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thismeintiel on 09 May 2018
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pikashoe said:
Mordred11 said:

The first avengers movie had less competition and was less frontloaded than Infinity War will end up being. IW is a sequel and is burning up demand faster.

You do realize that IW's opening weekend was $55M higher than Black Panther's OW, but IW's 2nd weekend #s that just came in are only 900k bigger than BP's 2nd weekend, right? IW will start losing in daily numbers to Black Panther today, and the later will eventually close the gap. This movie is definitely not gonna be " easily over 700M ".

EDIT: It actually started losing to Black Panther 2 days ago. BP's 2nd Saturday and Sunday were bigger. IW only had Friday over BP. If this movie hits $700M, which I have no reason to believe it will, it's gonna be a loooong stretch. Not gonna be easy at all.

So what are your thoughts now? Sunday was upped to over a million ahead of BP and it's remained ahead for monday and Tuesday. 

At the moment it's legs are very similar to BP's, with similar % percentage drops. I think next week BP will start closing the gap but I still feel that IW has a very good chance at hitting the 700 million mark.

Yea, I think late in the game, BP is going to start outperforming IW, mainly due to competition.  However, even if it starts slightly underperforming against BP, its going to take a little awhile for it to eat through that $50M+ gap its created.  It should end up pretty darn close to $700M, if it doesn't hit it.

Also, I think your prediction of $1.1B at the FBO is going to be too low.  It's tracking for an opening of $200M+ in China this weekend.  I think it's going to be pretty darn close to $1.1B, maybe even hitting it, after this weekend.