By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Predition Achieved: Zelda has outsold Mario! (BotW vs. Odyssey)

Tagged games:

spurgeonryan said:
Odyssey will keep selling for years. Unless Zelda does something it has never done before, Mario will easily beat it. I had a guy buy a switch the other day. Even he almost picked up Mario over Zelda for handiest game but ultimately got NBA instead.

And Breath of the Wild did what no Zelda game before it has done =P

Last edited by Jumpin - on 16 October 2020

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Around the Network

Now I wonder if BOTW is going to be able to outsell Smash



mZuzek said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Mario Odyssey will have maximum sales of 16m.

What a failure.

Seriously though, this has to go down as one of the greatest VGC predictions. Going back through the first few pages, not even a single person believed you were right, most ridiculed you. Myself included. Crow well served, dude.

On another note, love this guy saying Zelda games were selling poorly because of Aonuma's misdirection, and BotW sold well because they made Fujibayashi director. Except, you know, Fujibayashi also directed Skyward Sword.

Thanks.

I did really undershoot that Mario Odyssey prediction though.  Something I have noticed since I made this thread is that Switch has a "rising tide will lift all boats" effect.  Even on a game where fans complain, like Pokemon Sword/Shield, it still ends up being one of the better selling entries.  Then if you get a game that fans really like, such as Mario Odyssey or Fire Emblem, then it can end up being the best selling entry of the series.  And if you get a game good enough that people call it "best of the series" like Zelda or Smash Bros or Animal Crossing, then sales really rocket up beyond what people can even imagine.



Animal Crossing vs. Mario Kart 8 will be a good battle as both look like they'll soon be in the 30M+ category.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

mZuzek said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Mario Odyssey will have maximum sales of 16m.

What a failure.

Seriously though, this has to go down as one of the greatest VGC predictions. Going back through the first few pages, not even a single person believed you were right, most ridiculed you. Myself included. Crow well served, dude.

On another note, love this guy saying Zelda games were selling poorly because of Aonuma's misdirection, and BotW sold well because they made Fujibayashi director. Except, you know, Fujibayashi also directed Skyward Sword.

I believed in him lol. Did you not read my post? ;)

edit; oh well i read more and I doubted though I could of sworn I thought the same as OP lmao

Last edited by tbone51 - on 17 October 2020

Around the Network

It's been a while since I've updated this thread.  I put together some info on Zelda BotW and Mario Odyssey based on Switch hardware sales.  All data comes from Nintendo's quarterly reports.  Numbers are in millions and BotW data only includes the Switch version.

Date Switch  Sw total Zelda Z. total Mario M. Total
3/31/2017 2.74 2.74 2.76 2.76
6/30/2017 1.96 4.7 1.16 3.92
9/30/2017 2.93 7.63 0.78 4.7
12/31/2017 7.23 14.86 2 6.7 9.07 9.07
3/31/2018 2.93 17.79 1.78 8.48 1.34 10.41
6/30/2018 1.88 19.67 0.84 9.32 0.76 11.17
9/30/2018 3.19 22.86 0.96 10.28 1 12.17
12/31/2018 9.41 32.27 1.4 11.68 1.59 13.76
3/31/2019 2.47 34.74 1.09 12.77 0.68 14.44
6/30/2019 2.13 36.87 0.84 13.61 0.5 14.94
9/30/2019 4.8 41.67 0.93 14.54 0.44 15.38
12/31/2019 10.82 52.49 1.8 16.34 1.21 16.59
3/31/2020 3.28 55.77 1.07 17.41 0.82 17.41
6/30/2020 5.67 61.44 1.19 18.6 0.65 18.06
9/30/2020 6.86 68.3 1.14 19.74 0.93 18.99
12/31/2020 11.57 79.87 1.71 21.45 1.24 20.23
3/31/2021 4.72 84.59 0.83 22.28 0.6 20.83
6/30/2021 4.45 89.04 0.92 23.2 0.57 21.4
9/30/2021 3.83 92.87 0.93 24.13 0.55 21.95

Trendline Software Projections based on Switch Hardware Sales (in millions)

Switch Zelda Mario
100 24.76 22.61
110 26.27 23.59
120 27.73 24.53
130 29.14 25.42
140 30.51 26.27
150 31.85 27.09
160 33.15 27.88
170 34.42 28.65
180 35.67 29.39
190 36.88 30.10
200 38.08 30.80
Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 01 December 2021

Well done! I could never have imagined this to ever happen



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(


Jumpin said:

Both games will be the highest selling in their category (Legend of Zelda and 3D Mario). While Zelda is certainly the more groundbreaking of the two - and I would even argue the more widely appealing, it is up against the latest flagship title of the best selling and most well known video game character in history.

Well, my interests were clearly in favour of Zelda. I felt it had the tools to beat Mario. But I didn't commit to saying Breath of the Wild would certainly beat Mario.

I definitely wanted Breath of the Wild to win, as I don't really like Odyssey that much :D

It's not that I hate Odyssey, I just found it lacked the same sort of magic as the Galaxy games. I did find Breath of the Wild to be a very magical experience. So, if anything, I had a personal enjoyment bias toward Breath of the Wild.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Actual bold prediction accomplished!



tbone51 said:
Jumpin said:

I believe Breath of the Wild will sell 1 million, eclipsing Odyssey’s count. The Switch will return to Nintendo’s glory days, we can expect to see games surpassing 1 million copies.

Where did this all originate from Jumpin?

I admit I miscalculated a little... and perhaps was less familiar with sales data than I should have been. Now that I know better, and have studied sources like Famitsu, VG Charts, and NPD... as well as population growth rebuttals against Malthus's Essay on the Principals of Population, Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations, Karl Marx's Das Kapital, and the Drake equation... I'm revising my Breath of the Wild sales prediction to 100 billion units.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 05 December 2021

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.