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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Predition Achieved: Zelda has outsold Mario! (BotW vs. Odyssey)

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I thought this was a Tbone51 thread



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I don't think so... but both will have fantastic sales for sure! They'll be the best selling games in their lines.

Mario Odyssey I can see doing 20+ million while I can't see Zelda going much past the likes of 15 million.

A Zelda Botw bundle would sure do crazy numbers though if it gets one at some point.

Last edited by Green098 - on 10 March 2018

Zelda’s legs are actually better than Odyssey’s in Japan for some time. But I think Odyssey will easily cross 20m, and that’s a tall order for Zelda.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Your conclusion that BotW must sell 2.5 times that of Zelda on NES is completely nonsensical and is not backed up by your arguments. Your only numerical evidence for this is US population growth and Switch's worldwide appeal. The US population has only grown by a factor of 1.35 since 1986, and population growth would actually help Odyssey to a greater extent than it would help BotW because 3D Mario is more popular in the US than 3D Zelda. As for worldwide appeal, even if Switch becomes just as popular in Europe as it is in North America, that wouldn't let it reach 16.5 million.

4 million (Ocarina of Time, NA) * 1.35 (US population growth) * 2 (Europe turns into NA) + 1.7 million (Zelda NES, JP) + 1 million (Optimistic RoW) = 13.5 million

Of course, it doesn't even matter just how well Breath of the Wild does, because Odyssey is going to do better. In Japan, Odyssey is 700k ahead of BotW, which is an even greater lead than what Odyssey has in the US. The original Zelda on NES is still the best-selling Zelda game in Japan, and Odyssey is already ahead of that. You list Ocarina of Time as a previous Zelda game to have this kind of impact, but Super Mario 64 was still more popular than Ocarina of Time in every region. The US is BotW's best region, and Amazon shows that Odyssey is consistently outselling it there.

Finally, that Odyssey bundle sold nowhere near 3 million. If you look at the US Amazon charts, it was behind both of the $300 bundles in October, and then completely dropped out of the top 100 in November, never to return. It didn't even reach one third of Switch sales during its best month, so it is baffling that you think it accounted for more than 40% of Switch sales over the entire holiday quarter.



I say zelda has no chance to beat Mario. More casuals and people overall know the character Mario over Link. Mario is just a juggernaut



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Both games will be the highest selling in their category (Legend of Zelda and 3D Mario). While Zelda is certainly the more groundbreaking of the two - and I would even argue the more widely appealing, it is up against the latest flagship title of the best selling and most well known video game character in history.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

PwerlvlAmy said:
I say zelda has no chance to beat Mario. More casuals and people overall know the character Mario over Link. Mario is just a juggernaut

If i were to tell you BotW is outselling SMO in "Japan"  now weekly despite the former being 1year old would you believe me? :P



Considering Zelda was released before Mario and has already been passed by it, it is unlikely that will happen



tbone51 said:
PwerlvlAmy said:
I say zelda has no chance to beat Mario. More casuals and people overall know the character Mario over Link. Mario is just a juggernaut

If i were to tell you BotW is outselling SMO in "Japan"  now weekly despite the former being 1year old would you believe me? :P

But Mario up to this point has always been a slowburn.   Then again, I don't think Mario ever sold 8 million copies within just a few months and BOTW is quickly making its way to becoming the best selling single platform Zelda of all time....

I think Mario will still win in the end though. The sales have been very strong for both and they are still selling very well.



The only chance BotW outsell Mario Od is if there's no more Zelda games on the switch and that Mario Od 2 releases



If it isn't turnbased it isn't worth playing   (mostly)

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