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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction League Thread - 2021

Mnementh on 26 April 2018
kirby007 said:

 Your Winnings

Winnings are determined by your prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy for a each prediction is calculated as the difference between your prediction and actual figure / actual figure. The prediction accuracy for each prediction is divided by the average accuracy across all users for that prediction and then this ratio is multiplied by your bet on that prediction. This is totalled up over the 15 predictions. An example is the best way to illustrate. Example:

You predict a game will sell 175,000 copies for the week and the game actually sells 200,000. So, we take the difference between your prediction and the actual sales and divide it by the actual sales 25,000 / 200,000. The result, 0.125, represents the percentage your prediction was off from the actual (12.5% off). Subtracting this number from 1 (one represents being wholly accurate) tells us how close or accurate your prediction is to the actual: 1 - 0.125 = 0.875 or 87.5% accurate. Note that if your prediction is off by more than the actual amount (i.e., off by more than 100%), your accuracy will be 0% representing the fact that you were simply not accurate in your prediction (e.g., you predict 100,000 and the actual is 30,000). Your accuracy is then divided by the average accuracy for that prediction, in this case say 50% (100,000 as the average prediction) to give (87.5/50) then multiplied by your original bet. So if you bet vg$10 on this prediction, you would win 10 x (87.5/50) = vg$17.50 (a net profit of vg$7.50 against the original bet). This is repeated across all your bets and totalled up.

Oh, I realized I have a question regarding the underlined. What if the average accuracy for one console is 0% (average is more than double the actual sales). Do we get infinite amounts of VG$ in that case, if we have an accuracy above 0%? Say my accuracy is 1%, average is 0% and my bet is 10$. The formula says then (1/0)*10.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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kirby007 on 26 April 2018
Mnementh said:
kirby007 said:

 Your Winnings

Winnings are determined by your prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy for a each prediction is calculated as the difference between your prediction and actual figure / actual figure. The prediction accuracy for each prediction is divided by the average accuracy across all users for that prediction and then this ratio is multiplied by your bet on that prediction. This is totalled up over the 15 predictions. An example is the best way to illustrate. Example:

You predict a game will sell 175,000 copies for the week and the game actually sells 200,000. So, we take the difference between your prediction and the actual sales and divide it by the actual sales 25,000 / 200,000. The result, 0.125, represents the percentage your prediction was off from the actual (12.5% off). Subtracting this number from 1 (one represents being wholly accurate) tells us how close or accurate your prediction is to the actual: 1 - 0.125 = 0.875 or 87.5% accurate. Note that if your prediction is off by more than the actual amount (i.e., off by more than 100%), your accuracy will be 0% representing the fact that you were simply not accurate in your prediction (e.g., you predict 100,000 and the actual is 30,000). Your accuracy is then divided by the average accuracy for that prediction, in this case say 50% (100,000 as the average prediction) to give (87.5/50) then multiplied by your original bet. So if you bet vg$10 on this prediction, you would win 10 x (87.5/50) = vg$17.50 (a net profit of vg$7.50 against the original bet). This is repeated across all your bets and totalled up.

Oh, I realized I have a question regarding the underlined. What if the average accuracy for one console is 0% (average is more than double the actual sales). Do we get infinite amounts of VG$ in that case, if we have an accuracy above 0%? Say my accuracy is 1%, average is 0% and my bet is 10$. The formula says then (1/0)*10.

Great question! There are actually some caps both on winnings and losses but that only happens in extreme cases i remember somewhere in the thread pdf linked we had something like that happen were there should have been a payout of close to 50k on a 1k bet, the end payout was nowhere near that cant find the page on which we found that out tho



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 on 26 April 2018

And round 3 should be closed



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 on 26 April 2018
Luke888 said:

Dang, 71% I totally goofed the Vita prediction and that dragged me down. Still 98% acuracy on X1 ! Since this was the first round I'm not even mad, I overestimated both Switch and PS4 but I did ok on 3DS

 

Since I think I am one of the people who got one of the highest accuracies on a single platform prediction why don't we introduce a bonus from the next round for the person that gets closer on a single prediction ?

Dont think i missed this post, but i cant add vg$ myself to the best predictor for each item, i could ask Talonman but then he needs to manually do that. 

Besides then i also need to check all predictions to see whose closest on which unit, which is also very time intensive because the singulair predictions arent in one results table like winnings, total accuracy and winningsratio are.

 

It might happen but not soon



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Luke888 on 26 April 2018
kirby007 said:
Luke888 said:

Dang, 71% I totally goofed the Vita prediction and that dragged me down. Still 98% acuracy on X1 ! Since this was the first round I'm not even mad, I overestimated both Switch and PS4 but I did ok on 3DS

 

Since I think I am one of the people who got one of the highest accuracies on a single platform prediction why don't we introduce a bonus from the next round for the person that gets closer on a single prediction ?

Dont think i missed this post, but i cant add vg$ myself to the best predictor for each item, i could ask Talonman but then he needs to manually do that. 

Besides then i also need to check all predictions to see whose closest on which unit, which is also very time intensive because the singulair predictions arent in one results table like winnings, total accuracy and winningsratio are.

 

It might happen but not soon

Would it be too much work to make the website find the "single prediction winner" of each round ?

Last edited by Luke888 - on 26 April 2018

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kirby007 on 26 April 2018

Lets call in the mastermind @Talonman this kinda relates what we talked about



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 on 27 April 2018

new round added WW week for 12th of may



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 on 29 April 2018

Japanese round of 5 may closes this week



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 on 01 May 2018

you mean like .... won 5,10 vg$?



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

kirby007 on 01 May 2018

Two more days before the next round closes



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.