How much fast, we still waiting that "drop like a rock". :D

Its good that Switch isnt only handheld. :)

All I know is I predicted 40m with half in Japan before launch, but I think it's safe to say it'll at least beat that.

I think its not impossible. Nintendo has a plethora of first party games it can develop under its bag that makes it possible. The question will be how long will it take their smaller development teams to create games over time.

So far, they haven't released games from the Pokemon and Animal Crossing series. These two series are huge sellers with each iteration, especially Pokemon. Animal Crossing can tap into the young women demographic as it has shown to have tapped in Japan with New Leaf and with the mobile game, Pocket Camp. Pokemon is a beast with great potential, considering this will be the first ever home console Pokemon RPG game, let alone being in HD. And, there is a potential for Pokemon to have a couple more main series games on the Switch like the handhelds before.

Then you have 2D Mario, which has historically sold really well, even on failed consoles like the Wii U. I know a good amount of people in this particular forum are tired of 2D platformers on Nintendo consoles, but its hard to deny the success of the 2D Mario series.

Then you still have the potential for third party games like Monster Hunter (it would be dumb of Capcom to just release a 3DS port of XX and only in Japan), Dragon Quest, Ace Attorney, Professor Layton, SMT, etc. Not to mention potential third party support from smaller developers who developed games for the Vita and even manageable ports from current home consoles (i.e., Doom, Wolfenstein II, etc.). Imagine Soul Calibur VI since its being developed under UE4 or even DBFZ. So even though the third party support won't be on par with the PS4 or Xbone, I can see the support being solid like the 3DS or Wii w/o the stigma of having so many shovelware. There are already more games coming out on Switch than on Wii U during its early years.

Then you have potential price cuts, holiday bundles, and potential new features and games that could find new audiences like Nintendo Labo. Imagine schools using Switch and Labo to develop different kinds of projects.

The potential is there.

Ask me after year three. It's too early.

The Wii has its potential chopped off at the end. Nintendo could have kept support going a lot longer than it did, but effectively ended the Wii generation after 2010, but didn’t release the Wii U until 2012. 2011 basically had Zelda and Kirby; Xenoblade may have had its western release in 2011, but development finished a year prior. Zelda was late due to developmental difficulties. Proper support for the console had ended in the previous year and sales dropped off like a rock.

Had Nintendo continued supporting the Wii properly, and had released a Wii HD for higher tier versions of software as well as higher end third party games, then the Wii would have done A LOT better than it did - the Wii U was a misstep, half baked, and shoehorned in with the “asymmetric gameplay” thing that they marketed as a the next big idea to justify the one gamepad.

The Wii still has the highest selling year of any home console in history, and third highest selling year overall (only the DS is ahead). The interesting part of Switch’s fiscal 2009, with those 24M+ numbers, is that it had been supply constrained nearly the full year - it could have outsold the DS that year as the December in the following year is the highest selling December of any gaming console ever, including handhelds. Fiscal 2011 was still over 15 million, but by fiscal 2013 sales had dropped to under 4 million (still better than the Wii U’s best year though).

To answer the question:
If Nintendo buggers Switch up like the Wii U, then Switch will sell less due to it not having the same magnitude of heat the Wii had in 2006 to 2010. If Nintendo does what they should do, support Switch properly with dual versions of software during the transition - or even iterate on the hardware (more like their handhelds, or iOS and Android) instead of a massive generational hardware and platform shift, then it would be difficult to see Nintendo selling below 100M. The Switch is a new type of device and is attracting a new type of crowdehile bringing back much of the former Wii crowd that they had lost with the Wii U.

No it won't.

It could with a larger life span than Wii.

I actually think it's possible, I just want to know what will drive those sales? If it happen's it will most likely be because of a longer life span than normal without a successor and it not dying off as abruptly as the Wii. As for selling at the rate of the Wii or the DS?, not a chance.

By "everyone and their moms" it means casual buyers. People who don't play games often or ever. This explains the surplus sales of the Wii and DS and games like Brain Age and Nintendogs. The reason PS consoles sell so well is because the core console market is solidified (about 170-180 million buyers). PS and Xbox substitute eachothers sales. What Nintendo has been doing since the Wii is totally seperate. It's not rocket science.

What’s a casual buyer?