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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction League Thread - 2021

Dang, 71% I totally goofed the Vita prediction and that dragged me down. Still 98% acuracy on X1 ! Since this was the first round I'm not even mad, I overestimated both Switch and PS4 but I did ok on 3DS

 

Since I think I am one of the people who got one of the highest accuracies on a single platform prediction why don't we introduce a bonus from the next round for the person that gets closer on a single prediction ?

Last edited by Luke888 - on 25 April 2018

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PDF said:

Just noticed the drop down to view the all-time leaderboard

 

Leaderboard
UserAccuracyWinnings
oliist 71.60% vg$137,760
nordlead 70.06% vg$119,574
Tbone 61.86% vg$63,074
zexen_lowe 67.68% vg$54,407
non-gravity 66.60% vg$30,921
PDF 64.61% vg$21,902
BHR-3 70.43% vg$16,640
dxc 64.26% vg$7,637
MANUELF 61.02% vg$7,392
shogia 70.23% vg$5,065

Oliist and Nordlead made out like gangbusters. Now that they are gone maybe I can gain a few spots.  My accuracy is lower than I would like but I never focused much on that if my winning ratio was high.  If I am making safe bets the payout will be there.   

It will probably go much faster once software will be added to climb the alltime board



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

I'm claiming victory for that round, due to having the best WinPercent.

That's what counts, right?



                            

http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions/enter.php?game=261

It says the end date is today, but I can't predict today. Can I suggest a small change to the way it's worded? As an example - "Make sure your predictions are in before the 25th April 2018."



                            

Carl said:
I'm claiming victory for that round, due to having the best WinPercent.

That's what counts, right?

You're only #29 in accuracy though.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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Carl said:
http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions/enter.php?game=261

It says the end date is today, but I can't predict today. Can I suggest a small change to the way it's worded? As an example - "Make sure your predictions are in before the 25th April 2018."

Its open did you bet more then 4k vg$ ?

 

Edit you are right looks bugged! Ill check



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 said:

 Your Winnings

Winnings are determined by your prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy for a each prediction is calculated as the difference between your prediction and actual figure / actual figure. The prediction accuracy for each prediction is divided by the average accuracy across all users for that prediction and then this ratio is multiplied by your bet on that prediction. This is totalled up over the 15 predictions. An example is the best way to illustrate. Example:

You predict a game will sell 175,000 copies for the week and the game actually sells 200,000. So, we take the difference between your prediction and the actual sales and divide it by the actual sales 25,000 / 200,000. The result, 0.125, represents the percentage your prediction was off from the actual (12.5% off). Subtracting this number from 1 (one represents being wholly accurate) tells us how close or accurate your prediction is to the actual: 1 - 0.125 = 0.875 or 87.5% accurate. Note that if your prediction is off by more than the actual amount (i.e., off by more than 100%), your accuracy will be 0% representing the fact that you were simply not accurate in your prediction (e.g., you predict 100,000 and the actual is 30,000). Your accuracy is then divided by the average accuracy for that prediction, in this case say 50% (100,000 as the average prediction) to give (87.5/50) then multiplied by your original bet. So if you bet vg$10 on this prediction, you would win 10 x (87.5/50) = vg$17.50 (a net profit of vg$7.50 against the original bet). This is repeated across all your bets and totalled up.

Hmm, if I understand this right, we all (well most) were saved by fedfed, whose bets messed up the average, so that pretty much each other prediction was better than this average. So big thanks to fedfed, who took the fall for all of us.

Hmm, with this live example I understand much better how it all works. So I should put in a high bet, if I think the average is WAAAAYYY off.

A thing is though, you should consider using the median instead of the average. With the median single outliers don't affect the result much. On the other hand, this would make the prediction league very hard, so maybe keep the easy mode with averages.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

^ this will correct itself once users get to know it better. I already took out some hefty outliers the average of the psv used to be above 40k hehehe



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

And to confirm round 3 looks bugged ill see what i can do to fix it. As last resort i could edit the predictions for you it if it isnt fixed before normal closing period.
Ill keep you all in the loop



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 said:
Carl said:
http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions/enter.php?game=261

It says the end date is today, but I can't predict today. Can I suggest a small change to the way it's worded? As an example - "Make sure your predictions are in before the 25th April 2018."

Its open did you bet more then 4k vg$ ?

 

Edit you are right looks bugged! Ill check

1400 vg$

Tag me in here when or if it's fixed.