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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Predition Achieved: Zelda has outsold Mario! (BotW vs. Odyssey)

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Why didn't I comment in the thread a year before? I probably thought it was too obvious Zelda would do that.



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S.Peelman said:
Look, I'd love to, but no. Odyssey will breeze to 20m, while your 16.5m for BotW is a tall order, even combined with the WiiU version.

My hesitation blinded me.

Odyssey will still reach 20m though, it’ll sell forever. Even if it will be at a snail’s pace at some point, it’ll reach 20m. Breath of the Wild combined seems like it actually has a shot at a number that high too, though I remain less confident. On Switch alone though I don’t think so.

Hopefully this will again prove to be too pessimistic on my part lol.



Unprecedented for a zelda game. It's crazy, I thought that after Skyward Sword the franchise was dead, but here it is competing with Mario for the best selling single player game on the Switch!

That said, I predict Odyssey will beat BoTW when it's all said and done because:
1. Mario games always always still sell well 3,4,5 years after launch. Odyssey I feel will have that.
2. Zelda BOTW 2 will eat away from the original sales. Unless Odyssey gets a sequel, I see BOTW sales trailing off.

STILL, what an achievement! Very well earned for a gorgeous game.



It's definitely outpacing odyssey at the moment, but it's not impossible that odyssey eventually retakes the lead. The sequel to BOTW might cut it's legs, though by then the damage may already be done, and for all we know a sequel to Odyssey might be on the way too.



I think both games are pretty amazing in sales, I did not expect Odyssey to surpass 15 million based on past 3D Mario sales. I am not as surprised to see BOtW surpass Odyssey, Nintendo got it really right with that game.

I believe those expecting BOTW 2 to cut the first game’s sales are right, but let’s not forget that it was a one minute teaser. I don’t expect it to release before Christmas 2020, and it could go even later.

edit: surprised we are past 15 million for Odyssey, let alone 16.



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Wyrdness said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The prediction has been fulfilled!  

I originally predicted Breath of the Wild (Switch + Wii U combined) would outsell Super Mario Odyssey.  Last Wii U sales figures reported were 1.5m for Zelda: BotW.  Adding this to the Switch totals yields the table below.

BotW vs. Odyssey sales (in millions)

3/31/2018 3/31/2019 6/30/2019
Mario Odyssey 10.41 14.44 14.94
Breath of the Wild 9.98 14.27 15.11
Zelda lead -0.43 -0.17 0.17

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (combined) has outsold Super Mario Odyssey as of June 30, 2019!

This actually happened even faster than I thought.  Zelda has some amazing legs.  I guess now I'll have to keep watching to see if the Switch only version of Zelda can outsell Odyssey on its own.  Breath of the Wild really is an amazing game.

WiiU total is at least 2m because VGC last reported 1.5m but we know from the Japanese sales threads that at least another 500k was sold after that before it stopped charting.

That is a good point.  I'll have to check the Japanese sales threads to see if Zelda sales are even higher.



kopstudent89 said:
Unprecedented for a zelda game. It's crazy, I thought that after Skyward Sword the franchise was dead, but here it is competing with Mario for the best selling single player game on the Switch!

That said, I predict Odyssey will beat BoTW when it's all said and done because:
1. Mario games always always still sell well 3,4,5 years after launch. Odyssey I feel will have that.
2. Zelda BOTW 2 will eat away from the original sales. Unless Odyssey gets a sequel, I see BOTW sales trailing off.

STILL, what an achievement! Very well earned for a gorgeous game.

Are 2 type of Mario Bros. Games. 

a) the 3d AAA games.

Frontloaded sales. In 2, 3 years go down very hard. (12-18 million seller type)

b) the 2d AA games

Nintendo doesn't release anymore. Sells the entire generation. Last One: New Super Mario Bros. Wii. (30 million seller type) 

All other successors "new" formula it's the second team B Game with bad innovations. 

Are 2 type of Zelda Games

a) the classic open-world (rudimentary) Zelda and BOTW combat and exploration oriented.

Sells the entire generation. (BotW maybe will sell 20M+)

b) Aonuma's Zelda puzzle-oriented. 

Sells badly, unless have AAA investment and great concepts. 

Last edited by Agente42 - on 01 August 2019

and the day had come 



BotW will sell 30mil and SMO will sell 25mil



(I updated the first post witht an abridged version of the following.)

Milestone #2: Zelda beats Mario on Switch alone.

My original prediction was that Super Mario Odyssey would be outsold by Breath of the Wild combined Wii U + Switch sales.  Well now it doesn't even need Wii U sales to help it.  Zelda just plain outsold Mario on the Switch alone.  Currently, official Nintendo numbers has Zelda and Mario even at 17.41m, but they list Zelda above Mario on their "Top Selling Switch Titles" page.  I suspect that Zelda is above Mario, but by less than 10,000 units, so they look the same after rounding.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html

I thought it would be useful to put Zelda quarterly totals here.  There are a couple of times when sales are up YoY when compared to the previous quarter.

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild quarterly sales (in millions)

2017 2018 2019 2020
March 31 2.76 1.78 1.09 1.07
June 30 1.16 0.84 0.84
Sept 30 0.78 0.96 0.93
Dec 31 2 1.4 1.8

EDIT: Going to put Mario's sales here too.

Super Mario Odyssey quarterly sales (in millions)

2017 2018 2019 2020
March 31 1.34 0.68 0.82
June 30 0.76 0.5
Sept 30 1 0.44
Dec 31 9.07 1.59 1.21

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 10 May 2020