By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Predition Achieved: Zelda has outsold Mario! (BotW vs. Odyssey)

Tagged games:

IcaroRibeiro said:
Agente42 said:

You can demonstrate first your argument? Have any numbers, research? 

Can you prove otherwise? It's a over 30 years old game, and people 80% of people who own Switch in USA are 34 or less years old:

Source: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/171031_2e.pdf

It's unfortunate I don't have a newer source, these numbers are now 26 months outdated, But they came out when BOTW was around for 1 year already

Of course each game has it own sales demographics, but I don't see why Zelda buyers would be considerably older than average 

Plus, even if you're taking into account the newer players (people younger than 35 years) that played the original Zelda in some pirate emulator, virtual console whatsoever how can you make sure these people that played the first Zelda find this specific game design any better than the subsequent Zelda games such as ALTTP, Ocarina of Time, Wind Waker, etc and indeed prefer the first Zelda game to any other of Zelda games?

Seems like the argument you want to sustain is the first Zelda game was loved, they changed the direction due to some console limitations and it was successful for a while (Ocarina of Time) and then people get bored of the OoT formula and wanted Zelda to back to their origins. But honestly, this "return of origins helped to increase sales" point doesn't hold any steam.

I think I agree with what you said about Aonuma's formula making Zelda losing potential gamers. It's true, any game have it's own target demographic and not all kinds of games will meet the same public reception. What I disagree is that backing to their origins is what changed that scenario. IMO, what make BOTW stand out was the incorporation of modern game design elements into its gameplay

People who were Zelda fans loved Zelda they knew, and the Zelda they knew is (mostly) the Zelda of Ocarina of Time onwards. OoT was the 4th best N64 seller for a reason, and it rivaled Mario 64 and Mario Kart 64, so it's quite meaningful. Ocarina of Time for 3DS sold over 6 million copies and it was a storming remaster, Majora's Mask for 3DS sold 3 million copies about the same as the original game. The Wind Waker 2.5 million in a flop system

My only conclusion of this is the "potential gamers" who jumped into BOTW aren't Original Zelda fans/players, they are brand new players who discovered some years ago that open world and exploration games are great and then give BOTW a try because of the awesome world of mouth and reviews. Or even better, it was their first open-world game and again they give it a try because of the already mentioned great world of mouth/reviews. 

First, is your argument not mine. You can't demonstrate your argument: young and mid 30 people don't play Legend of Zelda. It no elucidates. So it's only a theory, a  theory because it doesn't have numbers, studies, research, history can prove it. 

I demonstrate with numbers, NES mini sells well(scalper anywhere can prove this). I demonstrate with tendency: when a game based on this root, likewise Mario Kart tends to sell well, plus expansion and penetration, sells better than his predecessor. Nintendo games tend to go well when based on the roots.  I demonstrate with a counterpoint: Zelda is away from his roots, with Aonuma makes trains and try to take Link sword off, etc. Aonuma never understands Zelda roots, because of this, the franchise is in decline, even with the market expansion and the penetration of new markets made by Nintendo, she does not transform Zelda in success, otherwise, Skyward Sword sells only 4 million, Aonuma rip overworld in Zelda completely and the sales fall down a cliff ( reflecting the considerable increase in sales of other games, such as Mario Kart, Smash, 3d Mario).  I demonstrate with games history: Nes was a phenomenon, even though it sold only 60 million, because of Famiclones ( more than 350 individual models) and piracy cartridges. NES market was much bigger than the official distribution. 

And BotW back to origins because the original Zelda is that: arcade games plus PC games. The first and second Zelda and BoTW have the same feature: a fusion arcade game( Nintendo origins) with the modern PC gamer in the moment ( Ultima, Wilzardly in first Zelda and second Zelda.  Minecraft, Terraria and Skyrim for BotW). Back to origins brings ex gamers, then ex-gamers bring new gamers. That's the expand the market. And the demo of BoTW based in The Legend of Zelda brings the roots in evidence.



Around the Network
spurgeonryan said:
Odyssey will keep selling for years. Unless Zelda does something it has never done before, Mario will easily beat it. I had a guy buy a switch the other day. Even he almost picked up Mario over Zelda for handiest game but ultimately got NBA instead.

And Breath of the Wild did what no Zelda game before it has done =P

Last edited by Jumpin - on 16 October 2020

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Now I wonder if BOTW is going to be able to outsell Smash



mZuzek said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Mario Odyssey will have maximum sales of 16m.

What a failure.

Seriously though, this has to go down as one of the greatest VGC predictions. Going back through the first few pages, not even a single person believed you were right, most ridiculed you. Myself included. Crow well served, dude.

On another note, love this guy saying Zelda games were selling poorly because of Aonuma's misdirection, and BotW sold well because they made Fujibayashi director. Except, you know, Fujibayashi also directed Skyward Sword.

Thanks.

I did really undershoot that Mario Odyssey prediction though.  Something I have noticed since I made this thread is that Switch has a "rising tide will lift all boats" effect.  Even on a game where fans complain, like Pokemon Sword/Shield, it still ends up being one of the better selling entries.  Then if you get a game that fans really like, such as Mario Odyssey or Fire Emblem, then it can end up being the best selling entry of the series.  And if you get a game good enough that people call it "best of the series" like Zelda or Smash Bros or Animal Crossing, then sales really rocket up beyond what people can even imagine.



Animal Crossing vs. Mario Kart 8 will be a good battle as both look like they'll soon be in the 30M+ category.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Around the Network
mZuzek said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Mario Odyssey will have maximum sales of 16m.

What a failure.

Seriously though, this has to go down as one of the greatest VGC predictions. Going back through the first few pages, not even a single person believed you were right, most ridiculed you. Myself included. Crow well served, dude.

On another note, love this guy saying Zelda games were selling poorly because of Aonuma's misdirection, and BotW sold well because they made Fujibayashi director. Except, you know, Fujibayashi also directed Skyward Sword.

I believed in him lol. Did you not read my post? ;)

edit; oh well i read more and I doubted though I could of sworn I thought the same as OP lmao

Last edited by tbone51 - on 17 October 2020

It's been a while since I've updated this thread.  I put together some info on Zelda BotW and Mario Odyssey based on Switch hardware sales.  All data comes from Nintendo's quarterly reports.  Numbers are in millions and BotW data only includes the Switch version.

Date Switch  Sw total Zelda Z. total Mario M. Total
3/31/2017 2.74 2.74 2.76 2.76
6/30/2017 1.96 4.7 1.16 3.92
9/30/2017 2.93 7.63 0.78 4.7
12/31/2017 7.23 14.86 2 6.7 9.07 9.07
3/31/2018 2.93 17.79 1.78 8.48 1.34 10.41
6/30/2018 1.88 19.67 0.84 9.32 0.76 11.17
9/30/2018 3.19 22.86 0.96 10.28 1 12.17
12/31/2018 9.41 32.27 1.4 11.68 1.59 13.76
3/31/2019 2.47 34.74 1.09 12.77 0.68 14.44
6/30/2019 2.13 36.87 0.84 13.61 0.5 14.94
9/30/2019 4.8 41.67 0.93 14.54 0.44 15.38
12/31/2019 10.82 52.49 1.8 16.34 1.21 16.59
3/31/2020 3.28 55.77 1.07 17.41 0.82 17.41
6/30/2020 5.67 61.44 1.19 18.6 0.65 18.06
9/30/2020 6.86 68.3 1.14 19.74 0.93 18.99
12/31/2020 11.57 79.87 1.71 21.45 1.24 20.23
3/31/2021 4.72 84.59 0.83 22.28 0.6 20.83
6/30/2021 4.45 89.04 0.92 23.2 0.57 21.4
9/30/2021 3.83 92.87 0.93 24.13 0.55 21.95

Trendline Software Projections based on Switch Hardware Sales (in millions)

Switch Zelda Mario
100 24.76 22.61
110 26.27 23.59
120 27.73 24.53
130 29.14 25.42
140 30.51 26.27
150 31.85 27.09
160 33.15 27.88
170 34.42 28.65
180 35.67 29.39
190 36.88 30.10
200 38.08 30.80
Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 01 December 2021

Well done! I could never have imagined this to ever happen



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(

Jumpin said:

Both games will be the highest selling in their category (Legend of Zelda and 3D Mario). While Zelda is certainly the more groundbreaking of the two - and I would even argue the more widely appealing, it is up against the latest flagship title of the best selling and most well known video game character in history.

Well, my interests were clearly in favour of Zelda. I felt it had the tools to beat Mario. But I didn't commit to saying Breath of the Wild would certainly beat Mario.

I definitely wanted Breath of the Wild to win, as I don't really like Odyssey that much :D

It's not that I hate Odyssey, I just found it lacked the same sort of magic as the Galaxy games. I did find Breath of the Wild to be a very magical experience. So, if anything, I had a personal enjoyment bias toward Breath of the Wild.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Actual bold prediction accomplished!