a great balance of action and comedy. BP was good, but there were some parts that lagged. 

Yes, you are wrong in my book.

I think Ragnarok is vastly overrated by fans, it would probably barely get into my top 10. Black Panther on the other hand, is one of the best movies I've ever seen.

Lol.

See, that's exactly how I feel about BP.  It had some great moments, but as a whole, it was't a great film.  Good, but not great.



Angelus said:
AsGryffynn said:
I will be happy if God of Cinematography James Cameron's remarks are finally honored and IW crashes and burns for Marvel, prompting them to either take a break or leave altogether.

We truly need a breather from Blockbusters...

The irony.....

This x 1,000,000



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thismeintiel said: 
Mordred11 said:

The first avengers movie had less competition and was less frontloaded than Infinity War will end up being. IW is a sequel and is burning up demand faster.

You do realize that IW's opening weekend was $55M higher than Black Panther's OW, but IW's 2nd weekend #s that just came in are only 900k bigger than BP's 2nd weekend, right? IW will start losing in daily numbers to Black Panther today, and the later will eventually close the gap. This movie is definitely not gonna be " easily over 700M ".

EDIT: It actually started losing to Black Panther 2 days ago. BP's 2nd Saturday and Sunday were bigger. IW only had Friday over BP. If this movie hits $700M, which I have no reason to believe it will, it's gonna be a loooong stretch. Not gonna be easy at all.

Keep in mind that the numbers we have are just estimates.  Ones that Disney/Marvel puts out mid-Sun.  There's a good shot that they have underestimated the weekend.  We'll have to see when actuals come out later today.

Lol, I've been closely watching the box office for 15 years. I am aware they are estimates, but Sunday numbers are the easiest to predict and thus the weekend "estimates" are always pretty close to actuals. Don't expect much of a difference when actuals kick in.



Actuals are in. IW did $114.77M at the DBO, bringing its DBO total to $453.11M. It now sits at $714.6M at the FBO, for a WW total of $1.168B after just two weekends.

So far, IW has been outperforming BP by 12.3% at the DBO. If this continues, IW would end its DBO run at ~$784.03M. If the FBO percentage holds, it would end its WW run with $2.02B. Of course, two things to consider. One, the performance against BP will decrease as the weeks go on, since while it is outperforming BP still, it not by as much as opening weekend. And two, the percentage that FBO represents will shoot up a decent amount once it opens in China, as it is tracking for a huge opening there. Possibly $200M+.



mZuzek said:
thismeintiel said:

Personally, I'd switch out BP with Thor: Ragnarok. I just think Ragnarok was a great balance of action and comedy. BP was good, but there were some parts that lagged. 

Yes, you are wrong in my book.

I think Ragnarok is vastly overrated by fans, it would probably barely get into my top 10. Black Panther on the other hand, is one of the best movies I've ever seen.

We're total opposites - I thought BP was vastly overrated (possibly because it had so much hype built up before I saw it about 3 weeks after it was out).  I also think Guardians 2 is way too far over the top, so it would be nowhere near my top 5. Mine would look something like 1. Winter Soldier 2. Guardians 3. Thor: Ragnorok 4. Avengers 5. Civil War/Avengers 3

The good thing is, Marvel has put out enough movies that we can all have our favorites...



Owner of PS4 Pro, Xbox One, Switch, PS Vita, and 3DS

epicurean said:
mZuzek said:

Yes, you are wrong in my book.

I think Ragnarok is vastly overrated by fans, it would probably barely get into my top 10. Black Panther on the other hand, is one of the best movies I've ever seen.

We're total opposites - I thought BP was vastly overrated (possibly because it had so much hype built up before I saw it about 3 weeks after it was out).  I also think Guardians 2 is way too far over the top, so it would be nowhere near my top 5. Mine would look something like 1. Winter Soldier 2. Guardians 3. Thor: Ragnorok 4. Avengers 5. Civil War/Avengers 3

The good thing is, Marvel has put out enough movies that we can all have our favorites...

I saw it this week lol.

Anyways, yeah. You're wrong in my book, but that's what it is. I didn't mean to start a debate about this with that post, in fact I was doing the opposite - I hoped by saying "this is what I think and everything else is wrong", I'd be stopping any potential discussion as there really isn't anything I'm willing to discuss. This isn't to say I don't respect different opinions, and you are as entitled to yours as I am to mine, but I'm just saying I really can't see things from your point of view.



Faelco said:
AsGryffynn said:

Not lost on me, but if Lord Blockbuster says we have to many of his namesakes, odds are he has a point... 

But he's saying so while filming Avatar 2, 3 and 4. Very high level of hypocrisy. And he didn't complain about blockbusters but about superhero movies only IIRC. It's easy to understand him. The interest for Avatar sequels is already low, so he wants less competition to lower the flop chances. The only marketing plan for Avatar 2 so far is "the sequel of the biggest movie ever", it would be awful for him to lose that...

Actually, he'd be right either way. DC movies have been doing great, but everyone calls them a flop because they aren't the Avengers. Naturally, some people start getting annoyed when the bar is set at "the most popular franchise to date that is clearly overhyped". 

I liked the MCU for a while, then Civil War happened and I rage quitted. Given how GotG went, I was probably doing the right thing... 

 

Hint: Splashes of humor are alright. Enough humor to get a Comedy tag isn't.